TC Bondo (DISSIPATING)

[MiamiensisWx]

Personally, going by satellite estimates and closer observation of the structure of the TC and the eyewall per most recent imagery and passes, I'd say Bondo is probably the Saffir-Simpson equivalent (per one-minute sustained windspeeds) of an upper-end Category Four (130KT to 135KT) and is likely getting rather close to a Category Five. The structure, which may hint at some surface data close to the eyewall (although actual surface data is scarce), as well as the outflow synoptics may support that compromise estimate. The core is fairly well-defined, too.

As the mid-level anticyclone remains rather robust over Bondo, pending an ERC I would say that Bondo may likely have it's best shot at Category Five (Saffir-Simpson Scale-equivalent) status over the next 36 to 48 hours roughly.

[P.K.]

2030GMT estimates: SAB 6.5, AFWA 6.5, JTWC 7.0

[HurricaneBill]

I wouldn't want to be on the Agalega Islands right now, although they're on the weaker side, right?

[Calasanjy]

It looks like it will skirt the tip of Madagascar. However, eventually, it will have to recurve. This is kinda reminding me of Cyclone Kamisy from 1984.

Yeah, it's heading in the same general track as Kamisy at the moment, with possible landfall on the tip of Madagascar and possibly a secondary along the northwest coastline, except it is already much stronger. If I recall correctly, Kamisy was 100 knots at its peak but Bondo is already a borderline Cat. 4/5. This could present a nightmare scenario of a Kamisy-like path but a Gafilo/Geralda-like intensity.

Ironically, I saw a satellite pass of Bondo that reminded me of one of Kamisy. Here they are for comparison:

Kamisy 1983/1984



Bondo 2006/2007



Apologies for the size of the Kamisy image; I couldn't get ImageShack to enlarge it.

On another note, does anyone know how the rapid intensification phase for Bondo compares to the likes of Typhoon Forrest and Hurricane Wilma?[

[Ptarmigan]

That was some extreme intensification there. Last I checked it was at tropical storm strength now it's on the verge of a category 5 cyclone. I don't think it's quite there yet but it's close. I agree with the estimation of 130 knots or strong category 4. I viewed the 24 loop and that inner core organized extremely quickly and a medium sized eye that looked fairly beautiful popped out. The loop shows that the eye has since shrunk in size near a pin-hole.

Link: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... va05S.html

Looks rather small for a hurricane.

[wxmann_91]

clipped

Where did you get the image of Kamisy, Calasanjy?

I don't think this could compare with the other two storms; it went from strong TS to Cat 4 in 24 hr vs. to Cat 5.

Can you also present the track of Geralda and Kamisy? Thanks.

Looks rather small for a hurricane.

They don't call them hurricanes in the S. Hemisphere, nevertheless, size doesn't matter in TC's.

[Ptarmigan]

They don't call them hurricanes in the S. Hemisphere, nevertheless, size doesn't matter in TC's.

Technically a hurricane is a tropical cyclone. Yes, I know size does not matter.

[P.K.]

On another note, does anyone know how the rapid intensification phase for Bondo compares to the likes of Typhoon Forrest and Hurricane Wilma?[

ITC Bondo:

17/12/2006 12:00 65.35 10.42 2.0 Perturbation tropicale 1002 25 kt, 46 km/h 35 kt, 65 km/h
17/12/2006 18:00 64.86 10.65
18/12/2006 00:00 64.42 10.73 2.0 Perturbation tropicale 1003 25 kt, 46 km/h 35 kt, 65 km/h
18/12/2006 06:00 63.79 10.78 2.0 Perturbation tropicale 1000 25 kt, 46 km/h 35 kt, 65 km/h
18/12/2006 12:00 63.10 10.80 2.0 Perturbation tropicale 1000 25 kt, 46 km/h 35 kt, 65 km/h
18/12/2006 18:00 61.60 11.00 2.5 DEPRESSION tropicale 998 30 kt, 55 km/h 42 kt, 78 km/h
19/12/2006 00:00 60.50 11.00 3.0 TEMPETE tropicale moderée 992 40 kt, 74 km/h 56 kt, 104 km/h
19/12/2006 06:00 59.50 10.50 4.0 Forte TEMPETE tropicale 976 60 kt, 111 km/h 84 kt, 156 km/h
19/12/2006 12:00 58.50 10.70 5.0 CYCLONE tropical 950 85 kt, 157 km/h 119 kt, 221 km/h
19/12/2006 18:00 105kts, 925hPa

TY Forest:

66666 8310 48 8310 1 6 FORREST 19921021
83091900 002 2 70 1510 1006 000
83091906 002 2 78 1495 1004 000
83091912 002 2 85 1480 1004 000
83091918 002 2 93 1466 1004 000
83092000 002 2 100 1455 1002 000
83092006 002 2 105 1446 1000 000
83092012 002 3 110 1437 998 035 00000 0000 90075 0075
83092018 002 3 115 1428 996 035 00000 0000 90075 0075
83092100 002 4 121 1419 994 055 90030 0030 90150 0150
83092106 002 4 127 1409 990 060 90050 0050 90200 0200
83092112 002 4 136 1399 985 060 90050 0050 90200 0200
83092118 002 5 144 1389 980 065 90050 0050 90250 0250
83092200 002 5 151 1379 975 065 90050 0050 90250 0250
83092206 002 5 162 1370 950 075 90075 0075 20275 0200
83092212 002 5 172 1360 925 100 90100 0100 10300 0200
83092218 002 5 180 1347 890 110 90125 0125 10300 0200
83092300 002 5 186 1335 885 110 90125 0125 10300 0200
83092306 002 5 190 1327 885 110 90125 0125 90300 0300
83092312 002 5 195 1319 900 110 90125 0125 90300 0300
83092318 002 5 201 1310 900 110 90125 0125 90300 0300
83092400 002 5 208 1303 910 110 90125 0125 90300 0300
83092406 002 5 216 1295 915 110 90125 0125 90300 0300
83092412 002 5 224 1286 920 100 90125 0125 70400 0300
83092418 002 5 230 1280 920 100 90125 0125 70400 0300
83092500 002 5 237 1274 920 100 90125 0125 30400 0300
83092506 002 5 244 1268 920 100 90125 0125 20400 0300
83092512 002 5 251 1264 920 110 90125 0125 20450 0300
83092518 002 5 257 1258 920 100 80125 0075 80400 0250
83092600 002 5 268 1251 925 100 90100 0100 80400 0250
83092606 002 5 274 1245 925 100 90100 0100 80400 0250
83092612 002 5 281 1240 925 100 90100 0100 80400 0250
83092618 002 5 289 1239 930 100 90100 0100 80400 0250
83092700 002 5 297 1240 935 090 90100 0100 80350 0250
83092706 002 5 305 1247 940 085 90100 0100 80350 0250
83092712 002 5 312 1257 945 085 90100 0100 80350 0250
83092718 002 5 319 1273 960 080 90080 0080 40250 0200
83092800 002 4 326 1293 975 060 90050 0050 90250 0250

H Wilma:
65105 10/15/2005 M=12 22 SNBR=1347 WILMA XING=1 SSS=3
65110 10/15*0000000 0 0*0000000 0 0*0000000 0 0*1760785 25 1004*
65115 10/16*1760788 25 1004*1750790 30 1003*1750792 30 1003*1750794 30 1002*
65120 10/17*1740796 30 1001*1690796 35 1000*1630797 40 999*1600798 45 997*
65125 10/18*1580799 55 988*1570799 60 982*1620803 65 979*1660811 75 975*
65130 10/19*1660818 130 946*1700822 150 892*1730828 160 882*1740834 140 892*
65135 10/20*1790840 135 892*1810847 130 901*1830852 130 910*1860855 130 917*
65140 10/21*1910858 130 924*1950861 130 930*2010864 125 929*2030867 120 926*
65145 10/22*2060868 120 930*2080870 110 935*2100871 100 947*2130871 85 958*
65150 10/23*2160870 85 960*2180868 85 962*2240861 85 961*2310854 90 963*
65155 10/24*2400843 95 958*2500831 110 953*2620810 100 950*2800788 105 955*
65160 10/25*3010760 110 955*3330720 100 963*3680679 90 970*4050635 75 976*
65165 10/26E4250600 60 978E4400575 55 982E4500550 50 986E4550520 40 990*

[Calasanjy]

Where did you get the image of Kamisy, Calasanjy?

I don't think this could compare with the other two storms; it went from strong TS to Cat 4 in 24 hr vs. to Cat 5.

Can you also present the track of Geralda and Kamisy? Thanks.

I requested it from the folks on the Meteo Reunion forum: http://www.meteo-reunion.com/le_forum/.

I believe some of the regulars on that forum are meteorologists from the center there. It's completely in French but you should be able to navigate around the site fairly easily even if you don't know the language. Previously, I had been unable to find images of SWIO storms prior to the 1991/1992 season online, but for years after that the Firinga website has some quality images and animations (also in French, but easily navigable): http://firinga.free.fr/galerie2.htm

Geralda's track (Jan-Feb 1994)




Kamisy's track (April 1984)

[P.K.]

Geraldo up to landfall on Madagascar:

DATE LAT. LON. INT_MAX INTENS RVENT_MAX STORM_TYPE RPRESS SOURCE EXT_NOM AZIM_REU DIST_REU DIST CAP VIT T
260119941800 -12,3 72,2 -99 20 25 2 1000 -99 -99 64,1 2025 -99 -99 -99 20
270119940000 -12,8 71,6 -99 25 30 2 995 -99 -99 64,5 1940,5 85,7 229,4 14,3 25
270119940600 -13 70,7 -99 30 35 3 992 -99 -99 63,6 1845,1 100,2 257,1 16,7 30
270119941200 -13 69,6 -99 30 38 3 990 -99 -99 61,5 1743,7 119,3 269,9 19,9 30
270119941800 -13 68,6 -99 30 40 3 988 -99 -99 59,5 1653,2 108,5 269,9 18,1 30
280119940000 -12,9 67,6 -99 35 44 3 985 -99 -99 56,9 1571,3 109,1 275,7 18,2 35
280119940600 -12,9 66,7 -99 35 44 3 985 -99 -99 54,7 1493,9 97,7 269,9 16,3 35
280119941200 -12,9 66 -99 35 48 3 980 -99 -99 52,8 1435,3 76 270 12,7 35
280119941800 -12,9 65,3 -99 40 52 3 976 -99 -99 50,7 1378,2 76 270 12,7 40
290119940000 -13 64,5 -99 40 56 3 972 -99 -99 48,5 1307,2 87,5 262,6 14,6 40
290119940600 -13,1 63,5 -99 45 60 3 968 -99 -99 45,3 1223,4 109 264 18,2 45
290119941200 -13,3 62,6 -99 45 62 3 964 -99 -99 42,5 1141,9 100 257 16,7 45
290119941800 -13,4 61,9 -99 50 70 4 956 -99 -99 39,8 1085,4 76,6 261,6 12,8 50
300119940000 -13,5 61,4 -99 50 75 4 950 -99 -99 37,8 1043,9 55,3 258,3 9,2 50
300119940600 -13,6 60,8 -99 55 80 4 942 -99 -99 35,2 997,6 65,9 260,2 11 55
300119941200 -13,8 60 -99 55 85 4 935 -99 -99 31,5 933 89,3 255,5 14,9 55
300119941800 -14,2 59,1 -99 60 90 4 930 -99 -99 27,3 847,7 106,9 245,3 17,8 60
310119940000 -14,5 58,2 -99 60 95 4 925 -99 -99 22 778,1 102,6 250,9 17,1 60
310119940600 -14,5 57,4 -99 65 100 4 915 -99 -99 15,9 751 86,2 269,9 14,4 65
310119941200 -14,6 56,3 -99 65 105 4 910 -99 -99 6,9 717,5 119 264,5 19,8 65
310119941800 -14,9 55,5 -99 70 110 4 905 -99 -99 0 679 92,4 248,7 15,4 70
010219940000 -15,3 54,7 -99 70 110 4 905 -99 -99 352,3 640,1 96,8 242,5 16,1 65
010219940600 -15,8 53,9 -99 70 110 4 905 -99 -99 343,5 603 102,3 236,9 17 65
010219941200 -16,2 52,9 -99 65 105 4 910 -99 -99 332,4 600,6 115,9 247,3 19,3 65
010219941800 -16,7 52 -99 65 100 4 915 -99 -99 321,8 604,1 111 239,8 18,5 60
020219940000 -17,3 51,1 -99 65 100 4 915 -99 -99 310,9 619,4 116,8 235 19,5 60
020219940600 -17,7 50,1 -99 60 95 4 925 -99 -99 302 675,6 115,1 247,1 19,2 55
020219941200 -18 49,1 -99 -99 -99 8 -99 -99 -99 295,3 749,9 111,1 252,4 18,5 99

Kamisy:

DATE LAT. LON. INT_MAX INTENS RVENT_MAX STORM_TYPE RPRESS SOURCE EXT_NOM AZIM_REU DIST_REU DIST CAP VIT T
050419840600 -12,2 69,7 -99 30 36 3 991 7 -99 57,1 1801,7 130,9 265,1 21,8 30
050419841200 -12,4 68,5 -99 30 36 3 991 7 -99 55,4 1682,4 132,2 260,3 22 30
050419841800 -12,7 67,2 -99 30 36 3 991 7 -99 53,5 1549,6 145 256,7 24,2 30
060419840000 -12,8 65,9 -99 30 36 3 991 7 -99 50,5 1433,5 141,4 265,5 23,6 30
060419840600 -12,7 64,3 -99 35 44 3 984 7 -99 45,4 1314,6 173,9 273,7 29 35
060419841200 -12,2 63,2 -99 35 44 3 984 7 -99 40 1276,8 131,7 295 22 35
060419841800 -11,8 62 -99 35 44 3 984 7 -99 34,1 1235,6 137,9 288,8 23 35
070419840000 -11,8 60,2 -99 35 44 3 984 7 -99 26,1 1139,1 195,9 270 32,6 35
070419840600 -12,3 58,7 -99 40 52 3 976 7 -99 19,4 1025,5 172,3 251,2 28,7 40
070419841200 -13 57,8 -99 50 72 4 954 7 -99 15,4 922,4 124,9 231,4 20,8 50
070419841800 -13,3 56,4 -99 55 82 4 941 7 -99 6,4 861,4 155,2 257,6 25,9 55
080419840000 -13,2 55 -99 60 92 4 927 7 -99 356,5 868,8 151,9 274,2 25,3 60
080419840600 -13 53,5 -99 60 92 4 927 7 -99 346,6 914,5 163,9 277,8 27,3 60
080419841200 -12,8 52,8 -99 60 92 4 927 7 -99 342,5 955,8 79,1 286,3 13,2 60
080419841800 -12,2 51,8 -99 55 82 4 941 7 -99 338,1 1054,8 127,4 301,6 21,2 55
090419840000 -12,1 50,4 -99 50 72 4 954 7 -99 331,2 1128,9 152,6 274,2 25,4 50
090419840600 -12,4 49 -99 45 62 3 966 7 -99 324,1 1180,4 155,7 257,6 26 45
090419841200 -12,7 48,3 -99 45 62 3 966 7 -99 320,3 1199,3 83 246,3 13,8 45
090419841800 -13 47,8 -99 45 62 3 966 7 -99 317,4 1208,8 63,6 238,4 10,6 45
100419840000 -13,1 47 -99 50 72 4 954 7 -99 314,2 1260 87,4 262,7 14,6 50
100419840600 -13,2 46,2 -99 50 72 4 954 7 -99 311,3 1314,8 87,3 262,7 14,6 50
100419841200 -13,2 45,8 -99 50 72 4 954 7 -99 310,1 1347 43,3 270 7,2 50
100419841800 -13,3 45,1 -99 45 62 3 966 7 -99 307,8 1397,7 76,6 261,7 12,8 45
110419840000 -14 45,1 -99 40 52 3 976 7 -99 305,2 1349,7 77,8 180 13 40
110419840600 -14,3 45,7 -99 40 52 3 976 7 -99 305,7 1277,8 72,8 117,3 12,1 40
110419841200 -14,8 45,9 -99 35 44 3 984 7 -99 304,2 1227,5 59,6 158,8 9,9 35
110419841800 -15 46,2 -99 35 44 3 984 7 -99 304,2 1188,3 39,2 124,6 6,5 35
120419840000 -15,4 46,6 -99 35 44 3 984 7 -99 303,5 1127,5 61,8 136 10,3 35
120419840600 -16 47 -99 -99 36 6 -99 7 -99 301,8 1054,6 79,3 147,3 13,2 99
120419841200 -16,9 47 -99 -99 36 6 -99 7 -99 297 1003,3 100,1 180 16,7 99
120419841800 -17,7 47,5 -99 -99 36 6 -99 7 -99 293,6 915,9 103,6 149,2 17,3 99
130419840000 -17,8 49 -99 20 24 3 1000 7 -99 297,6 768,9 159,2 94 26,5 20
130419840600 -18 50,4 -99 20 24 3 1000 7 -99 302 630 149,8 98,5 25 20
130419841200 -18,6 50,6 -99 20 24 3 1000 7 -99 297,5 577,9 70 162,4 11,7 20
130419841800 -19,8 50,4 -99 -99 36 6 -99 7 -99 284,1 547,9 135,1 188,9 22,5 99
140419840000 -19,7 50,5 -99 -99 36 6 -99 7 -99 285,5 540,9 15,3 43,3 2,5 99
140419840600 -20,5 50,2 -99 -99 36 6 -99 7 -99 275,8 553,8 94,3 199,4 15,7 99
140419841200 -21,7 50,1 -99 -99 36 6 -99 7 -99 262,1 564,5 133,8 184,4 22,3 99
140419841800 -22,7 50,1 -99 -99 36 6 -99 7 -99 251,3 588,4 111,2 180 18,5 99
150419840000 -24 50,2 -99 -99 36 6 -99 7 -99 238,5 638,4 144,9 176 24,1 99
150419840600 -25,4 50,6 -99 -99 36 6 -99 7 -99 225,7 700 160,8 165,4 26,8 99
150419841200 -26,7 50,9 -99 -99 36 6 -99 7 -99 216,4 787,6 147,6 168,3 24,6 99
150419841800 -28 50,9 -99 -99 36 6 -99 7 -99 210,9 906,8 144,5 180 24,1 99
160419840000 -30 50,2 -99 -99 36 6 -99 7 -99 208 1133,2 232,5 197 38,8 99
160419840600 -31,8 49,3 -99 -99 36 6 -99 7 -99 207,2 1350,2 217,8 203,2 36,3 99
040419840600 -11,8 75 -99 15 20 2 1003 7 -99 63,8 2317,7 146,8 243 24,5 15
040419841200 -11,9 73,7 -99 20 24 2 1000 7 -99 62,5 2188,5 141,9 265,5 23,6 20
040419841800 -12,1 72,2 -99 20 24 2 1000 7 -99 60,9 2036,3 164,6 262,2 27,4 20
050419840000 -12,1 70,9 -99 25 28 2 997 7 -99 58,9 1916,4 141,3 270 23,6 25
030419840600 -10 80 -99 -99 36 -99 -99 7 -99 65 2895,7 -99 -99 -99 99
030419841200 -10,4 79 -99 -99 36 -99 -99 7 -99 64,9 2777,6 118,1 247,9 19,7 99
030419841800 -11 77,7 -99 -99 36 -99 -99 7 -99 64,9 2620,1 156,9 244,8 26,2 99
040419840000 -11,2 76,2 -99 -99 36 -99 -99 7 -99 63,8 2465 165,2 262,3 27,5 99

[HurricaneBill]

NRL now has Bondo at 135kt (1-min) and 904mb.

[Cyclenall]

I'd agree that it's now at category 5 cyclone strength. The eye is improved from just 4 hours ago and the banding is expanding. There are other features that show improvement overall so we have a monster tropical cyclone now. The deep convection around the eye is larger too.

Looks rather small for a hurricane.

This isn't a hurricane, just call it a cyclone or tropical cyclone. On the loop it was quite tiny when that larger eye appeared and then it started expanding outward with banding. At the same time, the eye tightened up.

[Coredesat]

804
TPXS10 KGWC 200259

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BONDO)
B. 20/0231Z (115)
C. 10.7S/8
D. 55.7E/7
E. TWO/MET5
F. T6.5/6.5/D2.5/24HRS -19/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

01A/ PBO CDO EYE/ ANMTN.

AODT: 6.1 (OBSCURED EYE)

VAN SCHAICK

That's AFWA, SAB still says 6.5 as well. CIMSS ADT is 5.5.

[Chacor]

WWIO21 KNES 200310
SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN METEOSAT 5 IRNIGHT
.
DECEMBER 20 2006 0230Z
.
10.7S 55.7E T6.5/6.5/D3.0/24HRS BONDO (05S)

PAST POSITIONS...10.7S 58.0E 19/1430Z IRNIGHT
10.7S 59.9E 19/0230Z VIS/IRDAY
.
REMARKS...EYE WITH WHITE SURROUND HAS E NO OF 6.0. E ADJ OF +.5
FOR OW EYE WITH CMG SURROUND YIELDS DT OF 6.5. THE EYE OF THE
SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO COOL SLIGHTLY. SYSTEM HAS AN UNREPRESENTATIVE
MET OF 5.0. FT BASED ON DT.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM.
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 20/1000Z.
.
FOR AREAL DISPLAY OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL SEE OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/TROP/TRAP-IMG.HTML
ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS EXCEPT PS/TROP
.
SPAMPATA
.
NNNN

Although the main SAB site typo'ed with ST0.7/0.7...

[wxmann_91]

Thanks, calasanjy.

Going thru an ERC now:

[Chacor]

Up to 920 hPa from 915 at 0600 from MetFrance, although still 110 kt.

[Chacor]

024
TPXS10 PGTW 200908

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BONDO)

B. 20/0830Z

C. 10.3S/4

D. 54.6E/5

E. ONE/MET5

F. T6.5/7.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS (20/0530Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI LLCC

03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN.

ROACH

WWIO21 KNES 200900
SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN METEOSAT-5 IR VIS/IRDAY
.
DECEMBER 20 2006 0830Z
.
10.4S 54.6E T6.0/6.5/W0.5/06HRS BONDO (05S)
.
PAST POSITIONS....10.7S 56.9E 19/2030Z IRNIGHT
10.6S 59.1E 19/0830Z VIS/IRDAY
10.3S 54.8E 20/0702Z AMSU
.
REMARKS....MG EYE IS SURROUNDED BY BLACK RING RESULTING IN A DT
OF 5.5. PT AND MET = 6.0. FINAL-T BASED ON PT.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NMI.
.
NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 20/1600Z.
.
FOR AREAL DISPLAY OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL SEE OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/TROP/TRAP-IMG.HTML
ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS EXCEPT PS/TROP
.
KIBLER
.
NNNN

[P.K.]

Further weakening now forecast.

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/3/20062007
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO)

2.A POSITION 2006/12/20 AT 1200 UTC :
10.3S / 54.0E
(TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST
)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/6.0 MOINS /W 1.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 080 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 080
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/12/21 00 UTC: 10.1S/52.2E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2006/12/21 12 UTC: 10.0S/50.2E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
36H: 2006/12/22 00 UTC: 10.9S/48.8E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
48H: 2006/12/22 12 UTC: 11.9S/47.6E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2006/12/23 00 UTC: 12.9S/46.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2006/12/23 12 UTC: 14.0S/45.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE ACTUAL EYE CYCLE (SEE SSMI AT 0416Z) GENERATES A RAPID WEAKENING OF
BONDO, WITH AN EMBEDDED EYE ON LAST IMAGES. THIS WEAKENING COULD BE
TEMPORARY, UNTIL THE END OF THE EYE CYCLE.
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE LIGHTLY WEAKER IN THE EYE WALL, BUT THE EXTENTION OF
NEAR GALE AND STORM WINDS HAVE ENLARGED, REMAINING LIMITED FOR THIS SMALL
SIZE SYSTEM.

NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO MAKE THE SYSTEM TRACK GLOBALLY
WESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS.
SOME OF THEM MAKE IT TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL,
THREATENING MAYOTTE AT MEDIUM RANGE, OTHERS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO CURVE
MORE SOUTHWARDS, TOWARDS THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR.
THE FINAL FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THOSE TWO SCENARII.

[P.K.]

Nice image from MetOp-A here. This is one of the first images released from this new satellite.

[Chacor]

WTXS31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BONDO) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
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WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 10.2S 54.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S 54.1E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 9.9S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 10.0S 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 10.7S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 11.8S 46.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
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REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 10.1S 53.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 670 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05S HAS SLOWLY WEAKENED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO A REGION OF HIGHER VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS TC 05S HAS OSCILLATED EQUATORWARD, BUT
WILL BEGIN TO TRACK WESTWARD AGAIN BY TAU 12. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SUBTROP-
ICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY STEERING TC 05S. THIS WILL CAUSE TC 05S TO BEGIN
TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND A DISRUPTION OF LOW LEVEL INFLOW BEYOND TAU 24 WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN TC 05S TROUGH TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
201200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z AND 211500Z.//

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