Large area of storms off of Hatteras...

[punkyg]

punkyg what do you see in the caribean? or are you just kinda watchin it out of boredom

Just bored, but also watching wave in central atlantic.

[storms in NC]

Even with the fire up gone it is sill getting to a good size.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

Deb

[Bane]

it is definitely weakening.

this happens in the evening time then will flair back up in the Am. I for got what they called it. But it is holding together nicely. If it does I think they will put it as a interest.JIMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

if it was a low pressure area, then it might flare back up, but this was just a complex of storms. it is done.

[Ptarmigan]

Quite impressive on satellite. Worth watching for the next few days. If it keeps persisting, could form into something tropical.

[HURAKAN]

Still there.

[Cyclone1]

Wow, It refired, didn't expect that.

[tailgater]

Yes looks like a low trying to form @ 36N -71W but it's hard to find a good loop this morning. Lets see if it can develop before it reaches the cold waters to the NE as it will likely get lifted out by the trough to it's west.

[storms in NC]

the front is to stall out when it get here. So IF it stall it will just feed it more. But yes it will go on out to sea in a few days.
Oh I better show my findings

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
930 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NC TODAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. STILL LOOKING FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE IN THE
DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEERING WINDS WILL BE STRONGER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH STORM MOTION 260 DEGREES/35-40 KTS SO
SLOW-MOVING STORMS/LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY NOT BE AS MUCH OF A THREAT
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THOSE SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE A DRY
LAYER BELOW 850 MB SO DOWNBURST WINDS COULD POSE A HAZARD. FORECAST
IS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE TO LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THE TSTM ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. SLIGHT DRYING
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA
THEN DISSIPATES. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR CHANCE POPS THU AND FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FCST. FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE W
FRI NIGHT AND SAT THEN LIFT N OR DISSIPATE SUN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ATMS LOOKS TO REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH SCT CONVECTION
LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS LOOKS SEASONAL WITH HIGHS AROUND
90 OR SO INLAND WITH CST MID 80S. WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH HIGH
DEWPTS...THIS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

[Bane]

Wow, It refired, didn't expect that.

it didn't refire. that is another blob of storms that moved off the coast last night.

[Coredesat]

Looks impressive but seems to be a surface trough. The models don't seem to pick anything up, though there's obviously plenty of instability for it to at least fire up deep convection.

[weatherwoman]

Morehead City does not have a weather service office it is in Newport jfyinfo

[Aric Dunn]

i would pay more attention to the Low east of that area.. for possible sub tropical .. that looks fairly close .. already // wonder if NHC will say anything about it

[Aric Dunn]

SST's are abut 24 to 25 degrees which is what epsilon formed over in 2005 .. in the east atlantic...


this loop shows it with the other area of convection..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-rgb.html

[wjs3]

Aric:

Eye-catching, yes, but still a little too frontal to be sub-tropical in my opinion--sitting on a warm front:

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA.shtml

WJS3

[Aric Dunn]

remember this sub tropical storm last year..


formed in mid july




In the post-season analysis, an additional tropical storm was identified to have formed out of an extratropical low produced by the same frontal boundary that spawned Tropical Storm Beryl in the Gulf Stream on July 17, south of Nantucket Island. It was briefly a tropical storm before becoming a remnant low on July 18 southeast of Nova Scotia. It crossed over Atlantic Canada with rain and wind, but no damage or fatalities were reported. Had it been discovered operationally, it would have been named Tropical Storm Beryl.[18] It dissipated northeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric:

Eye-catching, yes, but still a little too frontal to be sub-tropical in my opinion--sitting on a warm front:

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA.shtml

WJS3

umm no thats not the same systems .... that low is too far north.,. ours is way south of there.. about 58 west and 36 north /

[wjs3]

Y'know, looking at it a bit more, I think I missed that front--I had the system on it, but the warm front seems to be north of it. Cold-frontal-like feature trailing off to its SW, though, at least based on a quick look at satellite. Odd. All of the surface charts, streamlines, etc don't show a low there.

Have fun. Gotta run!

WJS3

[wjs3]

Stepped on your post there Aric.

Agreed. I missed it.

See ya!

[punkyg]

i would pay more attention to the Low east of that area.. for possible sub tropical .. that looks fairly close .. already // wonder if NHC will say anything about it

This low already
looks subtropical to me. I bet they are not gonna pay attention to it.

[Aric Dunn]

i would pay more attention to the Low east of that area.. for possible sub tropical .. that looks fairly close .. already // wonder if NHC will say anything about it

This low already
looks subtropical to me. I bet they are not gonna pay attention to it.

well if they dont .. thats ok i guess. but like last year. that overlooked it and had to do the whole post analysis thing..

i would say its very close to sub tropical ... if we see even the slightest bit more convection .. i would say it should be deemed a subtropical something either STD OR STS

but hey either way not really going to be a big deal .. it will just be a record keeping thing.


should we start a new quik thread..

since its only going to last for about 36 hrs .. or so .. .