TD#10=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[sma10]

For our fellow members who live in the Leeward islands,BVI,USVI and Puerto Rico as I see this system move with the pattern now in the atlantic a deep oceanic trough in the central atlantic it is safe to say that the NE caribbean islands will not see TD#10/Jose in our neck of the woods.However I would continue to monitor it until it passes our latituds from 16n and above to 18n just in case but all indications is for the system to pass at a safe distance from the NE caribbean islands.

Er..just FYI, the 12Z Ukmet takes the system directly towards Puerto Rico. Not saying it's right, but just giving a little heads up.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[djones65]

I agree with most thus far....

This system in my opinion is deserving to be named a tropical storm... The center is embedded within the deep convection and surprisingly with developing systems the deep convection has maintained itself even as we are moving into the diurnal minimum for convective activity in the tropical Atlantic. However, the trof to its northwest will produce significant shear during the next 48 to 72 hours and I agree that the most significant question should be asked "will it survive?'

My belief is that this system will intensify for the next 24 hours before beginning to weaken late tomorrow. During its weakening stage it will track more to the west and a low level circulation will survive the long haul until it can pass west of the trof axis, or perhaps like someone said earlier, perhaps the trof will split with an upper low closing off near the Virgin Islands and the trof to the northeast will lift out... By mid-week TD10 should be north of Puerto Rico and will likely turn more west northwesterly.

If the intensification trend continues longer and this system becomes a significant cyclone then a more north northwest motion will likely ensue.

Bottom line in my opinion... This td is deserving of a name...

[cycloneye]

For our fellow members who live in the Leeward islands,BVI,USVI and Puerto Rico as I see this system move with the pattern now in the atlantic a deep oceanic trough in the central atlantic it is safe to say that the NE caribbean islands will not see TD#10/Jose in our neck of the woods.However I would continue to monitor it until it passes our latituds from 16n and above to 18n just in case but all indications is for the system to pass at a safe distance from the NE caribbean islands.

Er..just FYI, the 12Z Ukmet takes the system directly towards Puerto Rico. Not saying it's right, but just giving a little heads up.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

That inciation point of the model is off because already the low is around 14.5n not down at 12n where the 12z run starts.

[WindRunner]

I agree with most thus far....

This system in my opinion is deserving to be named a tropical storm... The center is embedded within the deep convection and surprisingly with developing systems the deep convection has maintained itself even as we are moving into the diurnal minimum for convective activity in the tropical Atlantic. However, the trof to its northwest will produce significant shear during the next 48 to 72 hours and I agree that the most significant question should be asked "will it survive?'

My belief is that this system will intensify for the next 24 hours before beginning to weaken late tomorrow. During its weakening stage it will track more to the west and a low level circulation will survive the long haul until it can pass west of the trof axis, or perhaps like someone said earlier, perhaps the trof will split with an upper low closing off near the Virgin Islands and the trof to the northeast will lift out... By mid-week TD10 should be north of Puerto Rico and will likely turn more west northwesterly.

If the intensification trend continues longer and this system becomes a significant cyclone then a more north northwest motion will likely ensue.

Bottom line in my opinion... This td is deserving of a name...

I agree with that first situation, as it is similar of the track/intensity for Irene. But with a more southerly formation, it will not recurve until after an -east coast landfall- (if one is to occur).

[sma10]

For our fellow members who live in the Leeward islands,BVI,USVI and Puerto Rico as I see this system move with the pattern now in the atlantic a deep oceanic trough in the central atlantic it is safe to say that the NE caribbean islands will not see TD#10/Jose in our neck of the woods.However I would continue to monitor it until it passes our latituds from 16n and above to 18n just in case but all indications is for the system to pass at a safe distance from the NE caribbean islands.

Er..just FYI, the 12Z Ukmet takes the system directly towards Puerto Rico. Not saying it's right, but just giving a little heads up.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

That inciation point of the model is off because already the low is around 14.5n not down at 12n where the 12z run starts.

Luis, you are correct. I also noticed that the initiation point was off. My point is that everyone has resigned themselves that recurve is obvious, but among the global models I've looked at (UK, Euro, GFS, CMC, NoGaps) I haven't seen any that show a recurve. At least not over the next 5 days. Perhaps with better initializations, we will get different results with the 0Z runs.

[Sanibel]

This system has really organized fast.


Right away shear blew the well-formed CDO off NNE.

From appearance alone this is most likely already a tropical storm. It has a much better satellite appearance than Irene...

[caribepr]

For our fellow members who live in the Leeward islands,BVI,USVI and Puerto Rico as I see this system move with the pattern now in the atlantic a deep oceanic trough in the central atlantic it is safe to say that the NE caribbean islands will not see TD#10/Jose in our neck of the woods.However I would continue to monitor it until it passes our latituds from 16n and above to 18n just in case but all indications is for the system to pass at a safe distance from the NE caribbean islands.

Thanks, Luis. Always watching, always glad to see them fly north.

[wxman57]

Looks like TD 10 is already moving NW this afternoon. Almost certainly not going to be a threat to the Caribbean. Probably a fish in the long-term. Slight chance it could reach the east U.S. Coast, like with Irene. The ridge across the Atlantic is just a bit weak now to drive it westward.

[bvigal]

Some more sat closeups from NHCC
IR - 12-frame loop
water vapor - 12-frame loop

[storms in NC]

as with Irene this too will go out to sea. I read some where that it is not a good year for East coast storms. Which is fine with me. Fish I will call it.

[Bocadude85]

I wouldnt write if off as a fish so fast, we have only had one advisory so far, and the NHC track shows it bending back to the wnw later on in the forecast period

[JamesFromMaine2]

How can you call a storm a fish when it just became a TD and is still a good week away from the USA? I think people are so use to all the Fish storms we have had this year that they just automaticaly assume it is one! IT IS STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO TELL WHAT THIS STORM IS GOING TO DO! Just watch it over the next week and see what happens it may become a fish storm but you can't just write it off this early out!

[x-y-no]

12Z European is buying itto the idea of turning WNW after a few days of NW movement.

(these images are from the Plymouth State site)


Surface level pressure (solid lines) overlayed with 500mb geopotential heights (dashed green lines)

5 days (valid 12Z Thursday):




6 days (valid 12Z Friday):




7 days (valid 12Z Saturday):

[WindRunner]

Wow, that seems very possible. First model I've seen to call that. Just thought I'd put a link in to a thread that forecasts something just like that:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=70456

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The thing looks almost as good as Irene. I highly think that its a tropical storm.

[gkrangers]

The southwesterly shear certainly isn't helping matters...

It may preclude the NHC from upgrading the storm, thinking it won't be able to sustain the convection, which is being blown off to the NE.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It never stoped them from given Irene its name. Also I was looking at the latest SAL maps. It shows that the whole Atlantic is starting to become favable. Only areas of it are around. To the north of this depression(storm) it has broken through. The SAL is a much bigger force in slowly tropical cyclone development then shear. In Irene made it through a deep SAL. Yes there is 20 knot shear with a small area to the northeast of 30 knot. But look at what the enviroment factors that have turned favabale for this system that Irene never had. In as it moves northwestward it also should escape even this SAL. Possible even do so with its shear. So I don't think this system is going to be distoryed.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html


One more thing is I think the MJO controls the SAL.

[wxmann_91]

It never stoped them from given Irene its name. Also I was looking at the latest SAL maps. It shows that the whole Atlantic is starting to become favable. Only areas of it are around. To the north of this depression(storm) it has broken through. The SAL is a much bigger force in slowly tropical cyclone development then shear. In Irene made it through a deep SAL. Yes there is 20 knot shear with a small area to the northeast of 30 knot. But look at what the enviroment factors that have turned favabale for this system that Irene never had. In as it moves northwestward it also should escape even this SAL. Possible even do so with its shear. So I don't think this system is going to be distoryed.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html


One more thing is I think the MJO controls the SAL.

IMHO shear is much more deadly to a TC than SAL. The only bad aspect of SAL is the easterly surge and dry air. Easterly surge can kill developing TC's, but not mature ones, and one only has to look at Emily to see that strong TC's can develop in extremely dry environments. Shear, on the other hand, cannot completely kill a major hurricane, but it can seriously hinder them. If you have any doubts then ask Derek Ortt, he will tell you that shear is much more deadly.

One other thing, MJO doesn't control the SAL, but it does limit the amount of convection over the Atlantic, allowing the SAL to be stronger and cross farther in the Atlantic.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The SAL cuts off the moisture/outflow to the system in which makes it easier for the shear to distory it. With out the SAL a tropical storm can normally hold up to 20 knot shear. Also it makes it alot easlier for more tropical distrabances to become depressions. Also the Mjo wet phase I believe moistens the Atmosphere killing off the SAL. But thats just my theory.

This system looks as good as Irene at the moment. Can't wait for t numbers.

[WeatherEmperor]

Hey guys check out the 00Z model output for the GFDL on TD10. What do you guys think of it?

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm