AXNT20 KNHC 161757
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 16 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS ALONG
22W/23W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
7N23W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. A FEW CELLS OF MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 32W AND 36W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10-15
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ISOLATED IS
MAINLY NORTH AND BEHIND THE AXIS. THIS WAVE WILL APPROACH THE
LESSER ANTILLES FRI NIGHT...THEN MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SAT.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE AREA NE OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...BUT PART OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO REACH PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE
SATURDAY TROUGH SUNDAY.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 83W/84W
SOUTH OF 20N AND HAS BEEN MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE
LAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED WITH AN INVERTED
V CLOUD PATTERN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A COUPLE OF BANDS OF
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS REACHING THE
CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF NICARAGUA.
THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 8N20W 8N30W 8N37W 10N52W
10N48W 10N53W 10N57W 10N63W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS LIES SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS TO NEAR THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
38W-40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NEAR 28N-97W WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
NE MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF THE GULF.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM WESTERN CUBA TO ALABAMA AND
MISSISSIPPI...COVERING MOST OF THE GULF. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN CLOUDS COVERS THE GULF WATERS
WEST OF 90W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE
CORNER OF THE GULF. MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE
THE W GULF THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN CUBA...
COVERING THE GULF...NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA CUBA AND THE
BAHAMAS. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW IS LOCATED SOUTH OF
THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N WEST OF 70W. MODERATE
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NORTH OF
13N AND WEST OF 70W. AN UPPER TROUGH LIES OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE
ABC ISLANDS...GIVING THE SE CARIBBEAN SWLY WIND FLOW. A WEAK
LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND ITS
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY OVER THAT AREA. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N-22N ALONG
66W. A 1010 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THAT AREA. TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE
SEEN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND IS
DIGGING TO 27N75W. THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A
COLD/STATIONARY FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N68W THEN
CONTINUES MAINLY WEST ALONG 29N77W 31N85W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN SOUTH OF 30N DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEST OF 72W
WHILE AN AREA OF MODERATE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS FROM
27N-31N BETWEEN 65W-72W. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM 27.5N78.5W
TO 24.5N82W CROSSING SOUTH FLORIDA. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED IN
THE VICINITY OF 28N34W. THE CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA N OF
20N BETWEEN 26W-40W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
ATLANTIC WATERS JUST EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 25N20W.
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS MOST OF THE TROPICS. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1031 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 35N40W DOMINATES THE
EAST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO 65W.
$$
GR
I tought someone would post the 2 PM one,but anyway it's here now.
TWD and TWO - Please post the latest here.
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cycloneye
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cycloneye
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643
ABNT20 KNHC 162114
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI JUN 16 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
ABNT20 KNHC 162114
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI JUN 16 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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cycloneye
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AXNT20 KNHC 162356
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUN 16 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN THE RECENT BATCH OVER THE ATLC
AND ANY EFFECTS ARE CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.
HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 36W S
OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ALONG
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 7N. WAVE HAS A CLASSIC V-STRUCTURE ON
SATELLITE. AFRICAN DUST IS SEEN ON LAST LIGHT VIS SATELLITE N
OF THE ITCZ TO 21N BETWEEN THE WAVE AXIS AND ABOUT 50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 32W-37W.
ANOTHER HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W
APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE
NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16.5N-20N BETWEEN
56W-60W. WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR
14N. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE RISE FOR THE WINDWARD AND
ESPECIALLY LEEWARD ISLANDS FOR SAT.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 85W/86W S
OF 20N AND HAS BEEN MOVING W 15-20 KT. SIGNATURE OF THIS WAVE
HAS BEEN DIMINISHING WITH TIME THOUGH IT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.
ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 10N35W 5N40W 6N45W 13N53W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 4.5N W OF 40W AND WITHIN 120
NM OF 4N33W. LARGE AREA OF TSTMS IS MOVING OFF W AFRICA FROM
7N-11N.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THRU DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.. HELPING
TO FIRE TSTMS WITHIN ABOUT 60-90 NM OF THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS
COASTS BETWEEN VERMILLION BAY AND 95W. THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD
COLD FRONT ALSO CAUSED AN EARLIER BLOWUP OF TSTMS OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE W OF TALLAHASSEE BUT HAS SINCE DIMINISHED.
MID/UPPER HIGH IN THE SE GULF NEAR 25N86W IS BASICALLY KEEPING
MOST WATERS RATHER DRY WITH ONLY A FEW TSTMS MOVING OFFSHORE OF
YUCATAN INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD REBUILD
N OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.. BRINGING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE GULF COAST TO SEE AT LEAST SOME DIURNAL
TSTMS.. MOST CONCENTRATED FARTHER N OF THE REGION ALONG THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SE GULF CONTROLS THE W CARIBBEAN WITH
ONLY SOME DIURNAL TSTMS OVER CUBA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. VERY DRY
AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING CLOUDINESS TO A MINIMUM THOUGH THE SW
CARIBBEAN IS ACTIVE TONIGHT IN A REGION OF UPPER DIVERGENCE.
THE E CARIBBEAN HAS AN UPPER TROUGH RANGING FROM THE NE LEEWARD
ISLANDS TO 13N80W BUT DRY AIR IS KEEPING ANY SHOWERS QUITE
SHALLOW-BASED. THIS WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES E TO W THROUGH THE
REGION... REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN BY MID-WEEK. TYPICAL TRADES
COVER MUCH OF THE REGION...QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE REGIME THAT
HELPED SPAWN ALBERTO.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE W ATLC JUST W OF BERMUDA THROUGH
31N70W SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT
IS SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM 31N70W TO 27N74W BUT LACKS SIGNIFICANT
COOL AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TO MAKE IT TOO FAR INTO THE
TROPICS. NARROW RIDGE IS BETWEEN THE W ATLC TROUGH AND A
MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 27N57W.
THIS TROUGH IS ENHANCING SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE
POISED TO ENTER THE CARIBBEAN TOMORROW. FARTHER E... MID/UPPER
LOW IS NEAR 29N33W WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 20N40W JUST
PRODUCING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. THE DEEP TROPICS IS DOMINATED BY
AN UPPER HIGH ALONG 14N/15N W OF 30W TO THE NORTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS WITH UPPER RIDGING DOMINATING THE NE ATLC. RIDGE IS
QUITE FAR TO THE NORTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND RESEMBLES MID
JULY RATHER THAN JUNE. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THE STRONG RIDGING IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE SLOWLY WEAKENED AND REPLACED BY
TROUGHING AS THE POSITIVE MJO AFFECTING THE AREAS HEADS EASTWARD
TOWARD THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE.
$$
BLAKE
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUN 16 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN THE RECENT BATCH OVER THE ATLC
AND ANY EFFECTS ARE CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.
HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 36W S
OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ALONG
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 7N. WAVE HAS A CLASSIC V-STRUCTURE ON
SATELLITE. AFRICAN DUST IS SEEN ON LAST LIGHT VIS SATELLITE N
OF THE ITCZ TO 21N BETWEEN THE WAVE AXIS AND ABOUT 50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 32W-37W.
ANOTHER HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W
APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE
NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16.5N-20N BETWEEN
56W-60W. WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR
14N. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE RISE FOR THE WINDWARD AND
ESPECIALLY LEEWARD ISLANDS FOR SAT.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 85W/86W S
OF 20N AND HAS BEEN MOVING W 15-20 KT. SIGNATURE OF THIS WAVE
HAS BEEN DIMINISHING WITH TIME THOUGH IT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.
ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 10N35W 5N40W 6N45W 13N53W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 4.5N W OF 40W AND WITHIN 120
NM OF 4N33W. LARGE AREA OF TSTMS IS MOVING OFF W AFRICA FROM
7N-11N.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THRU DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.. HELPING
TO FIRE TSTMS WITHIN ABOUT 60-90 NM OF THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS
COASTS BETWEEN VERMILLION BAY AND 95W. THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD
COLD FRONT ALSO CAUSED AN EARLIER BLOWUP OF TSTMS OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE W OF TALLAHASSEE BUT HAS SINCE DIMINISHED.
MID/UPPER HIGH IN THE SE GULF NEAR 25N86W IS BASICALLY KEEPING
MOST WATERS RATHER DRY WITH ONLY A FEW TSTMS MOVING OFFSHORE OF
YUCATAN INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD REBUILD
N OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.. BRINGING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE GULF COAST TO SEE AT LEAST SOME DIURNAL
TSTMS.. MOST CONCENTRATED FARTHER N OF THE REGION ALONG THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SE GULF CONTROLS THE W CARIBBEAN WITH
ONLY SOME DIURNAL TSTMS OVER CUBA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. VERY DRY
AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING CLOUDINESS TO A MINIMUM THOUGH THE SW
CARIBBEAN IS ACTIVE TONIGHT IN A REGION OF UPPER DIVERGENCE.
THE E CARIBBEAN HAS AN UPPER TROUGH RANGING FROM THE NE LEEWARD
ISLANDS TO 13N80W BUT DRY AIR IS KEEPING ANY SHOWERS QUITE
SHALLOW-BASED. THIS WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES E TO W THROUGH THE
REGION... REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN BY MID-WEEK. TYPICAL TRADES
COVER MUCH OF THE REGION...QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE REGIME THAT
HELPED SPAWN ALBERTO.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE W ATLC JUST W OF BERMUDA THROUGH
31N70W SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT
IS SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM 31N70W TO 27N74W BUT LACKS SIGNIFICANT
COOL AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TO MAKE IT TOO FAR INTO THE
TROPICS. NARROW RIDGE IS BETWEEN THE W ATLC TROUGH AND A
MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 27N57W.
THIS TROUGH IS ENHANCING SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE
POISED TO ENTER THE CARIBBEAN TOMORROW. FARTHER E... MID/UPPER
LOW IS NEAR 29N33W WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 20N40W JUST
PRODUCING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. THE DEEP TROPICS IS DOMINATED BY
AN UPPER HIGH ALONG 14N/15N W OF 30W TO THE NORTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS WITH UPPER RIDGING DOMINATING THE NE ATLC. RIDGE IS
QUITE FAR TO THE NORTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND RESEMBLES MID
JULY RATHER THAN JUNE. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THE STRONG RIDGING IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE SLOWLY WEAKENED AND REPLACED BY
TROUGHING AS THE POSITIVE MJO AFFECTING THE AREAS HEADS EASTWARD
TOWARD THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE.
$$
BLAKE
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cycloneye
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boca_chris wrote:wouldn't this be a sticky?
No,because as the discussions and Tropical Weather Outlook's are posted four times everyday the thread will stay anyway at the top of the first page.
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gatorcane
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cycloneye wrote:boca_chris wrote:wouldn't this be a sticky?
No,because as the discussions and Tropical Weather Outlook's are posted four times everyday the thread will stay anyway at the top of the first page.
Yeah I figured that had to be the reason, but several hours after it has been posted it may have fallen far down the page until the next one...
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cycloneye
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 170918
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SAT JUN 17 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING AN AREA
OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT THE WAVE WILL LIKELY INCREASE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BROWN
AXNT20 KNHC 171046
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUN 17 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK
LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE BASED ON A MID LEVEL ROTATION. NO ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 38W-43W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS
WELL-DEFINED N OF 12N AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES. WAVE
IS INTERACTING WITH UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
20N54W-16N60W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W S OF 19N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS
MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THUS DIMINISHING THE WAVE SIGNATURE.
NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 6N23W 5N31W 8N40W 4N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N
OF THE AXIS FROM 17W-20W AND WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM
15W-19W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 250 NM S OF
THE AXIS FROM 18W-38W AND WITHIN 225 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM
30W-37W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
200 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 44W-52W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL US INTO
TEXAS AND THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 91W. REMAINDER OF THE GULF
IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR 23N87W WITH A BROAD
RIDGE COVERING THE GULF AND A SHARP RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W TO OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GULF IS FOR THE MOST PART QUIET THIS
MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 26N E OF 83W
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER HIGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN
NE FLOW W OF 73W AND FORCING THE DIMINISHING SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER S INTO THE CARIBBEAN WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE
FROM HAITI NEAR 18N71W ACROSS JAMAICA ALONG 18N79W TO THE ISLE
OF YOUTH OFF THE CUBAN COAST. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST
OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE COAST OF W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS TO 16N65W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING THAT WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE W ATLC FROM JUST W OF
BERMUDA TO THE US E COAST ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO N OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES. THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
JUST E OF BERMUDA TO 30N67W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES W
TO 28N78W. DESPITE THE INFLUX OF DRY AIR...SCATTERED SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED S OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE COAST OF CUBA
BETWEEN 75W AND THE FLORIDA COAST CONTINUING THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N63W
TO 21N65W DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE TROUGH. NARROW RIDGE AXIS IS BETWEEN THE W ATLC TROUGH
AND A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM
AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N56W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN. FARTHER E...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N33W WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 19N40W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A
1031 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION NEAR 35N39W. THE DEEP TROPICS IS
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG 13N/14N W OF 60W. DIFFLUENCE
ON THE W SIDE OF THIS UPPER RIDGE IS INTERACTING WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES.
$$
WALLACE
ABNT20 KNHC 170918
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SAT JUN 17 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING AN AREA
OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT THE WAVE WILL LIKELY INCREASE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BROWN
AXNT20 KNHC 171046
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUN 17 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK
LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE BASED ON A MID LEVEL ROTATION. NO ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 38W-43W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS
WELL-DEFINED N OF 12N AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES. WAVE
IS INTERACTING WITH UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
20N54W-16N60W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W S OF 19N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS
MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THUS DIMINISHING THE WAVE SIGNATURE.
NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 6N23W 5N31W 8N40W 4N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N
OF THE AXIS FROM 17W-20W AND WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM
15W-19W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 250 NM S OF
THE AXIS FROM 18W-38W AND WITHIN 225 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM
30W-37W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
200 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 44W-52W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL US INTO
TEXAS AND THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 91W. REMAINDER OF THE GULF
IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR 23N87W WITH A BROAD
RIDGE COVERING THE GULF AND A SHARP RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W TO OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GULF IS FOR THE MOST PART QUIET THIS
MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 26N E OF 83W
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER HIGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN
NE FLOW W OF 73W AND FORCING THE DIMINISHING SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER S INTO THE CARIBBEAN WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE
FROM HAITI NEAR 18N71W ACROSS JAMAICA ALONG 18N79W TO THE ISLE
OF YOUTH OFF THE CUBAN COAST. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST
OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE COAST OF W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS TO 16N65W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING THAT WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE W ATLC FROM JUST W OF
BERMUDA TO THE US E COAST ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO N OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES. THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
JUST E OF BERMUDA TO 30N67W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES W
TO 28N78W. DESPITE THE INFLUX OF DRY AIR...SCATTERED SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED S OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE COAST OF CUBA
BETWEEN 75W AND THE FLORIDA COAST CONTINUING THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N63W
TO 21N65W DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE TROUGH. NARROW RIDGE AXIS IS BETWEEN THE W ATLC TROUGH
AND A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM
AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N56W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN. FARTHER E...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N33W WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 19N40W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A
1031 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION NEAR 35N39W. THE DEEP TROPICS IS
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG 13N/14N W OF 60W. DIFFLUENCE
ON THE W SIDE OF THIS UPPER RIDGE IS INTERACTING WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES.
$$
WALLACE
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bvigal
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2276
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- Location: British Virgin Islands
- Contact:
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 170941
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 AM AST SAT JUN 17 2006
.DISCUSSION...EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY... ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE... TO LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WAVE... JUST PAST 60W... HAS BEEN INTERACTING WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE TUTT OVERHEAD THIS MORNING TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE ENERGY WITH THIS WAVE GETTING SPLIT APART AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY... WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. EVEN SO... EXPECT THE OVERALL INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO LEAD TO MUCH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. AFTER THIS TROPICAL WAVE PASSES... EXPECT MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAKER TROPICAL WAVE REACHES THE ISLANDS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS PREVIOUS FORECAST IN TRACK WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE.
FXCA62 TJSJ 170941
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 AM AST SAT JUN 17 2006
.DISCUSSION...EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY... ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE... TO LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WAVE... JUST PAST 60W... HAS BEEN INTERACTING WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE TUTT OVERHEAD THIS MORNING TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE ENERGY WITH THIS WAVE GETTING SPLIT APART AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY... WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. EVEN SO... EXPECT THE OVERALL INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO LEAD TO MUCH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. AFTER THIS TROPICAL WAVE PASSES... EXPECT MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAKER TROPICAL WAVE REACHES THE ISLANDS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS PREVIOUS FORECAST IN TRACK WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146196
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
539
ABNT20 KNHC 171518
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT JUN 17 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. HOWEVER...SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT PRESSURES ARE HIGH IN THE AREA...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADING ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
ABNT20 KNHC 171518
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT JUN 17 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. HOWEVER...SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT PRESSURES ARE HIGH IN THE AREA...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADING ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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bvigal
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2276
- Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 8:49 am
- Location: British Virgin Islands
- Contact:
000
AXNT20 KNHC 171742
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 17 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED ALONG 26W ON THE
06Z SURFACE MAP IS NO LONGER IDENTIFIABLE BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY...LOW LEVEL CLOUD MOTION AND STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS AT LOW LEVELS.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 38W-44W.
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES...MAINLY
GUADALOUPE AND DOMINICA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THE
WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PRODUCING AN AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 15N-21.5N BETWEEN
54W-61W. ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
PRESSURES ARE HIGH IN THE AREA...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AS THE DAY GOES ON BUT
MAINLY OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W S OF 19N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS
MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THUS DIMINISHING THE WAVE SIGNATURE.
NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 5N25W 8N38W 7N43W 5N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S
OF THE AXIS FROM 18W-32W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 20 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 50W-52W AND ALONG THE COASTLINE
OF SURINAME.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL US INTO
TEXAS AND THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 92W. THIS TROUGH IS
ENHANCING THE TSTM ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN TEXAS. REMAINDER OF THE
GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR 24N87W WITH A
BROAD RIDGE COVERING THE GULF...FLORIDA...AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
TSTMS VERY CLOSE TO THE TEXAS COAST...ACROSS THE STRAIT OF
FLORIDA AND WITHIN 20 NM N OF THE LOWER KEYS IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS. SE-S WINDS OF 15-20 KT CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
GULF WHILE E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. MODERATE RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER HIGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO COVERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN CUBA GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN NE FLOW W OF
73W. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE BASIN WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR
SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN AROUND 50 NM OF THE COAST OF PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO
THE E CARIBBEAN TO THE ABC ISLANDS. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
INTERACTING WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO LATE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...INCREASING THE
LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN OVER THAT AREA. MODERATE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OFF THE NW
COAST OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA LATE SUNDAY TROUGH MONDAY.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE W ATLC FROM JUST W OF
BERMUDA TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS. THE ATTENDANT STATIONARY
FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N64W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 29N68W
WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS W TO 27N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS
IS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
ALL THE WAY NE TO 31N61W AND BEYOND. FARTHER E...AN UPPER LOW
IS CENTERED NEAR 30N33W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO
19N40W. A NARROW RIDGE IS BETWEEN THESE UPPER TROUGHS. AT THE
SURFACE...THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF
37N38W DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 60W. THE DEEP TROPICS IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG 13N/14N W OF 60W.
$$
GR
AXNT20 KNHC 171742
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 17 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED ALONG 26W ON THE
06Z SURFACE MAP IS NO LONGER IDENTIFIABLE BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY...LOW LEVEL CLOUD MOTION AND STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS AT LOW LEVELS.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 38W-44W.
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES...MAINLY
GUADALOUPE AND DOMINICA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THE
WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PRODUCING AN AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 15N-21.5N BETWEEN
54W-61W. ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
PRESSURES ARE HIGH IN THE AREA...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AS THE DAY GOES ON BUT
MAINLY OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W S OF 19N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS
MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THUS DIMINISHING THE WAVE SIGNATURE.
NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 5N25W 8N38W 7N43W 5N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S
OF THE AXIS FROM 18W-32W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 20 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 50W-52W AND ALONG THE COASTLINE
OF SURINAME.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL US INTO
TEXAS AND THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 92W. THIS TROUGH IS
ENHANCING THE TSTM ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN TEXAS. REMAINDER OF THE
GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR 24N87W WITH A
BROAD RIDGE COVERING THE GULF...FLORIDA...AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
TSTMS VERY CLOSE TO THE TEXAS COAST...ACROSS THE STRAIT OF
FLORIDA AND WITHIN 20 NM N OF THE LOWER KEYS IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS. SE-S WINDS OF 15-20 KT CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
GULF WHILE E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. MODERATE RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER HIGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO COVERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN CUBA GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN NE FLOW W OF
73W. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE BASIN WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR
SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN AROUND 50 NM OF THE COAST OF PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO
THE E CARIBBEAN TO THE ABC ISLANDS. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
INTERACTING WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO LATE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...INCREASING THE
LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN OVER THAT AREA. MODERATE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OFF THE NW
COAST OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA LATE SUNDAY TROUGH MONDAY.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE W ATLC FROM JUST W OF
BERMUDA TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS. THE ATTENDANT STATIONARY
FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N64W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 29N68W
WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS W TO 27N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS
IS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
ALL THE WAY NE TO 31N61W AND BEYOND. FARTHER E...AN UPPER LOW
IS CENTERED NEAR 30N33W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO
19N40W. A NARROW RIDGE IS BETWEEN THESE UPPER TROUGHS. AT THE
SURFACE...THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF
37N38W DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 60W. THE DEEP TROPICS IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG 13N/14N W OF 60W.
$$
GR
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WindRunner
- Category 5
- Posts: 5806
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
- Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
- Contact:
ABNT20 KNHC 172123
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT JUN 17 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FOR A FEW HUNDRED
MILES. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT THIS
AFTERNOON... AND DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS... SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT JUN 17 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FOR A FEW HUNDRED
MILES. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT THIS
AFTERNOON... AND DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS... SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146196
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
AXNT20 KNHC 172348
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 17 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ADDED ALONG 16W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE
HAS GOOD CONTINUITY ON LONG-TERM SATELLITE LOOPS AND IS WELL
REPRESENTED BY RADIOSONDE DATA AND MODEL FIELDS. MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION SEEN ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 9N. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 7N-11N E OF 21W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 19N MOVING W 20 KT. WAVE HAS A
WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC SIGNATURE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND IS PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN
42W-47W. COMPUTER MODELS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE BEGINNING
TO AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE MON.
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES...MAINLY
GUADALOUPE AND DOMINICA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THE
WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PRODUCING AN AREA OF
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN
54W-60W. MODELS SUGGEST THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO HAS
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FROM THE WAVE THOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN
WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE OPEN OCEAN.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W S OF 19N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS
MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THUS DIMINISHING THE WAVE SIGNATURE.
NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 4N23W 9N40W 6N55W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 26W-31W. A FEW
TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 32W-40W AND W OF 50W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SQUALL LINE IS MOVING THRU LOUISIANA THOUGH IT IS BREAKING UP AS
IT HEADS EASTWARD. DIGGING TROUGH THRU THE GREAT PLAINS IS THE
CULPRIT FOR THE INCREASE IN WEATHER THOUGH IT IS CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL AREAS AND INLAND. MID/UPPER HIGH NEAR 26N89W DOMINATES
THE REST OF THE GULF WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT. RIDGE AXIS
AT THE SURFACE HAS SHIFTED N OF THE AREA WITH LIGHT/MODERATE SLY
WINDS BRINGING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK THROUGH THE AREA. WEAK
TROUGH E OF FLORIDA SHOULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN S FLORIDA
OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH A FAIR CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE SEABREEZES AROUND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SUN.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
RIDGING FROM THE GULF COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH JUST A FEW
DIURNAL TSTMS OVER CUBA. OTHERWISE MID/UPPER SUBSIDENCE OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA W OF 70W IS KEEPING CONDITIONS
RELATIVELY DRY. UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD FROM YESTERDAY
AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ROM NEAR PUERTO RICO TO THE NW PORTION OF
COLOMBIA. THIS TROUGH IS ENHANCED TSTMS OVER NORTHERN S AMERICA
AND ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS RATHER
LIMITED OVER THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS.
TOMORROW SHOULD DRY OUT A LITTLE IN THE E CARIBBEAN WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE ON MON AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES. THE
GFS SUGGESTS TSTMS WILL INCREASE TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W NEAR AND S OF NICARAGUA ON MON.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BASICALLY THE ATLANTIC HAS A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN
OF FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE. WESTERNMOST TROUGH IS JUST W OF
BERMUDA SOUTHWARD THRU THE SE BAHAMAS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS N OF
25N BETWEEN 59W-65W. HIGH CLOUDS FORM A SHIELD OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-60W MOVING
NORTHWARD AROUND A HIGH NEAR 18N49W RIDGING UP BEYOND 31N50W.
DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND TROUGHING TO THE W IS
LEADING TO ACTIVE CONVECTION NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. FARTHER
E... MID/UPPER LOW IS NEAR 30N34W TROUGHING S TO 20N36W WITH A
FEW TSTMS ENHANCED WITHIN 90 NM OF 24N30W. OTHERWISE RIDGING IS
FAR TO THE N CENTERED NEAR 22N20W WITH MOSTLY ELY WINDS ALOFT
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING
TO THE RECENT ACTIVE CONDITIONS IN THE ATLC ITCZ AND THE RATHER
HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVES OF THE PAST WEEK. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS
BUILT UP N OF THE AREA BRINGING NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE TRADES IN
THE TROPICAL ATLC.
$$
BLAKE
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 17 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ADDED ALONG 16W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE
HAS GOOD CONTINUITY ON LONG-TERM SATELLITE LOOPS AND IS WELL
REPRESENTED BY RADIOSONDE DATA AND MODEL FIELDS. MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION SEEN ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 9N. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 7N-11N E OF 21W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 19N MOVING W 20 KT. WAVE HAS A
WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC SIGNATURE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND IS PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN
42W-47W. COMPUTER MODELS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE BEGINNING
TO AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE MON.
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES...MAINLY
GUADALOUPE AND DOMINICA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THE
WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PRODUCING AN AREA OF
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN
54W-60W. MODELS SUGGEST THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO HAS
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FROM THE WAVE THOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN
WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE OPEN OCEAN.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W S OF 19N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS
MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THUS DIMINISHING THE WAVE SIGNATURE.
NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 4N23W 9N40W 6N55W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 26W-31W. A FEW
TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 32W-40W AND W OF 50W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SQUALL LINE IS MOVING THRU LOUISIANA THOUGH IT IS BREAKING UP AS
IT HEADS EASTWARD. DIGGING TROUGH THRU THE GREAT PLAINS IS THE
CULPRIT FOR THE INCREASE IN WEATHER THOUGH IT IS CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL AREAS AND INLAND. MID/UPPER HIGH NEAR 26N89W DOMINATES
THE REST OF THE GULF WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT. RIDGE AXIS
AT THE SURFACE HAS SHIFTED N OF THE AREA WITH LIGHT/MODERATE SLY
WINDS BRINGING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK THROUGH THE AREA. WEAK
TROUGH E OF FLORIDA SHOULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN S FLORIDA
OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH A FAIR CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE SEABREEZES AROUND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SUN.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
RIDGING FROM THE GULF COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH JUST A FEW
DIURNAL TSTMS OVER CUBA. OTHERWISE MID/UPPER SUBSIDENCE OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA W OF 70W IS KEEPING CONDITIONS
RELATIVELY DRY. UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD FROM YESTERDAY
AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ROM NEAR PUERTO RICO TO THE NW PORTION OF
COLOMBIA. THIS TROUGH IS ENHANCED TSTMS OVER NORTHERN S AMERICA
AND ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS RATHER
LIMITED OVER THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS.
TOMORROW SHOULD DRY OUT A LITTLE IN THE E CARIBBEAN WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE ON MON AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES. THE
GFS SUGGESTS TSTMS WILL INCREASE TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W NEAR AND S OF NICARAGUA ON MON.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BASICALLY THE ATLANTIC HAS A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN
OF FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE. WESTERNMOST TROUGH IS JUST W OF
BERMUDA SOUTHWARD THRU THE SE BAHAMAS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS N OF
25N BETWEEN 59W-65W. HIGH CLOUDS FORM A SHIELD OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-60W MOVING
NORTHWARD AROUND A HIGH NEAR 18N49W RIDGING UP BEYOND 31N50W.
DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND TROUGHING TO THE W IS
LEADING TO ACTIVE CONVECTION NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. FARTHER
E... MID/UPPER LOW IS NEAR 30N34W TROUGHING S TO 20N36W WITH A
FEW TSTMS ENHANCED WITHIN 90 NM OF 24N30W. OTHERWISE RIDGING IS
FAR TO THE N CENTERED NEAR 22N20W WITH MOSTLY ELY WINDS ALOFT
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING
TO THE RECENT ACTIVE CONDITIONS IN THE ATLC ITCZ AND THE RATHER
HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVES OF THE PAST WEEK. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS
BUILT UP N OF THE AREA BRINGING NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE TRADES IN
THE TROPICAL ATLC.
$$
BLAKE
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
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AXNT20 KNHC 180438
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 18 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF
LINE 8N16W-4N21W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 43W-49W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 23N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE
SIGNATURE CURVATURE HAS DIMINISHED AS IT CROSSED INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN. WAVE IS BENEATH THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE
BUT IS ONLY PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA S OF 18N
FROM 68W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 5N25W 6N37W 10N45W 6N50W
5N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 2N
TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA FROM 6W-10W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 20W-40W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS
FROM 47W-57W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL US INTO TEXAS
AND THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 91W. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT
WAS IN THE W ATLC HAS RETROGRADED TO INCLUDE THE E GULF TONIGHT
N OF 22N E OF 85W. THIS LEAVES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER
AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR 23N90W WITH A SHARP RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING N OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GULF IS FOR THE
MOST PART QUIET TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DIMINISHING
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF S
OF 26N E OF 83W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY TWO UPPER HIGHS...THE ONE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SECOND OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC. BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DIPS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N
OF 15N FROM 65W-85W. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE AT
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN N
OF 18N FROM PUERTO RICO THROUGH CUBA. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND THE SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG S ACROSS THE W ATLC
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM W OF
60W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N63W SW TO
27N69W. DESPITE THE INFLUX OF DRY AIR...CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH S OF 25N FROM
60W-83W. NARROW RIDGE AXIS IS BETWEEN THE W ATLC TROUGH AND A
BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N35W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING S TO 20N35W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH
WELL N OF THE REGION. THE DEEP TROPICS IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER
HIGH OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 15N49W AND A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDING
OFF THE AFRICAN COAST ALONG 15N/16N E OF 30W. DIFFLUENCE ON THE
W SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS GENERATING AN
AREA OF OVERCAST CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-28N BETWEEN 50W-60W.
$$
WALLACE
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 18 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF
LINE 8N16W-4N21W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 43W-49W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 23N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE
SIGNATURE CURVATURE HAS DIMINISHED AS IT CROSSED INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN. WAVE IS BENEATH THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE
BUT IS ONLY PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA S OF 18N
FROM 68W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 5N25W 6N37W 10N45W 6N50W
5N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 2N
TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA FROM 6W-10W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 20W-40W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS
FROM 47W-57W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL US INTO TEXAS
AND THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 91W. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT
WAS IN THE W ATLC HAS RETROGRADED TO INCLUDE THE E GULF TONIGHT
N OF 22N E OF 85W. THIS LEAVES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER
AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR 23N90W WITH A SHARP RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING N OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GULF IS FOR THE
MOST PART QUIET TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DIMINISHING
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF S
OF 26N E OF 83W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY TWO UPPER HIGHS...THE ONE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SECOND OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC. BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DIPS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N
OF 15N FROM 65W-85W. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE AT
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN N
OF 18N FROM PUERTO RICO THROUGH CUBA. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND THE SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG S ACROSS THE W ATLC
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM W OF
60W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N63W SW TO
27N69W. DESPITE THE INFLUX OF DRY AIR...CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH S OF 25N FROM
60W-83W. NARROW RIDGE AXIS IS BETWEEN THE W ATLC TROUGH AND A
BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N35W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING S TO 20N35W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH
WELL N OF THE REGION. THE DEEP TROPICS IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER
HIGH OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 15N49W AND A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDING
OFF THE AFRICAN COAST ALONG 15N/16N E OF 30W. DIFFLUENCE ON THE
W SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS GENERATING AN
AREA OF OVERCAST CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-28N BETWEEN 50W-60W.
$$
WALLACE
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146196
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
ABNT20 KNHC 180903
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SUN JUN 18 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
AXNT20 KNHC 181046
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 18 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
11N-14N BETWEEN 47W-52W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
SIGNATURE CURVATURE REMAINS WEAK AS IT CROSSES THE E CARIBBEAN.
WAVE IS BENEATH THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR CONVECTION.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 3N30W 12N47W 6N50W
7N60W.CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 2N TO THE COAST OF SW AFRICA E OF 13W ACROSS THE PRIME
MERIDIAN AND WITHIN 200 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 20W-47W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
47W-57W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL US INTO TEXAS
AND THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 92W. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT
IS IN THE W ATLC INCLUDES THE E GULF N OF 22N E OF 86W. THIS
LEAVES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED
NEAR 22N91W WITH A SHARP RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GULF REMAINS QUIET THIS MORNING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 85W
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY TWO UPPER HIGHS...THE ONE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SECOND OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC. BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DIPS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N
OF 16N FROM 70W-83W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE AT THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 18N FROM
HISPANIOLA THROUGH CUBA. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF
THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90
NM ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 12N W OF 80W.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG S ACROSS THE W ATLC
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM W OF
60W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N63W SW TO
26N71W. DESPITE THE INFLUX OF DRY AIR...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AT
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH S OF 28N FROM 63W-83W INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. NARROW RIDGE AXIS IS BETWEEN
THE W ATLC TROUGH AND A BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N35W
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 21N35W. AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION. THE DEEP
TROPICS IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 15N48W AND A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST
ALONG 16N/17N E OF 30W. DIFFLUENCE ON THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER
HIGH IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS GENERATING AN AREA OF OVERCAST
CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
18N-28N BETWEEN 54W-60W. IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER THIN LAYER OF
AFRICAN DUST IS MOVING ACROSS THE E ATLC S OF 20N E OF 40W THUS
LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
21W.
$$
WALLACE
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SUN JUN 18 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
AXNT20 KNHC 181046
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 18 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
11N-14N BETWEEN 47W-52W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
SIGNATURE CURVATURE REMAINS WEAK AS IT CROSSES THE E CARIBBEAN.
WAVE IS BENEATH THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR CONVECTION.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 3N30W 12N47W 6N50W
7N60W.CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 2N TO THE COAST OF SW AFRICA E OF 13W ACROSS THE PRIME
MERIDIAN AND WITHIN 200 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 20W-47W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
47W-57W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL US INTO TEXAS
AND THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 92W. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT
IS IN THE W ATLC INCLUDES THE E GULF N OF 22N E OF 86W. THIS
LEAVES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED
NEAR 22N91W WITH A SHARP RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GULF REMAINS QUIET THIS MORNING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 85W
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY TWO UPPER HIGHS...THE ONE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SECOND OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC. BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DIPS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N
OF 16N FROM 70W-83W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE AT THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 18N FROM
HISPANIOLA THROUGH CUBA. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF
THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90
NM ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 12N W OF 80W.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG S ACROSS THE W ATLC
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM W OF
60W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N63W SW TO
26N71W. DESPITE THE INFLUX OF DRY AIR...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AT
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH S OF 28N FROM 63W-83W INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. NARROW RIDGE AXIS IS BETWEEN
THE W ATLC TROUGH AND A BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N35W
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 21N35W. AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION. THE DEEP
TROPICS IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 15N48W AND A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST
ALONG 16N/17N E OF 30W. DIFFLUENCE ON THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER
HIGH IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS GENERATING AN AREA OF OVERCAST
CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
18N-28N BETWEEN 54W-60W. IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER THIN LAYER OF
AFRICAN DUST IS MOVING ACROSS THE E ATLC S OF 20N E OF 40W THUS
LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
21W.
$$
WALLACE
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-
WindRunner
- Category 5
- Posts: 5806
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
- Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
- Contact:
000
AXNT20 KNHC 181746
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ AXIS.
A GOOD LOOKING TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W S OF 16N MOVING W
15-20 KT. BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. GRIDDED QUIKSCAT DATA HAS SHOWN THAT
THE WAVE IS VERY WELL DEFINED IN THE WIND FIELD. A CLUSTER OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N
BETWEEN 47W-52W. COMPUTER MODELS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE
AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE MONDAY AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO ON TUESDAY. ACCORDING TO THE 18/1500 UTC CIMSS
SAHARAN AIR LAYER A HUGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS BEHIND THIS
WAVE.
TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED ALONG 66W/67W ON THE
06Z SURFACE MAP WAS RELOCATED ALONG 65W/66W BASED ON THE SAN
JUAN 12Z SOUNDING AND LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS
WAVE IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE
CURVATURE REMAINS WEAK AS IT CROSSES THE E CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IS ENHANCING THE SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY OVER THE VIRGIN INLAND AND PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE
SAN JUAN METRO AREA.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 4N30W 7N40W 7N50W 7N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100-120
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 24W-32W AND S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
32W-37W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND WITHIN 100 NM SOUTH OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 40W-46W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE WEST OF 50W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL US INTO TEXAS
AND THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF. THIS LEAVES THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF UNDER A MID/UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR 26N90W WITH A SHARP
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE OVER SE U.S.. DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. A SQUALL LINE IS MOVING THROUGH
LOUISIANA AND THE TEXAS COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. AT
THE SURFACE...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF. SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT
BLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WHILE E-SE WINDS DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE RIDGE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MON.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY TWO UPPER HIGHS...THE ONE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SECOND OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC. BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DIPS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N
OF 16N FROM 70W-80W. SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH ARE
FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN JAMAICA AND EASTERN
CUBA RELATED TO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. DRY AIR ALOFT
DOMINATES THE BASIN WEST OF 70W AND S OF 15N. MODERATE TRADE
WINDS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT OFF THE NW COAST OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA TONIGHT
TROUGH MONDAY.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE ATLANTIC HAS A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN. BROAD DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG S ACROSS THE W ATLC INTO THE N
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM W OF 60W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS ALONG 31N64W 29N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN AROUND
5O NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A RIDGE IS BETWEEN THE W ATLC
TROUGH AND A BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N35W WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 20N35W. THE DEEP TROPICS IS DOMINATED BY
AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 16N48W AND A SECOND
RIDGE EXTENDING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
DIFFLUENCE ON THE E SIDE OF THE W ATLC TROUGH IS GENERATING AN
AREA OF OVERCAST CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-27N BETWEEN 55W-60W. AS IS TYPICAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH WITH A 1036 MB
CENTER IN THE VICINITY OF 41N41W EXTENDS OVER MOST OF THE ATLC
OCEAN...WITH A RIDGE COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SE
PORTION OF THE U.S.. A SECONDARY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OF 1026 MB
IS NEAR 35N-68W.
$$
GR
AXNT20 KNHC 181746
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ AXIS.
A GOOD LOOKING TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W S OF 16N MOVING W
15-20 KT. BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. GRIDDED QUIKSCAT DATA HAS SHOWN THAT
THE WAVE IS VERY WELL DEFINED IN THE WIND FIELD. A CLUSTER OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N
BETWEEN 47W-52W. COMPUTER MODELS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE
AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE MONDAY AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO ON TUESDAY. ACCORDING TO THE 18/1500 UTC CIMSS
SAHARAN AIR LAYER A HUGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS BEHIND THIS
WAVE.
TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED ALONG 66W/67W ON THE
06Z SURFACE MAP WAS RELOCATED ALONG 65W/66W BASED ON THE SAN
JUAN 12Z SOUNDING AND LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS
WAVE IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE
CURVATURE REMAINS WEAK AS IT CROSSES THE E CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IS ENHANCING THE SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY OVER THE VIRGIN INLAND AND PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE
SAN JUAN METRO AREA.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 4N30W 7N40W 7N50W 7N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100-120
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 24W-32W AND S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
32W-37W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND WITHIN 100 NM SOUTH OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 40W-46W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE WEST OF 50W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL US INTO TEXAS
AND THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF. THIS LEAVES THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF UNDER A MID/UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR 26N90W WITH A SHARP
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE OVER SE U.S.. DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. A SQUALL LINE IS MOVING THROUGH
LOUISIANA AND THE TEXAS COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. AT
THE SURFACE...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF. SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT
BLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WHILE E-SE WINDS DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE RIDGE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MON.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY TWO UPPER HIGHS...THE ONE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SECOND OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC. BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DIPS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N
OF 16N FROM 70W-80W. SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH ARE
FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN JAMAICA AND EASTERN
CUBA RELATED TO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. DRY AIR ALOFT
DOMINATES THE BASIN WEST OF 70W AND S OF 15N. MODERATE TRADE
WINDS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT OFF THE NW COAST OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA TONIGHT
TROUGH MONDAY.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE ATLANTIC HAS A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN. BROAD DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG S ACROSS THE W ATLC INTO THE N
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM W OF 60W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS ALONG 31N64W 29N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN AROUND
5O NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A RIDGE IS BETWEEN THE W ATLC
TROUGH AND A BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N35W WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 20N35W. THE DEEP TROPICS IS DOMINATED BY
AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 16N48W AND A SECOND
RIDGE EXTENDING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
DIFFLUENCE ON THE E SIDE OF THE W ATLC TROUGH IS GENERATING AN
AREA OF OVERCAST CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-27N BETWEEN 55W-60W. AS IS TYPICAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH WITH A 1036 MB
CENTER IN THE VICINITY OF 41N41W EXTENDS OVER MOST OF THE ATLC
OCEAN...WITH A RIDGE COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SE
PORTION OF THE U.S.. A SECONDARY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OF 1026 MB
IS NEAR 35N-68W.
$$
GR
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-
CHRISTY
-
Matt-hurricanewatcher
-
CHRISTY
-
wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 23021
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
CHRISTY wrote:000
ABNT20 KNHC 182103
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
I've always wondered what good it does for the general public to only go out 24-36 hours in their discussion for potential development. I'd like to see them discuss development potential over the next 7-10 days. That would be an interesting read.
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