Invest 95L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cycloneye]

GFDL run about 95L.

But if you remember the 92L syastem this same model had a 920mb strong cane moving thru the Lesser Antilles.Let's see other global models to see if there is a consensus or not.

[krysof]

Where's 95L on the gfdl map?

[Steve H.]

IF that's 95L, then what is the feature east of the Virgin Islands?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Several of the global models develop 95L
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[hicksta]

is that o by NE

[gtalum]

the feature east of the virgin islands IS 95L. The system up by new england is ophelia.

That pic is for 124 hours from now.

[krysof]

I don't think Ophelia will exist in 124 hours.

[Brent]

I don't think Ophelia will exist in 124 hours.

Wellll...... It wasn't supposed to exist now 5 days ago.

[krysof]

she's been a full week now, I will say this now- I HATE YOU OPHELIA, IF YOU EVEN DARE TO EFFECT ME, YOU WILL BE PUNISHED!

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 140229
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
OPHELIA...LOCATED ABOUT 115 MILES EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH
CAROLINA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN



Nothing yet from the TWO product about 95L.

[krysof]

how unusual

[cycloneye]

A view of the area of interest in this color infared pic.Still not a concentrated area of convection as it is scattered.

[southerngale]

sorry didn't know it would be so big

It's ok, but for future reference, click on the Preview button right next to Submit to see what your post will look like before submitting it.
That's how I make sure images, etc. show up correctly before posting them.

[SouthFloridawx]

ah haaa so that's what that button is for... Previewing...... LOL j/k

[SouthFloridawx]

[Anonymous]

[KatDaddy]

AFDs not sure if its Invest 95 or the area of thunderstorms NNE of San Juan associated with a trough lifting out.

AFD Excerpts:

Houston-Galveston AFD

EXTEND-
ED GUIDANCE NOW INDICATING SOME POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT PAT-
TERN OF STRONG UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SRN U.S.. TANTALIZING WHISP-
ERS OF A COLD FRONT FOR NEXT THURS ABOUND...ALONG WITH PERHAPS A LIL
SOMETHING-SOMETHING APPROACHING FROM THE GULF. 41

Key West AFD:

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALL MODELS INCLUDING THE LATEST LONG
RANGE UKMET FORECAST THE EVOLUTION OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS...AND SOME BUT NOT ALL MODELS MOVE IT WESTWARD IN THE
GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE WITH
THE UKMET HAVING IT STILL EAST OF BAHAMAS COME MONDAY...AND THE GFS
MOVING IT OVER THE KEYS DURING MONDAY. THE LATEST EUROPEAN MODEL IS
NOT AVAILABLE BUT THE PRIOR RUN WAS FASTEST WITH ITS PASSAGE OF A
TROUGH OVER THE KEYS DURING SUNDAY. BACK-TRACKING FROM THE VARIOUS
MODELS SOLUTIONS TO THE CURRENT TIME PUTS THAT EVENTUAL TROUGH IN
THE ATLANTIC WHERE NO CURRENT TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED. THE STRONG
WAVE NOW OUT THERE IS CURRENTLY FARTHER EAST. SO WHILE THERE IS SOME
MODEL AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT MAY BE IN STORE
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING, LOCATION, AND WHETHER ITS EVOLUTION WILL STEM
FROM ANY EXISTING TROPICAL WAVES WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC. NO CHANGE
WILL BE MADE AT THIS TIME TO ONGOING FORECASTS...BUT OF COURSE WIND
AND RAIN FORECASTS WILL NEED UPGRADING IF SUCH A TROUGH/WAVE
APPEARS. SORRY.
&&

.MARINE...
A LIGHT WIND PATTERN OUGHT TO STAY WITH US OVER KEYS WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN. WIND DIRECTION MAY TEND
TO BE W TO NW FOR SOME STRETCHES OF TIME...BUT ATLANTIC SIDE WATERS
AND WATERS AROUND THE LOWER KEYS TO DRY TORTUGAS MAY BE QUITE
VARIABLE. STILL...LOOK FOR SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT. A TURN OF WINDS TO NE
TO E BUT STILL 10 KT OR LESS MAY BE IN STORE FRI-SAT AS A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SETS UP A LITTLE TO OUR NORTH. WE NEED TO WATCH
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENTS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS VARIOUS MODELS SHOW A
TROPICAL WAVE OR TROUGH FORMING EAST OF...OR OVER...THE BAHAMAS.
IT'S TOO SOON TO BE SPECIFIC.

Miami AFD:

...AS WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THE GFS AND NOGAPS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID
LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A TROUGH LINE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO ON
FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO DRAG A WEAK OPEN WAVE TROUGH WEST
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS/EASTERN CUBA AND INTO THE STRAITS BY
MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE UKMET RECURVES THIS FEATURE EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS. IN ANY EVENT...THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL RAMP UP DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND AND FAVOR INTERIOR AND WEST FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. IF THE OPEN WAVE TROUGH DOES MIGRATE TO THE SOUTH BY
NEXT MONDAY...EXPECT RAINY PATTERN STARTING THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT EXTENDED PACKAGE SHOWS STANDARD SCATTERED
CONVECTION. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS THE STORY
ON THIS TROUGH EVOLVES.

[Frank2]

Nothing very impressive well east of the islands this morning - it looks more like something you'd see late in the season, with a quasi-stationary area of sheared convection about 750 miles east of the Windward Islands, though a weak circulation is seen in the same area south of 10N.

Click on http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html to view.

Frank

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL952005) ON 20050914 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050914 1200 050915 0000 050915 1200 050916 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.8N 42.7W 10.1N 44.3W 10.0N 46.3W 9.9N 48.5W
BAMM 9.8N 42.7W 10.0N 45.0W 10.1N 47.4W 10.5N 49.5W
A98E 9.8N 42.7W 10.1N 45.5W 10.4N 48.3W 10.8N 51.1W
LBAR 9.8N 42.7W 10.3N 45.0W 10.6N 47.5W 10.9N 50.4W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 30KTS 37KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 30KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050916 1200 050917 1200 050918 1200 050919 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.5N 50.8W 9.6N 55.0W 10.5N 57.7W 11.8N 59.7W
BAMM 10.8N 51.3W 11.8N 53.9W 13.1N 54.8W 15.2N 54.9W
A98E 10.8N 53.6W 11.4N 57.9W 11.7N 61.8W 12.6N 65.0W
LBAR 10.9N 53.5W 11.0N 59.1W 11.4N 62.7W 11.7N 64.3W
SHIP 44KTS 58KTS 71KTS 83KTS
DSHP 44KTS 58KTS 71KTS 83KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.8N LONCUR = 42.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 9.6N LONM12 = 39.9W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 9.4N LONM24 = 37.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


12:00z Model guidance.

[Anonymous]

Nothing very impressive well east of the islands this morning - it looks more like something you'd see late in the season, with a quasi-stationary area of sheared convection about 750 miles east of the Windward Islands, though a weak circulation is seen in the same area south of 10N.

Click on http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html to view.

Frank

Actually, Im quite impressed. the convection is the orange/red that you look for, rather than the yellows that we have seen. Also look...