Tropical Depression forms by 8/21/21z

[WeatherEmperor]

Today's the day. Will 97L be the one? 9 hours and counting...

4 hours left. Not gonna happen imo.

I dont think so either. We are just gonna have to face the fact that it wont.

<RICKY>

[WindRunner]

Even if it doesn't develop, we could very well say it could seeing as one of the main inhibiting factors is its recent emerge from the coast. Had the system emerged just 12 hours sooner, than I have little doubt that Jim's forecast would have been correct.

[Ixolib]

T + 2.25 hours... I was pulling for 'ya Jim. If for no other reason than to gain a greater confidence in your relatively "newly presented" viewpoint on this particular phenomena.

[TPACane04]

well.....what's done is done. good ole' college try, Jim.

I'll even give you an additional 48 hours for something to pop (since you mentioned this as well in the early part of the thread)...and remember, the Gulf does not count..only Atlantic basin!

[caribepr]

I think it counts...as far as forecasts based on many things and as far as forecasts go.
The guy in Bermuda had his shark oil, and at one point the storm was 300 versus 100 miles off. This isn't horseshoes, almost does count here, in my opinion. Having had hurricanes ON the spot I was on and nothing really happening and having systems on the spot I was on and destruction happening - it isn't difficult to give some leeway (which is why I am so...wait and see-ish in my posts, as well as, calm down weather weenies!) As a good island friend told me, more than a few times, watch, wait, be prepared and make sure you can live without electric, water, bank, stores for 2 to 5 weeks or more. So I do, and watch.
So...we got an invest...and lots more in the offing. Close enough for me!

[senorpepr]

well.....what's done is done. good ole' college try, Jim.

I'll even give you an additional 48 hours for something to pop (since you mentioned this as well in the early part of the thread)...and remember, the Gulf does not count..only Atlantic basin!

Actually, the Gulf would count since it's a part of the Atlantic Basin.

[sertorius]

I don't post much in this forum-I'm from Kansas for goodness sakes and the only time I really worry about hurricanes is if one comes into Texas (well, I do show them to my students!!)-that being said, I think even if a TD forms by Wednesday or even Thursday, you have to give it up for Jim. I mean, we are talking about the weather not one of my students curfews on prom night. Things don't always form on a dime. We have mets in my area that have called for 14 inches of snow using sat pics, radar, hourly obs., all the models etc. 4 hours out and we wind up with flurries and partly sunny skies. If we have one by mid week, then Jim was onto something. Just my 2 cents.

[TPACane04]

I did not realize the Gulf is considered part of Atlantic Basin...interesting.

See, learn something new every day.

[Javlin]

Well Jim you were not off by much and from the most unsuspecting one out of the lot.Good job.

kevin

[senorpepr]

Hats off to Jim. I'll give him credit here. While most of us were focusing on the remnants of 10L or Invest 97L, a tropical depression formed out of the Bay of Campeche. Granted, he had a timing error of 19 hours, he still had a lead time of 72 hours. TWOs only forecast out 36 hours. Great job, Jim.

[cycloneye]

I also join to congratulate Jim on his prediction which came thru with only 19 hours of diference.

[Jim Hughes]

I just got back online for the first time since Sunday and I have to admit I was somewhat surprised by this forum's reaction in reference to when TD11 formed. You folks are okay ......

I had seen the TWC update late Monday afternoon but I was unaware of the exact formation time until this evening. I was glad that it formed within 72 hours but I was still rather disappointed. Believe me I have always been one of my toughest critics when it comes to forecasting accurately.

I was looking over some space weather data more closely on Sunday morning right before I left and I think I may have some understanding of the longer delay...just maybe...


I know this is just conjecture on my part but I sort of thought I might throw it out there to watch in case I make another formation forecast. I need to look over the data more thoroughly and then I will spell some things out.

Hey thanks again for all the kind words from everybody.


Jim

[Derecho]

Someone could easily do just as well making generic formation predictions at the peak of the season whilst completely ignoring all "spaceweather."

[Jim Hughes]

Someone could easily do just as well making generic formation predictions at the peak of the season whilst completely ignoring all "spaceweather."

I absolutely agree with you but what else can I do? I can only currently stand by my prior forecasting record until the the possible physical relationship is properly understood.

I also understand that talking about my prior record is a sticky situtation. Most people will disregard anything that they have not witnessed for themselves. So I have to start all over again when it comes to this forum before I can gain any respect.

I was making some headway in the TWC Tropics forum earlier in the season and I could have steered you to them but these were not brought back into the systems when the TWC came back online a short time ago after being down for almost two weeks.

But what about the relationships that I have been continually talking about since I joined this forum about five weeks ago. All tropical systems have formed during the weakening stages of the solar wind speed, below the 500 km/sec level. (Even though they can form when the solar wind is above the 500 km/sec level if the >2 Mev is above the 0.0e+07 level..like now...particle/ionosphere related)

Katrina started to make her march towards hurricane status after the solar wind speed (5 hour average) peaked around 24/23z. (704 km/sec).

I have talked about the similar relationship that aready formed tropical systems have compared to tropical waves. Tropical storms/hurricanes do not seem to like the solar wind speed rising above the 500 km/sec level and they get better organized /strengthen after the solar wind ends up peaking.

(The lone exception may be fish storms in north Atlantic...Irene...Solar wind/NAO research paper that I previously gave URL for may explain why. Feedbacks may be different...latitude dependent)

Okay...so the solar wind speed rose between 8/23/16z - 8/24/23z . But it was only rising very mildly until a strong solar windshock arrived at 8/24/6z. This was when it rose sharply above the 500 km/sec level (556)

Like I mentioned above it peaked around 24/23z. So Katrina became better organized/strengthened after the solar wind values peaked. (IMHO that the lag time of the solar wind speed effect is about 15 hours. )

This solar wind speed increase was related to the solar events that Alsakahuna wrote about in the Global forum..."Solar Activity Increases". CaptainCrunch noted the extreme geomagnetic storming that occured.

This increased solar activity/eruptions coincided with the fastest tropical development to hurricane status in over a month. Yesterday's M6.4/1N flare was the strongest x-ray flare since early August.

The proton levels at the > 10 Mev level was the strongest since July 14th and it exceeded those levels. I have spoken in this forum before about the effect that solar eruptions have on tropical systems...northeasters to....

The lag time effect seems to show up approximately 36 hours from what I have both seen and researched. This is when tropical systems seem to most often rise to the major status very quickly.

Although one must also take into consideration the magnetic field vectors in relation to the origins of these events and CME/limb direction.

So once again a relationship has shown it's face. I have continually stated that Dr. Gray is seeing relationships in other parts of the world , months in advance, and they are related to the cyclical nature of certain kinds of space weather. He uses March readings allot....Delayed effects from earlier events.


A 154 day avg. periodicity

http://www.oulu.fi/~spaceweb/textbook/t154d.html

There is also a longer one 1.3 - 1.4 years...QBO ????

Here is what I am sure of. If you were to actually monitor space weather more closely and you follow what I talk about you will increase your tropical forecasting accuracy in the long haul.


Jim