My perspective on what lies ahead for Nate and Ophelia

[Jim Hughes]

what is a proton level and how does it affect the intensity of weather

Make the connection please. Thanks

Sorry I thought you read my reply back to you at 7:42pm in reference to what a proton event is.

If you go to the Global Forum you will see some of my prior posts over there. I list the URL's for many different reseach papers regarding different space weather influences upon the atmosphere. If you have trouble finding them let me know.

These include things like the solar wind and magnetic field vectors..magnetic field strength .. energetic particle events...and others.

The earth has an electrical environment that basically starts in the ionosphere and space weather effects it. I believe weather/climate is effected to these changes.


Jim

[no advance]

JH I think you got something.

[SouthFloridawx]

Jim any intensification for today?

[Jim Hughes]

These events occurred around 6/21z.....+ 36 hour lag time effect equals 8/04z. So I most likely expected to see an intensification in the 8/3z-9z udates later on this evening and into early tomorrow.

That looks like a specific prediction to me.

Yes it does. Things are getting interesting folks. Proton levels are steadily on the rise tonight.

http://www.sel.noaa.gov/rt_plots/pro_3d.html


Jim

You have hit it on the spot again! Congrats.
Ophelia is intensifying pressure has dropped a good bit since noon today.

Amazing how stuff works. Solar activity influencing cyclonic development.
This theory is highly substantiable yet again tonight.

I think this pat on the back may have been a little premature considering my second post but she did strengthen overnight and into this morning. Nate's a different story....Like I mentioned there almost seems to be a cap on what these storms can reach during these proton events....One other note

So much was going on yesterday that I overlooked Maria being classified a hurricane again after she had previosuly been downgraded to a TS. I believe this went against the NHC forecast but I am not 100% sure. I am sure I will be corrected if I am wrong.


Jim

[SouthFloridawx]

These events occurred around 6/21z.....+ 36 hour lag time effect equals 8/04z. So I most likely expected to see an intensification in the 8/3z-9z udates later on this evening and into early tomorrow.

That looks like a specific prediction to me.

Yes it does. Things are getting interesting folks. Proton levels are steadily on the rise tonight.

http://www.sel.noaa.gov/rt_plots/pro_3d.html


Jim

Jim what is your The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

What kind of intesity changes can we look forward to today.... I am interested to see if your forcast vs. actuals turns out to be.

Jim what is your



You have hit it on the spot again! Congrats.
Ophelia is intensifying pressure has dropped a good bit since noon today.

Amazing how stuff works. Solar activity influencing cyclonic development.
This theory is highly substantiable yet again tonight.

I think this pat on the back may have been a little premature considering my second post but she did strengthen overnight and into this morning. Nate's a different story....Like I mentioned there almost seems to be a cap on what these storms can reach during these proton events....One other note

So much was going on yesterday that I overlooked Maria being classified a hurricane again after she had previosuly been downgraded to a TS. I believe this went against the NHC forecast but I am not 100% sure. I am sure I will be corrected if I am wrong.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I have read Jim's posts and although they may seem "far fetched", especially on this board which is very solidly based on satellite images, radar, recon, models and other "hard verifiable facts" and observations, I have also heard of this science before, not just in papers, but shown on National Geographic and Discovery Science Channel. However, what everyone must realize is that in every discussion about Space Science, they always say that this is a new science, and that the effects are still being analyzed and understood. It is a fact that the sun produces space weather events. The influence on our solar system vary greatly between individual planets. Because of our atmosphere, we are buffered against many of these events, but by the same token, the events do have an effect on our atmosphere. Most of the effects are on the outermost "shell" and are primarily magnetic. As every scientist knows, energy cannot be destroyed nor created, but merely changes form. Magnetic energies are "absorbed" by our atmosphere and must be transformed into another energy form, primarily heat energy, which will affect additional layers of the atmosphere eventually. These sun flares, proton events, or whatever, are therefore going to be an influence on the earth and our weather. The million dollar question is "How much of an influence?"
Still in its infancy, this is what is being hypothesized. You can look at many different bits of data to try and draw correlations. Some seem eerily predictable, though they may be merely a coincidence. At this point in the science, it is mostly conjecture until a solid, long term dataset can be created.
Right now, we are in the observation and initial correlation phase. Maybe 20 years from now, we will be able to predict any direct influence, if any has solidly been established by then, of a sun event to a purely tropical event.
Myself, I would like to think that rather than correlate an exact tropical development event to sun events (i.e. saying a certain storm will behave a certain way), I would like to see the science offer information such as "after a certain sun event, that the direct result would be an increase in upper level atmospheric temperature of .2 degrees C between 5 degrees latitude of 10 degrees N latitude within 36 hours." Such information may be fed into models as another possible dataset to include in their modeling of storm intensity or development potentials.
I personally think that if Jim offerred this sort of correlation for his science, that board members would receive the information much clearer and as more believeable as true science.
This is how "space science" shoudl be presented to teh "laymen" or non-space science pros of the world....which are most of us!

Hopefully this post made sense... in very simple terms to explain the whole space weather / sun influencing our weather argument.

[Jim Hughes]

TreasureIslandFlGal,


What you are talking about would be very hard to do at least from what I could possibly gather up. You also seem to be talking about temperatures. This has been the big mistake of all space weather research in the past. I guess it's built into our minds that the sun makes us hot and cold so we assume it's all about hot and cold....It's more complicated than that. BTW do not think that I am saying that it does not have a role.


Jim

[donsutherland1]

In my view, Jim has offered an interesting hypothesis even if it might appear exotic to some. Its validity will depend on the results of how it holds up. Without this examination over time, I'm simply not in a position to reject the idea that hypothesis lacks merit nor accept such a proposition that it has merit.

The idea that space weather, specifically solar activity, might have some impact is not unique to Jim's thinking. Following Winter 2001-02, Dr. D'Aleo suggested that very high solar activity might have led to an increased tendency for zonal flow and reduced high-latitude blocking.

I believe the optimal approach is to always start from a position of reasonable skepticism--as opposed to outright hostility, as science is supposed to be an open-minded pursuit--until one sees how something performs when subjected to testing e.g., in this case, how the hypothesis holds up to repeated experience with regard to tropical cyclone formation/evolution.

If the hypothesis appears to be holding up, additional lines of examination not to mention statistical analysis would certainly be in order. Moreover, if the results are consistently good and they appear add significant value to forecasting, I'll certainly do what I can to become educated in the methodology.

For now, at least for me, it's premature to reach any hard or certain conclusions in the absence of data and eventual quantification of the outcomes (a next step if things appear sufficiently promising).

[Jim Hughes]

Jim any intensification for today?

I will try and answer questions as frequent as possible but sometimes it is hard to respond quickly....researching....monitoring...taking kids to preschool this morning. 1 1/4 acre of grass to cut also today...

I know this is all complicated so I will try again. My comments in my first post talked about yeterday's big flare. An experienced space weather observer would know that the strength of this flare meant that certain other things most likely accompanied it. ( II/3 & IV/2 Radio Sweeps)

I have said that the approximate lag time for these type of events/eruptions is 36 hours. Now the space weather community is not as fortunate as the metorological community. They have limited satellites for monitoring space weather and one important one is SOHO and it's a mess.

LASCO (SOHO related) images are currently unavailable so it's anybody's guess as to what is coming our way....geomagnetic activity wise...maybe particle wise also...increased solar wind speed ahead ??? ...brought upon by a CME impact or glancing blow.

Yesterday's flare/eruption was probably centered around 17-21z. So if you come foward 36 hours we probaly have another nighttime to early morning strenthening phase between 9/3-12z

Now I have said before that from what I have seen over the years that these tropical systems tend to at least stay at their current level of strength if a forecasted strengthening trend is to occur.

This makes logical sense since it would be somehwat out of character for a system to weaken by some 5-10 mph (or pressure rise) and then turn around and have to gain another 15-20 mph to make up for it's lost strength if you take into consideration that it is supposed to show a strengthening phase pattern from the time of the event 36 hours earlier.

I am sure it probably has gone against the grain sometime but I would tend to think Ophelia will not weaken much today. Although a good amount of dry air is all around her. I think she has held up well considering her conventional meteorological enviroment.

I hope I cleared things up better.


Jim

[Jim Hughes]

In my view, Jim has offered an interesting hypothesis even if it might appear exotic to some. Its validity will depend on the results of how it holds up. Without this examination over time, I'm simply not in a position to reject the idea that hypothesis lacks merit nor accept such a proposition that it has merit.

The idea that space weather, specifically solar activity, might have some impact is not unique to Jim's thinking. Following Winter 2001-02, Dr. D'Aleo suggested that very high solar activity might have led to an increased tendency for zonal flow and reduced high-latitude blocking.

I believe the optimal approach is to always start from a position of reasonable skepticism--as opposed to outright hostility, as science is supposed to be an open-minded pursuit--until one sees how something performs when subjected to testing e.g., in this case, how the hypothesis holds up to repeated experience with regard to tropical cyclone formation/evolution.

If the hypothesis appears to be holding up, additional lines of examination not to mention statistical analysis would certainly be in order. Moreover, if the results are consistently good and they appear add significant value to forecasting, I'll certainly do what I can to become educated in the methodology.

For now, at least for me, it's premature to reach any hard or certain conclusions in the absence of data and eventual quantification of the outcomes (a next step if things appear sufficiently promising).

Very well put DS1 and very fair from my perspective..no pun intended.


Jim

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Jim,
I understand it is very difficult at this point for that correlation to be so easily made, thus all the problems by some in accepting it as anything more than just a wacky theory or hypothesis. Like I said, it is what I would like to see eventually happen once enough data has been collected over many years. Eventually, I belive we will have such an easy "equation" of correlation developed.
Also, regarding your comment about mistaking this for a temperature issue... I know that it is not a direct temperature issue such as a burst of hot air coming at us to heat us up, but more an issue of magnetics/charge. But, it is an issue of magnetics only in its first stage. I tried to convey that the magnetics ultimate transfer to other energies to affect the atmosphere, whether influencing temperatures, humidity levels, charge, etc.
Whether you say it is a proton burst hitting, or that because of that the temperature rises or falls or the air is more likely to flare thunderstorms because of a charging of the atmosphere, is merely which choice of words you want to use. In this forum, being earth-weather based, I would follow up your comment of a "proton burst is coming" with a comment as to what would therefore follow because of it, showing that it truly is all cause and effect. Maybe right now all you can say is that a burst just happened, so expect increased tropical activity in 3 days. -I suppose this is all that can be said at this point.
I think everyone on this board can appreciate the "cause" as existing...its just that the effect needs to be more clearly announced and a dataset built to justify the effects/predications over time.
Unfortunately, the statements that a storm will further develop because of a space weather event seem a bit ludicrous when "common sense" would also dictate the same conclusion, regardless of the space weather hypothesis, based on current weather patterns and climatology. If a developing storm is over very warm water, with no shear in sight and no negative factors to impede its progress, it will strengthen. To say it would strengthen because of a proton burst a few days ago would seem like an irrelevant comment or even far-fetched as any sort of scientific observation given the obvious synoptics.
That is maybe why some have gotten so hostile towards your theory... merely because it seemed you were stating a corellating fact based on space weather alone.
I think the best way for people to eventually accept the space-weather correlation to tropical storms is if weather patterns can be shown worldwide, outside of tropical seasonal patterns, to be affected by space weather and documented over time.
Its an early theory... in time it will be accepted for what influence it has on our weather patterns, and the influence will be reduced to an equation. -just like other influences. But it will take a long time. Heck, we still can't agree on global warming effects or whether they even exist at all due to mankind's influence or just earth cycles.

[Jim Hughes]

Jim,
I understand it is very difficult at this point for that correlation to be so easily made, thus all the problems by some in accepting it as anything more than just a wacky theory or hypothesis. Like I said, it is what I would like to see eventually happen once enough data has been collected over many years. Eventually, I belive we will have such an easy "equation" of correlation developed.
Also, regarding your comment about mistaking this for a temperature issue... I know that it is not a direct temperature issue such as a burst of hot air coming at us to heat us up, but more an issue of magnetics/charge. But, it is an issue of magnetics only in its first stage. I tried to convey that the magnetics ultimate transfer to other energies to affect the atmosphere, whether influencing temperatures, humidity levels, charge, etc.
Whether you say it is a proton burst hitting, or that because of that the temperature rises or falls or the air is more likely to flare thunderstorms because of a charging of the atmosphere, is merely which choice of words you want to use. In this forum, being earth-weather based, I would follow up your comment of a "proton burst is coming" with a comment as to what would therefore follow because of it, showing that it truly is all cause and effect. Maybe right now all you can say is that a burst just happened, so expect increased tropical activity in 3 days. -I suppose this is all that can be said at this point.
I think everyone on this board can appreciate the "cause" as existing...its just that the effect needs to be more clearly announced and a dataset built to justify the effects/predications over time.
Unfortunately, the statements that a storm will further develop because of a space weather event seem a bit ludicrous when "common sense" would also dictate the same conclusion, regardless of the space weather hypothesis, based on current weather patterns and climatology. If a developing storm is over very warm water, with no shear in sight and no negative factors to impede its progress, it will strengthen. To say it would strengthen because of a proton burst a few days ago would seem like an irrelevant comment or even far-fetched as any sort of scientific observation given the obvious synoptics.
That is maybe why some have gotten so hostile towards your theory... merely because it seemed you were stating a corellating fact based on space weather alone.
I think the best way for people to eventually accept the space-weather correlation to tropical storms is if weather patterns can be shown worldwide, outside of tropical seasonal patterns, to be affected by space weather and documented over time.
Its an early theory... in time it will be accepted for what influence it has on our weather patterns, and the influence will be reduced to an equation. -just like other influences. But it will take a long time. Heck, we still can't agree on global warming effects or whether they even exist at all due to mankind's influence or just earth cycles.

I agree with your comments about proper scientific procedure etc ...and some other things but I kindly disagree with part of what you indirectly say.

Example....There seems to be some misperception around here about me only making vague outlooks. This is definitely wrong.

Over the years I have given out many different forecasts both long and short term and they dealt with specific areas... Washington DC on most occasions.... and immediate time frames.

Of course some of my tropical forecasts have been vague development wise because I only give dates but some others have not been . I specifically laid out things duirng previous storm forecasts back in July before coming over to Storm2k after the TWC Tropics Forum shut down.

I also do not say say three days from now etc...I have given shorter time spans even more recently. These were different forecasts based on what I believe to be true. Now I did not start any posts about Katrina because I had just gotten back from vacation late Thursday night before she hit Floorida.

I also did not make any later because I thought that it would disrupt the forum to much. Maybe you have noticed how my posts seem to inflame some people. I thought this was a serious situation so I laid low under the radar.

But I did make my thoughts known and they were RIGHT ON TARGET.

Check out my thoughts pertaining to Katrina here. in DonaldSoutherland1's post. "Katrina Likely to make Gulf Cast Landfall as a Hurricane" in the Tropical Analysis Forum.

Hopefully I got the URL right but the thread is still on the first page. My comments start on page 2.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... c&start=20


I origionally mentioned on Friday afternoon (2:38 pm) that I was concernned from my perspective and I even spoke more openly about it after I was questioned by one of the MOD's. (I also talked more openly in TWC's tropics forum)

On Sunday morning at 10:26 am , after Katrina had already bombed out I spoke about how the increased solar winds might effect her later on in the day and if she exhibited any disorganization I thought that this may be a sign of it's influence....Katrina weakened later that day and she never gained back her maximum strength even though plenty of people were talking about the possibiity of an even stronger hurricane that morning.

I also mentioned about the likelihood of her making more of an eastern track because of some comments that I had read in the Talkin Tropics Forum regarding some TWC/Steve Lyons comments.... Katrina did go east of New Orleans the target center.

Does this or previous correct forecasts mean anything? Not really I guess but I do not look at any models to come up with these forecasts and I would never say that I am well trained within the meteorological field like many others around here. So I would tend to believe that there must be some underlying forecasting methodlogy here somewhere. Either that or I am very lucky individual.

I can disregard the latter half because I have been a gambler for a good deal of my life and IMHO over the years that I am not a very lucky person. At least not that often.


Jim