HurricaneHunter914 wrote:What's the next storm name once Andrea dies?
I believe the next name should be Barry.
<RICKY>
Remnants of Andrea-Thread 2
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WeatherEmperor
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AnnularCane
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MiamiensisWx
Due to increasing mid-level shear (and unfavorable thermodynamics), Andrea may dissipate as the low-level circulation moves southeast. In addition, mid-level dry air is capping convective activity over the center. On this loop, the LLC may be decoupling from the convective mass. As Andrea is a weak system, this is typically an indication of imminent weakening trends. In addition, note the southeast movement in the latest frames. As the structure is shallow, the convection may soon be stripped from the low-level center.
I believe we may be witnessing the slow demise of Andrea. The trend is also evident on water vapor imagery. As the surface front and shortwave signature moves east, shear and unfavorable dynamics may continue to take a toll. I believe Andrea will be remembered as an interesting pre-season system and a fire drill.
I believe we may be witnessing the slow demise of Andrea. The trend is also evident on water vapor imagery. As the surface front and shortwave signature moves east, shear and unfavorable dynamics may continue to take a toll. I believe Andrea will be remembered as an interesting pre-season system and a fire drill.
Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Wed May 09, 2007 9:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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AnnularCane
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The diversity in the models seems to indicate weak steering.
Most of the convection has been in the southeastern semi circle where there is warmer water. The centers of weak systems like this often chase the strongest convection. In Andrea`s case the strongest convection looks like it will be staying east of the coastline.
Most of the convection has been in the southeastern semi circle where there is warmer water. The centers of weak systems like this often chase the strongest convection. In Andrea`s case the strongest convection looks like it will be staying east of the coastline.
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jaxfladude
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Tampa Bay Hurricane
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Tampa Bay Hurricane
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Forecast for Andrea:
The Low Level Circulation is likely to remain somewhat
lop-sided with most convection located to the Southeast.
However, I expect that over the next 12 hours the center
will chase the convection and converge with it,
and being further southeast over the gulf stream
with more ocean heat content to work
with a slow strengthening trend is forecasted from
there. As for steering currents, the steering currents are
very weak so Andrea will likely remain in the same
general vicinity for 2-4 days.
And So I give my forecast
Tonight 11 PM: 45 mph, temporary weakening as
low level center attempts to chase convection
11 AM Thursday: 40 mph, center trying to merge with convection,
or some loss of convection due to loss of heating
11 PM Thursday: 50 mph, strengthening as low level center
meets up with convection
11 AM Friday: 50 mph, loss of daytime heating, but maintenance
of convection in general
11 PM Friday: 55 mph, heat content waters
11 AM Saturday: 50 mph, proximity to land
11 PM Saturday: 40 mph, proximity to land
In my forecast landfall does not occur until Sunday if at all,
in fact it's likely to remain 20-60 miles offshore through this
period.
Forecast for Andrea:
The Low Level Circulation is likely to remain somewhat
lop-sided with most convection located to the Southeast.
However, I expect that over the next 12 hours the center
will chase the convection and converge with it,
and being further southeast over the gulf stream
with more ocean heat content to work
with a slow strengthening trend is forecasted from
there. As for steering currents, the steering currents are
very weak so Andrea will likely remain in the same
general vicinity for 2-4 days.
And So I give my forecast
Tonight 11 PM: 45 mph, temporary weakening as
low level center attempts to chase convection
11 AM Thursday: 40 mph, center trying to merge with convection,
or some loss of convection due to loss of heating
11 PM Thursday: 50 mph, strengthening as low level center
meets up with convection
11 AM Friday: 50 mph, loss of daytime heating, but maintenance
of convection in general
11 PM Friday: 55 mph, heat content waters
11 AM Saturday: 50 mph, proximity to land
11 PM Saturday: 40 mph, proximity to land
In my forecast landfall does not occur until Sunday if at all,
in fact it's likely to remain 20-60 miles offshore through this
period.
Last edited by Tampa Bay Hurricane on Wed May 09, 2007 9:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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good she is sliding SE just hold together for another 12 hours turn what's left of the swell machine toward palm beach county again.
storm took out parking lot in jupiter fl http://evsjupiter.netfirms.com/main.htm
lake worth inlet tuesday http://dadecosurf.com/index.php?q=galle ... temId=6270
and again 12 feet sets http://dadecosurf.com/index.php?q=galle ... temId=6243
storm took out parking lot in jupiter fl http://evsjupiter.netfirms.com/main.htm
lake worth inlet tuesday http://dadecosurf.com/index.php?q=galle ... temId=6270
and again 12 feet sets http://dadecosurf.com/index.php?q=galle ... temId=6243
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theworld wrote:MODIS has a real nice sat shot of Andrea here w/HI Res available...
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gall ... 00.2km.jpg
i take it the red spots are some of the wildfires?
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MiamiensisWx
Say goodbye to Andrea. Mid-level shear has been undercutting the structure. The LLC definitely appears to be decoupling.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv-l.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg
A broad naked swirl with no defined surface circulation may be the dominant feature within 24 hours.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv-l.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg
A broad naked swirl with no defined surface circulation may be the dominant feature within 24 hours.
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Subtropical Storm Andrea looked a lot like Tropical Storm Arlene did back in 2005 at 6:00 pm this evening. I just took a look at Andrea at around 6 pm and the banding looked very much like Arlene at one point. Just something on Andrea I thought was neat.
I honestly didn't think the low would become a STS and only thought it had a 7% chance of doing so. Well, this is just some pre-season action to get us in the mood.
I honestly didn't think the low would become a STS and only thought it had a 7% chance of doing so. Well, this is just some pre-season action to get us in the mood.
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