Tropical Wave Midway Between Africa and Lesser Antilles

[windstorm99]

I would not be surprised to see 96L in the next day or two.

[bvigal]

Man i still don't know how big this wave is.
can some one tell me.

Er, not sure what you mean by "how big"? Here is the National Hurricane Center description of the wave (2pm today)
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT
WITH A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. BROAD INVERTED-V
CURVATURE WITH A SMALL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
11N-15N BETWEEN 27W-30W.
So the area we are looking at is a low near 14N 27W. The wave itself stretching up to 20N. You can see it drawn by going to this link
(hope this helps)

[punkyg]

Now thats one big fat wave!

Do any of yall think this has a better chance at developing cause i certainly do.

[punkyg]

See our three loving systems and our CV wave is the biggest.

hey i got more goodies for you all about our CV wave.

[punkyg]

So did the quikscat pass over this wave earlier or do we have to wait til later?

[skysummit]

Now thats one big fat wave!

Do any of yall think this has a better chance at developing cause i certainly do.

What???? Earlier today you said it was "fizzling". LOL

[Derek Ortt]

SAL for this wave

[skysummit]

SAL for this wave

It's there, but not THAT strong. It's actually weaker right now than it was this morning. Given the moisture associated with this wave, I believe it has a "so/so" chance at developing.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

A 1010mb low associated with the tropical wave as of the 18Z TPC Surface Analysis

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif

[hurricanetrack]

Again, gotta go with the globals on this one. Looks like only the UKMET develops it as GFS and ECMWF show nothing for the next 10 days in the Basin. Nothing at all. Something is missing from the equation in the tropics this season- it really seems like it.

We are approaching mid-September in the long range models and none show any real shot of developing hurricanes. I wonder what the reason is this season? Perhaps dry air from Africa is the cause and no one counted on it being such a negative factor. We have at least a decent shot of going 2 years+ with no hurricanes hitting the United States- in my opinion. I would not have ever thought that one month ago but am giving it perhaps a 1 in 4 chance as of now....hey, we did it in 2000,2001. Not until Lili in October 2002 did a hurricane hit the U.S.

[Meso]

Well the EURO has been showing development at around 200 Hours for a few runs,it did back down on the 12z of that,but it may change again.But it has been showing it.

The GFS closes a low and then loses it after a while,it did develop it for a while though.Also showing a bit of development off the Florida/S.C coast

Ukmet has been really consistent on the development of something near the Cape Verdes.Seems to form another low off Florida next week,or just keeps 95l which is still something.

NOGAPS also closes a low off the coast and then loses it.But also develops a low off Florida next week.

MM5 closes off a low off Africa and deepens it a bit but loses it after a while.As well as deepening the system off Florida/S.C quite a bit

CMC develops 2 waves off the African coast in it's run.

So there is some models support for something.Quite often models don't pick up on storms until they are close or even formed.So one can't write off the next 10 days cause of 2 models opinions.

[punkyg]

Now thats one big fat wave!

Do any of yall think this has a better chance at developing cause i certainly do.

What???? Earlier today you said it was "fizzling". LOL

I was talking about the wave that was over africa thats starting to move off shore not this beauty.

[CrazyC83]

I would not be surprised to see 96L in the next day or two.

This might be 97L if Campeche comes alive...

[punkyg]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

Oh man the convection is weakining.

[hurricanetrack]

It's as big as Texas, sir.

What movie? Anyone?

[Cyclone1]

It's as big as Texas, sir.

What movie? Anyone?

Armegedon?

[ConvergenceZone]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

Oh man the convection is weakining.

What's new....Other than Dean, this pattern is really reminding me of 2006. Same old song and dance....

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

NHC 8:05 pm Discussion

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 21N IS MOVING W ABOUT 13 KT WITH
A 1011 MB LOW ON THE WAVE AXIS 14N28W. THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE
EMBEDDED IN A BROAD MONSOON CYCLONIC GYRE THAT COVERS THE AREA
FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA WSW TO NEAR 31N AND FROM 9N-20N.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 12N-14.5N BETWEEN
26W-31W.

[RL3AO]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

Oh man the convection is weakining.

What's new....Other than Dean, this pattern is really reminding me of 2006. Same old song and dance....

This season cannot be compared to 2006. 2006 had an El Nino, 2007 has a La Nina. 2006 had no landfalling hurricanes, 2007 had a freakin Cat 5 make landfall.

And what do you mean same old song and dance? Does diurnal minimum mean absolutely nothing to you? I'm sorry we are not watching for Tropical Storm Pi to develop, but there are 2 invests, plus a third possible tomorrow and a very impressive wave about to exit Africa.

[skysummit]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

Oh man the convection is weakining.

What's new....Other than Dean, this pattern is really reminding me of 2006. Same old song and dance....

That's funny....especially when the two seasons have nothing in common!!! Heck...where's the persistent east coast trough that turned everything out to sea last year? It has been taken over with a ridiculously strong ridge. Last year was El Nino, this year is neutral with La Nina on its way. ....and like another member already said, we had a freakin landfalling Category 5!