Hurricane Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread #1

[TampaFl]

Wow... look at these maximum potentials!!

http://wxmaps.org/pix/atlpot.png

Yes Jevo I saw that to. Look at the area off the West Coast of FL marked in black. I belive, correct me if I am wrong, this would support a cat 4 - 5 hurricane. Lets hope that does not pan out. Thanks for posting.


Robert

[storms in NC]

I just woke up this morning and am in awe. Not only might I actually feel some impact from this but its a hurricane! I did not expect this at all.

I just woke up and looked. What happen? so this might go up the east coast? NOWAY. I have read for about 2hours to a hold on this thing

[bvigal]

Why does this thread say "hurricane", when advisory does not?
Why was this started as "Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread 1" when the previous thread isn't full and locked, with no reference to them, even after a promet, TheEuropean, asked you to please include them? And why starting over with #1?

[HURAKAN]

Well, I'm not shocked with Ernesto being a hurricane at this time, but I have to say I'm impressed. I wasn't expecting at the beginning Ernesto to be a factor in my weather conditions but it seems Ernestico wants to get closer to South Florida than before expected.

[SouthFloridawx]

Why does this thread say "hurricane", when advisory does not?
Why was this started as "Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread 1" when the previous thread isn't full and locked, with no reference to them, even after a promet, TheEuropean, asked you to please include them? And why starting over with #1?

000
WTNT65 KNHC 270951
TCUAT5
HURRICANE ERNESTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
504 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM
ERNESTO HAS NOW REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH...

RECENT DROPSONDE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS IN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH. THIS
MAKES ERNESTO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Scorpion]

Emmet Brown, the mountains of Cuba are much lower than Haiti's. In addition, it is highly unlikely Ernesto will go over eastern Cuba, where the mountains are.

[Jevo]

Unless I am interpretting the recon data wrong, they just sent a vortex message with 995 mb pressure, which is up several mb... the rapid intensification seems to have taken a break.

Looking at IR and WV, looks like this one is getting really close to Haiti. This is going to be a confusing day all around. I think this could still clip Haiti.

Also, i dont think the center is done organizing. It could still jump around some until the shear abates completely and the core of the storm establishes itself a little better.

That being said, it is probably better to focus on the near term a little more instead of the models. I think there is a good chance that Ernesto will spend a good amount of time over land, and makes the future very uncertain. I live in FL, and i am hoping that the storm never really gels for the time being.

It must have been a very difficult forecast for the NHC... and looks to continue that way. I am surprised they changed the path as much as they did without model consistency from run to run.

The mountains of Haiti and W Cuba are tall... they will rip Ernesto a new one if he runs into them.

That was from the NW Quad... doing a SW-NE pass now

[Starburst]

Is it just me or does Ernesto look strange this morning. He has 2 convective balls that seem somewhat attached to each other and on satellite it almost looks like the front ball is counter clockwise as normal the the back convective ball almost looks to be starting a clockwise rotation? I think Ernesto has doubled himself overnight into 2 Ernesto's kind of.

[tropicsgal05]

What time will the new model runs be out?

[Normandy]

^ No Ernesto has one center and its a really really well established one.

[wxwonder12]

Is it possible that these models could shift any further E and Ernesto could track straight up the state of Florida??

[HURAKAN]

Outside from being now a hurricane, the main difference between yesterday and today, is that the shear doesn't seem to be affecting the storm as much as it was yesterday, and this image is showing that. Look at that beautiful outflow in the western side.

[HURAKAN]

Is it possible that these models could shift any further E and Ernesto could track straight up the state of Florida??

Possible, yes. I hope it doesn't happen, of course.

[johngaltfla]

Again this storms teach and humble us all...that no matter what no one really has a grasp of mother nature....We get blasted for giving our opinions and now this storm has really changed cause..FOR NOW that is

That's an understatement. That track is earily similar to Charley and me and about 5 million other folks just woke up and yelled

HOLY CRAP

this morning. Well, time to dust off the evac plans......

[bvigal]

Thanks SouthFloridawx! That bulletin should be in the first post of this thread - or actually on page 24 of the other thread, which isn't full yet! I know, there's not a mod around to lock the other, but Jevo you need to go back and EDIT your first post in this thread to include the bulletin, and the links to the other 12 threads.

Here's what people are reading, so there will be confusion until you remove the confusion:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 11...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006
...
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006
...
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
0900 UTC SUN AUG 27 2006

[Emmett_Brown]

Emmet Brown, the mountains of Cuba are much lower than Haiti's. In addition, it is highly unlikely Ernesto will go over eastern Cuba, where the mountains are.

Hi Scorpion,

I just looks to me judging from the loops that Ernesto as a chance as landfalling in E Cuba... where the mountains are. i just dont see the storm making much westard progress recently. Then again, this is how Dennis was, and he avoided eastern Cuba.

[tailgater]

Emmet Brown, the mountains of Cuba are much lower than Haiti's. In addition, it is highly unlikely Ernesto will go over eastern Cuba, where the mountains are.

Why is it highly unlikely.

[Scorpion]

Emmet Brown, the mountains of Cuba are much lower than Haiti's. In addition, it is highly unlikely Ernesto will go over eastern Cuba, where the mountains are.

Why is it highly unlikely.

Hurricane tend to move around mountainous areas. Take Ivan and Dennis for example. In addition, it is expected to curve back towards the WNW.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Yes. I mentioned yesterday that perhaps the models were picking up on something that the pros could not "see." That turns out to be "center reformation" in response to shear at low levels. Also yesterday, we were taking about "undercut shear." It is truly amazing how each storm is so different and unique.

This is not an official forecast for anyone silly enough to believe so . . .

Ernesto will still feel the effects of the shear and continue to move north of guidance. I think the storm will run the course between Haiti and Cuba to enter the Florida straits by tomorrow. Other wise, good bye Ernesto running into Cuba. I give a 50/50 chance on which side of Florida it make land fall. Every indication is that the storm will continue to strengthen.

Now you all play nice between Texans and Floridians.

[BensonTCwatcher]

According to the VDM's over the last few hours it's moving NW now. This would track over Eastern tip of Cuba. The longer it stays NW the more likely this becomes, and less likely to see a jog back WNW.