22,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#41 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 1:27 pm

boca_chris wrote:
what are the chances of this continueing west till florida????shouldn't it have turn north already but it continues west

some of the models take it WNW then back W into FL

Did you ckecked the sticky thread about the models that wxman57 posted?

#42 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 1:31 pm

sponger wrote:I would disagree on Bamm being useless. They do fairly well with shallow systems even out of the deep tropics. Did real well with td 10/ katrina untill it reached hurricane strength.

The real issue is this time of year they don't do well with cold front interactions.

I think you'd better go back and take another look at the BAMs for Katrina:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... tore/2005/

I looked at each run and they were all over the place, from the SW Gulf to moving across Florida then doing a 180 and coming back across Florida before Katrina was a hurricane.

The BAM models simply can't handle a changing environment and shouldn't be used out of the deep tropics.

flhurricaneguy · #43 Postby **flhurricaneguy** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 1:56 pm

i think its time for some new models

#44 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 2:13 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL952005) ON 20051007 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051007 1800 051008 0600 051008 1800 051009 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.1N 57.1W 25.3N 58.6W 26.6N 60.5W 27.5N 63.0W
BAMM 24.1N 57.1W 25.1N 58.9W 26.2N 60.9W 27.1N 63.1W
A98E 24.1N 57.1W 25.1N 58.8W 26.1N 60.1W 27.1N 61.4W
LBAR 24.1N 57.1W 25.3N 58.5W 26.7N 59.7W 28.2N 61.1W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 44KTS 53KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 44KTS 53KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051009 1800 051010 1800 051011 1800 051012 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.0N 65.3W 28.3N 69.1W 28.5N 71.2W 28.0N 69.6W
BAMM 27.8N 65.3W 28.7N 69.6W 28.8N 72.5W 27.6N 73.5W
A98E 28.5N 63.4W 31.2N 69.1W 32.9N 72.1W 31.9N 70.8W
LBAR 29.7N 62.9W 31.9N 66.4W 35.2N 68.3W 37.5N 66.5W
SHIP 60KTS 71KTS 78KTS 79KTS
DSHP 60KTS 71KTS 78KTS 79KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.1N LONCUR = 57.1W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 22.7N LONM12 = 55.4W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 22.7N LONM24 = 53.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

For those who are interested in these models here is the 18:00z run for 95L.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #45 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 2:18 pm

Wow SHIPS is quite aggressive with this system :eek:

DAVE440 · #46 Postby **DAVE440** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 2:19 pm

flhurricaneguy wrote:i think its time for some new models

New spaghetti models eh? Hmmm.....

How bout this one my neice did with my touchpad?

And.....maybe some suggestions for new hurricane names also... Haha :lol:

#47 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 2:47 pm

Unmm that was quick to appear for this system.It says Possible Tropical or Subtropical.

#48 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 2:54 pm

I guess 94L is on standby so we all have to pull for 95L. :team:

#49 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 3:05 pm

A little more of a southerly shift in the BAM set :roll:

The 18Z's:

#50 Postby **fci** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 3:16 pm

quandary wrote:What's the SHIPS seeing that we don't? Usually its at least good for noting that there's going to be shear somewhere, but it just ramps this thing up to a Cat 2 storm. Hybrid storms are pretty good at standing up against strong shear, but they never get up to hurricane strength, much less Cat 2 strength unless they fully transition.

I'm no model expert but SHIPS has consistently taken Invests and ramped them up to 80-something knots in 4-5 days all season long.

#51 Postby **fci** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 3:18 pm

sponger wrote:I would disagree on Bamm being useless. They do fairly well with shallow systems even out of the deep tropics. Did real well with td 10/ katrina untill it reached hurricane strength.

The real issue is this time of year they don't do well with cold front interactions.

Bam's have also consitently forecasted turns to the left towards Florida.
See Franklin, Ophelia etc....

Derek Ortt · #52 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 3:43 pm

SHIPS assumes that we already have a depression, which we clearly do not

#53 Postby **sponger** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 3:46 pm

sponger wrote:
I would disagree on Bamm being useless. They do fairly well with shallow systems even out of the deep tropics. Did real well with td 10/ katrina untill it reached hurricane strength.

The real issue is this time of year they don't do well with cold front interactions.

I think you'd better go back and take another look at the BAMs for Katrina:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... tore/2005/

I looked at each run and they were all over the place, from the SW Gulf to moving across Florida then doing a 180 and coming back across Florida before Katrina was a hurricane.

The BAM models simply can't handle a changing environment and shouldn't be used out of the deep tropics

Definately a mess later no doubt, but I was reffering to the early stages when all models were indicating the weakness to the North would pull td 10 with it. The Bamm seemed to lock on the westerly track when most of the models missed it.

As for Florida hits fci, I agree, it seems to like Florida!

#54 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 7:20 pm

Tracy:

I might not get an opportunity to wish wish you a :bday:

tomorrow so here it is tonight, a few hours early: :bday:

Hope you have a great day.

Lynn

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #55 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 7:50 pm

It looks like it has a surface low with convection forming over it. I'm expecting it to develop into a cyclone.

truballer#1 · #56 Postby **truballer#1** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 7:53 pm

truballer#1 · #57 Postby **truballer#1** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 7:54 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #58 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 7:57 pm

Come on Vince come on!!!!

truballer#1 · #59 Postby **truballer#1** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 7:57 pm

gfs has it a cane but out to sea

#60 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 7:57 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL952005) ON 20051008 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051008 0000 051008 1200 051009 0000 051009 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.8N 57.3W 26.5N 58.8W 28.0N 61.1W 28.8N 63.9W
BAMM 24.8N 57.3W 26.3N 58.7W 27.9N 60.7W 29.2N 62.9W
A98E 24.8N 57.3W 26.1N 58.0W 27.7N 59.6W 28.7N 61.5W
LBAR 24.8N 57.3W 26.4N 58.1W 28.2N 58.8W 29.9N 59.8W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051010 0000 051011 0000 051012 0000 051013 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.9N 66.6W 28.2N 71.2W 27.1N 73.1W 27.3N 70.4W
BAMM 30.1N 65.4W 31.1N 70.7W 30.8N 73.8W 28.8N 73.3W
A98E 29.0N 64.3W 28.8N 70.1W 27.8N 73.7W 26.4N 72.5W
LBAR 31.2N 61.1W 33.3N 63.8W 35.4N 65.3W 36.1N 64.9W
SHIP 50KTS 60KTS 66KTS 68KTS
DSHP 50KTS 60KTS 66KTS 68KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.8N LONCUR = 57.3W DIRCUR = 330DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 23.3N LONM12 = 56.6W DIRM12 = 312DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 22.7N LONM24 = 54.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

00:00z run of the models.

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