INVEST 96L

[Canelaw99]

Not to take away the focus from Irene but I think that our main attention must be 96L as it will be a possible threat to some of the islands.

Luis, I thought we agreed you'd keep a storm away from PR these next 2 weeks. *tapping foot* The in-laws are headed there today for 10 days, and hubby and I are going next Fri. for a week. LOL We don't need a storm coming there or coming up this way to worry about. Could ya set up some fans for me? Please

[DESTRUCTION5]

Not to take away the focus from Irene but I think that our main attention must be 96L as it will be a possible threat to some of the islands.

i agree Luis..Its really getting its act together fast IMO..IR is looking like a LLC is formng relatively quickly..Could be a Cane affecting the islands in a few days!

[wxmann_91]

Look at the area of favorable MJO moving into the Atlantic and the area over 96L... Looks like the start is on the way...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

OOOpppsss.. forgot this



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Well interesting how that huge area of positive MJO a few days ago has split into three parts: one in the EPAC, one in the Atlantic, and one in the WPAC. And, according to a post by Derek Ortt a week back, with the dry MJO over the Date Line, Atlantic activity can now really start.

I am still having doubts, but shear is gradually decreasing over the Atlantic, and SST's are baking. Now the fun can really start across the Northern Hemisphere tropics (including the Pac and Atl)! (but for us Atlantic is the only we care about hehe)

[clfenwi]

Looks like the recon flight crews will get to pull more of that arduous St Croix duty

[Ivanhater]

i have a bad feeling about this one, not necessarily for me yet, but this thing looks to take off fast

[WindRunner]

As soon as some northerly winds show up on the quickscat, we should see a depression.

[JTD]

Not to take away the focus from Irene but I think that our main attention must be 96L as it will be a possible threat to some of the islands.

Luis, Remember how at about this time last week it was becoming clear that Irene would probably be a fish. Do you have any thoughts right now on if 96L will go fish like Irene or do you think the setup is different and this might do the wrong thing and not be a fish?

[dwg71]

I called fish early on Irene, and will stick with that. I wont make that same call on 96L. What I will say is that its not a GOMer. I would say east coast. Weakness left by Harvey and Irene should allow 96 to gain some lattitude. I could see it affecting northern leeward's.

[Normandy]

I called fish early on Irene, and will stick with that. I wont make that same call on 96L. What I will say is that its not a GOMer. I would say east coast. Weakness left by Harvey and Irene should allow 96 to gain some lattitude. I could see it affecting northern leeward's.

I think that rather foolish not to call it a GOMer (not saying it is, I wont call anything THAT far out). Things change, weaknesses can develop and fill in the ridge....its just too early.

[Ivanhater]

I called fish early on Irene, and will stick with that. I wont make that same call on 96L. What I will say is that its not a GOMer. I would say east coast. Weakness left by Harvey and Irene should allow 96 to gain some lattitude. I could see it affecting northern leeward's.

wow, this thing is not even a depression yet, and is at a very low latitude and your already rulling out a very big area......i think you dont have a clue what your talking about

[dwg71]

I called fish early on Irene, and will stick with that. I wont make that same call on 96L. What I will say is that its not a GOMer. I would say east coast. Weakness left by Harvey and Irene should allow 96 to gain some lattitude. I could see it affecting northern leeward's.

I think that rather foolish not to call it a GOMer (not saying it is, I wont call anything THAT far out). Things change, weaknesses can develop and fill in the ridge....its just too early.

I'm just making an early call. I've done it with every invest so far. Foolish??? No, just making a call. I'll make a call and stick with it, I wont Clinton on it. If it goes GOM, I'll be the first in line to say I blew it.

[Normandy]

I called fish early on Irene, and will stick with that. I wont make that same call on 96L. What I will say is that its not a GOMer. I would say east coast. Weakness left by Harvey and Irene should allow 96 to gain some lattitude. I could see it affecting northern leeward's.

I think that rather foolish not to call it a GOMer (not saying it is, I wont call anything THAT far out). Things change, weaknesses can develop and fill in the ridge....its just too early.

I'm just making an early call. I've done it with every invest so far. Foolish??? No, just making a call. I'll make a call and stick with it, I wont Clinton on it. If it goes GOM, I'll be the first in line to say I blew it.

Suit yourself. But its fairly easy to blow it when its this far out.

[dwg71]

I called fish early on Irene, and will stick with that. I wont make that same call on 96L. What I will say is that its not a GOMer. I would say east coast. Weakness left by Harvey and Irene should allow 96 to gain some lattitude. I could see it affecting northern leeward's.

wow, this thing is not even a depression yet, and is at a very low latitude and your already rulling out a very big area......i think you dont have a clue what your talking about

Yeah I heard you last night when you told me I didnt know what I was talking about with Irene "can't bust through ridge" talk. I said 11PM advisory would shift east and continue east, and it has. Yet, I dont have a clue?

[Ivanhater]

I called fish early on Irene, and will stick with that. I wont make that same call on 96L. What I will say is that its not a GOMer. I would say east coast. Weakness left by Harvey and Irene should allow 96 to gain some lattitude. I could see it affecting northern leeward's.

wow, this thing is not even a depression yet, and is at a very low latitude and your already rulling out a very big area......i think you dont have a clue what your talking about

Yeah I heard you last night when you told me I didnt know what I was talking about with Irene "can't bust through ridge" talk. I said 11PM advisory would shift east and continue east, and it has. Yet, I dont have a clue?

and i still dont think it will.....and you keep trumping that you called it irene a fish a long time ago, but you thought it would be a fish east of bermuda, wayyyy off of your call, so saying you said it was a fish from the start is misleading

[JTD]

OK, Back to 96L all I'm just trying to get an idea on the synoptic setup for 96L. Let's not talk about Irene here

[JamesFromMaine2]

I called fish early on Irene, and will stick with that. I wont make that same call on 96L. What I will say is that its not a GOMer. I would say east coast. Weakness left by Harvey and Irene should allow 96 to gain some lattitude. I could see it affecting northern leeward's.

wow, this thing is not even a depression yet, and is at a very low latitude and your already rulling out a very big area......i think you dont have a clue what your talking about

Yeah I heard you last night when you told me I didnt know what I was talking about with Irene "can't bust through ridge" talk. I said 11PM advisory would shift east and continue east, and it has. Yet, I dont have a clue?

Theres still nothing saying that Irene 100% WILL be a fish storm! Theres still some models having it make land fall so letting your guard down any where along the east coast IMO is totally stupid!

[dwg71]

Your right if, I lived in NC I would be prepared, but I dont so I'm not letting my guard down. I dont see it getting to the coast..

[cycloneye]

NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 96L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 12

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 10.9 41.1 270./14.0
6 11.1 42.0 286./ 9.5
12 11.4 42.8 292./ 7.7
18 11.8 43.4 297./ 7.5
24 11.9 44.1 287./ 6.4
30 12.6 44.3 340./ 6.8
36 13.2 44.6 336./ 6.5
42 13.7 44.8 331./ 5.3
48 14.1 45.0 339./ 4.9
54 14.7 45.2 336./ 5.9
60 15.2 45.4 341./ 5.3
66 15.7 46.0 315./ 8.0
72 16.3 46.5 320./ 7.2
78 17.0 47.1 316./ 9.3
84 17.7 47.7 322./ 8.8
90 18.4 48.4 315./10.0
96 19.3 49.0 324./10.1
102 20.1 49.7 319./10.7
108 20.9 50.3 323./10.0
114 21.7 51.0 321./10.0
120 22.7 51.6 326./11.5
126 23.7 52.3 326./12.0



12z GFDL shows a track away from the islands.

[dwg71]

NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 96L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 12

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 10.9 41.1 270./14.0
6 11.1 42.0 286./ 9.5
12 11.4 42.8 292./ 7.7
18 11.8 43.4 297./ 7.5
24 11.9 44.1 287./ 6.4
30 12.6 44.3 340./ 6.8
36 13.2 44.6 336./ 6.5
42 13.7 44.8 331./ 5.3
48 14.1 45.0 339./ 4.9
54 14.7 45.2 336./ 5.9
60 15.2 45.4 341./ 5.3
66 15.7 46.0 315./ 8.0
72 16.3 46.5 320./ 7.2
78 17.0 47.1 316./ 9.3
84 17.7 47.7 322./ 8.8
90 18.4 48.4 315./10.0
96 19.3 49.0 324./10.1
102 20.1 49.7 319./10.7
108 20.9 50.3 323./10.0
114 21.7 51.0 321./10.0
120 22.7 51.6 326./11.5
126 23.7 52.3 326./12.0



12z GFDL shows a track away from the islands.

Well away from GOM...

[Huckster]

Right now, there is a big trough digging in the central Atlantic...



Here's a loop of it...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/atwv.html

I haven't checked any of the models today other than what I saw on skeetobite, but that trough is not "good news" for this system if it develops soon and thinks it's going west, assuming the trough keeps digging. The Islands could be impacted, but I'd say it stays east of the GOM.