VERY INTRESTING. Model still developing a Low Pressure in G

[CourierPR]

If something were to form, it would have to be closely monitored because intensity forecasts are really tricky. I think back to how Wilma held together when many expected upper level shear to take hold as it approached South Florida.

Barry

[gatorcane]

the wave that the CMC sees developing will be in the Atlantic just north of the Greater Antilles in about 7 days. An end-of-July tropical system approaching the Bahamas is not that unusual for the end of July.

[CrazyC83]

If something were to form, it would have to be closely monitored because intensity forecasts are really tricky. I think back to how Wilma held together when many expected upper level shear to take hold as it approached South Florida.

Barry

South Florida storms are especially unpredictable due to the tropical waters surrounding. However, I didn't find it that surprising how Wilma held up. It wasn't that big of a jump anyway - from 90 kt to 110 kt over an 18 hour period isn't exactly rapid intensification. Even if Wilma had not strengthened at all, there still would have been significant damage and widespread power outages.

I remember with Charley I thought it would strengthen all along to a Cat 4 despite the official forecasts saying otherwise.

[wxman57]

the wave that the CMC sees developing will be in the Atlantic just north of the Greater Antilles in about 7 days. An end-of-July tropical system approaching the Bahamas is not that unusual for the end of July.

Not for the Canadian model. Note that the ECMWF has an inverted trof at 700mb and 500mb at 168 hrs, but no surface feature. I think that's much more likely.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/f168.gif

Here's the tropical ECMWF at 168hrs:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWFTROPATL_12z/f168.gif

[SouthFloridawx]

I would never say never with a wave that extends that far north...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif

[Meso]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/20 ... /slp24.png
For entertainment purposes

[Cyclone1]

This is crazy, it's been developing this phantom storm for 2 days.

[Weatherfreak14]

It makes this possible storm track look too much like Katrinia, and its with the same model that nailed katrinia too. Kinda scary.

[Blown Away]

http://meteocentre.com/models/modelsgem_e.html#GLB00
If I'm reading this correctly the CMC has a tropical storm moving through the Florida Straits (Hour 144) then moves WSW across the Gulf, deepens into possible hurricane (Hour 192) and makes landfall near N Mexico (Hour 216). If this continues we will have the Texas people talking about this, then this thread will start adding some pages. At least we have something to talk about, even if it is not much.

[DanKellFla]

Fooey, it's a phantom. But maybe I will go get 5 gallons of gas anyways....

[wzrgirl1]

what's it picking up...i don't see anything out there

[hial2]

How many hundreds of miles is the margin of error this far out?...If something WERE to form,it could land anywhere from New York to Central America

[wxman57]

what's it picking up...i don't see anything out there

The Canadian model is not very good for the tropics, but what I think it's seeing is the interaction between a tropical wave along 50-52W and an upper low centered near 30N/52W with an upper-level trof extending S-SSW into the wave. The upper low is forecast to move WSW toward south Florida over the coming week. You can see the latest GFS forecast of the upper low movement here:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/index_500_mu_loop.shtml

The Canadian model's physics isn't quite right for such interactions in the tropics, so it develops a spurious TS heading for south Florida rather than just a slight increase in thunderstorm chances with the approach of the upper low like the other models.

[wzrgirl1]

Yeah I tried to go to the PSU site to get the CMC run for this morning and for some reason that's the only model that's not loading in.......the latest run I have is from Thursday....does anyone have another way to get to the CMC model?

[CrazyC83]

It makes this possible storm track look too much like Katrinia, and its with the same model that nailed katrinia too. Kinda scary.

It's 7 weeks earlier than Katrina though. The water cannot support a 902mb storm in mid-July.

[Meso]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
New cmc run quite different to the previous,it doesn't develop it until it reaches the gulf...
Once again,just.. something to look at..

[miamicanes177]

It's 7 weeks earlier than Katrina though. The water cannot support a 902mb storm in mid-July.

The track it would take according to the 12Z cmc run would bring it over SST's as warm, and TCHP warmer than those katrina passed. Those waters would actually indeed support a 902mb storm.

[jaxfladude]

I thought this season was supposed to be a dud...

It's 7 weeks earlier than Katrina though. The water cannot support a 902mb storm in mid-July.

The track it would take according to the 12Z cmc run would bring it over SST's as warm, and TCHP warmer than those katrina passed. Those waters would actually indeed support a 902mb storm.

I am no expert, but I recall something about a model that shows the maximum potential of SST's to support a 902mb storm(or any storm or hurricane) not very likely to have happen, prefect conditions all around would have to be in place for such a powerful hurricane to happen in the area that you are talking about in any part of the hurricane season.

[wxman22]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/20 ... /slp24.png
For entertainment purposes

One thing to notice is the GFS allso HINTS at an area of possibly closed low pressure developing around the same area.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084m.gif

Even though the GFS does not develope anything it still shows hints of an area of low pressure developing in the western Gulf and bringing a lot moisture into the Texas Gulf coast something to atleast watch...

[WindRunner]

It's 7 weeks earlier than Katrina though. The water cannot support a 902mb storm in mid-July.

The track it would take according to the 12Z cmc run would bring it over SST's as warm, and TCHP warmer than those katrina passed. Those waters would actually indeed support a 902mb storm.

Barely . . . but storms don't fulfill their TCHP because it's defined as a "maximum possible intensity" - i.e. no land interaction, no shear, no dry air - a perfect environment. That doesn't happen in the gulf, and that doesn't happen in July.
If this was 2005, I would still only see it maxing out in the mid-930s, and that would only be if it went through the straights. On this track, nothing close to 950mb is even possible, much less 902mb.