NWAus: ex-TC Kara

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 23
Issued at 9:00 pm WST on Tuesday, 27 March 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING for a CATEGORY 2 CYCLONE is current for coastal areas from
Pardoo to Bidyadanga.

The CYCLONE WARNING between Whim Creek and Pardoo has been cancelled.

At 8:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Kara was estimated to be
170 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and
180 kilometres west northwest of Wallal,
moving east southeast at 20 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Kara has weakened considerably over the last 6 hours and is
expected to continue to weaken overnight. If Kara maintains an east
southeasterly track it is likely to cross Eighty Mile beach during Wednesday
morning.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal communities
during Wednesday morning as the system moves closer to the coast. Kara is not
expected to cause destructive winds on the coast.

HEAVY RAIN may cause areas of flooding in the far eastern Pilbara and western
Kimberley.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Kara at 8:00 pm WST.

Location of centre : within 55 kilometres of
latitude 18.9 south longitude 119.2 east
Recent movement : east southeast at 20 kilometres per hour
Central Pressure : 972 hectopascals
Maximum wind gusts : 150 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : 2

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Pardoo and Sandfire
Roadhouse, including Pardoo, Wallal and Sandfire Roadhouse should be taking
action in preparation for the cyclones arrival.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Sandfire Roadhouse to
Bidyadanga should commence taking precautions.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in communities near Port Hedland, South Hedland
and Whim Creek are advised that the Blue Alert has been lifted.

The next advice will be issued by 12:00 am WST Wednesday 28 March.Cyclone
advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

[font=Courier New]WEAKENING AS IT NEARS LAND.[/font]

[wxman57]

A pinhole eye at 2Z and can't hardly find the circulation center at 12Z. I'd say that's weakening.

[Coredesat]

Indeed, I can't find one at all on water vapor imagery, and QuikSCAT is inconclusive since the last pass was 2 hours ago.

[wxman57]

Indeed, I can't find one at all on water vapor imagery, and QuikSCAT is inconclusive since the last pass was 2 hours ago.

JTWC has the center moving ashore around 07Z-08Z tonight, but it looks like the center is already inland and the storm is dissipating as of 15Z. I don't see any circulation over the water. Just a sneaking suspicion that the current intensity is somwhat below the 06z 80kts. Generally, an LLC is required for a hurricane.

[Chacor]

As of 1555Z:

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 24
Issued at 11:55 pm WST on Tuesday, 27 March 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING for a CATEGORY 2 CYCLONE is current for coastal areas from
Pardoo to Bidyadanga.

At 11:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Kara was estimated to be
190 kilometres northeast of Port Hedland and
110 kilometres northwest of Wallal,
moving east southeast at 23 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Kara is expected to weaken below tropical cyclone intensity
over the next 6 to 12 hours as it moves east southeastwards towards Eighty Mile
Beach.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal communities
during Wednesday morning as the system moves towards the coast, however winds
should ease rapidly during the day.

HEAVY RAIN has eased in the central Pilbara, but is expected to persist through
the western Kimberley and adjacent parts, including Telfer.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Kara at 11:00 pm WST.

Location of centre : within 75 kilometres of
latitude 19.1 south longitude 119.9 east
Recent movement : east southeast at 23 kilometres per hour
Central Pressure : 980 hectopascals
Maximum wind gusts : 130 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : 2

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Pardoo and Sandfire
Roadhouse, including Pardoo, Wallal and Sandfire Roadhouse should be taking
action in preparation for the cyclones arrival.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Sandfire Roadhouse to
Bidyadanga should commence taking precautions.

Still over water, presumably, then.

[wxman57]

To me, it appears to have been ripped apart by wind shear with all squalls well inland. Not much left of it. Can't see any evidence of an LLC.

[Coredesat]

Latest QS:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _sh_0.html

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 25
Issued at 2:50 am WST on Wednesday, 28 March 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING for a CATEGORY 2 CYCLONE is current for coastal areas from
Pardoo to Bidyadanga.

At 2:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Kara was estimated to be
55 kilometres northwest of Wallal and
205 kilometres east northeast of Port Hedland,
moving east southeast at 20 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Kara is expected to cross the coast this morning along the
Eighty Mile Beach. Kara is forecast to weaken below tropical cyclone intensity
after landfall today.

GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour may be experienced between Pardoo
and Bidyadanga this morning, however winds should then rapidly ease.

HEAVY RAIN has eased in the central Pilbara, but is expected to persist through
the far eastern Pilbara and western Kimberley, including Telfer.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Kara at 2:00 am WST.
Location of centre : within 37 kilometres of
latitude 19.4 south longitude 120.3 east
Recent movement : east southeast at 20 kilometres per hour
Central Pressure : 980 hectopascals
Maximum wind gusts : 130 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : 2

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Pardoo and Sandfire
Roadhouse, including Pardoo, Wallal and Sandfire Roadhouse should be taking
action in preparation for the arrival of the cyclone.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Sandfire Roadhouse to
Bidyadanga should commence taking precautions.

The next advice will be issued by 6:00 am WST Wednesday 28 March.Cyclone advices
and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

[font=Georgia]HOW THINGS LOOKS DOWN & UNDER.[/font]

[HURAKAN]

A lot of rain from a small cyclone.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 27
Issued at 8:45 am WST on Wednesday, 28 March 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

The CYCLONE WARNING for coastal areas from Pardoo to Bidyadanga is CANCELLED.

At 8:00 am WST Ex-Tropical Cyclone Kara was estimated to be
80 kilometres east northeast of Wallal and
85 kilometres southwest of Bidyadanga,
moving east at 18 kilometres per hour.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Kara decayed rapidly overnight and weakened below tropical
cyclone intensity as it approached Eighty Mile Beach. The system will continue
to dissipate further during today.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to persist in parts of the far eastern Pilbara and
northern Interior today, but should ease on Thursday.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Kara at 8:00 am WST.

Location of centre : within 35 kilometres of
latitude 19.4 south longitude 121.3 east
Recent movement : east at 18 kilometres per hour
Central Pressure : 996 hectopascals
Maximum wind gusts : 85 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : Below tropical cyclone intensity

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in communities between Pardoo and Bidyadanga are
advised that all alerts have been lifted and they can proceed with caution.

No further advices will be issued for this system.Cyclone advices and State
Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone

[Chacor]

You know, the centre of Kara's remnants may not actually be inland.

OLS night VIS from a few hours ago puts the centre of Kara around 18.2S, 121.3E. Using Google Earth, this corresponds to a point offshore the NW Australian coast.



There is convection displaced a few degrees to the southeast, over land.



IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 1:00pm WST on Thursday the 29th of March 2007
For the area between LONGITUDES 110 - 125 EAST

The remains of TC Kara lies just off the West kimberley coast near 18S 121.5E.
The system is not expected to redevelop. There are no other significant tropical
lows evident and no indications that a tropical cyclone will form within the
next three days.