Season Cancel? Switch Has Yet to Turn On

[Coredesat]

Those years you mentioned aren't 2007 though. Just because those seasons sprung to life in the late season, means absolutely nothing with regards to 2007...Did you make that same post last year too around this time??? Were you right then? There can be many dry years just like many wet years. I don't understand what the big deal is believing the season is going to be one of those dry years....

Actually, I didn't. I was just trying to make the point that just because the season seems to be inactive right now doesn't mean it will continue to be so, because I'm seeing it a lot, and most of the people saying it are those who wishcast and predict 20+ storms every year.

[fci]

I think we will continue with a quieter than normal season. No real reason to think that the accelerator will suddenly get pumped and name after name will appear.

Yeah, it can happen but why after a rather quiet season this far?
Sure, someone will dust off a year where the tropics just exploded with activity after a season started just like this.
But that would not be the norm.

My opinion is that there is another threat out there before we are done with this season. A few named storms to come, maybe 5,6 or 8 but the "garden variety" types like Chantal that develop in the Atlantic and go out to sea or in the Bay of Campeche and have a very short life.

Down here in South Florida, the Wilma-type scenario comes into play when we hit October and that may be the threat that is left. A Cat 5 that hits Yucatan and gets pushed here by a cold front and is a 2/3 when it gets here?
Probably not.
THAT was an unusual set up where the NHC predicted a sharp right turn about 5-7 days in advance. Truly amazing how it followed the forecast that far out.

So, a vote of NO for Season Cancel from this correspondent (sounds like a cool phrase so I used it!) but nothing "spectacular" to come.

Just my humble opinion based on my experience of following these things from down here for many, many years......

[Tropics Guy]

Season cancel?, I don't think so, we're just getting into the busy time (Sept, Oct), granted it will probably just end up being an average year as far as number of storms.
There does seem to be a missing ingredient for development in the tropics for now, but once the switch turns on, there should be plenty of development out there, probably closer-in or "homegrown type".

TG

[Category 5]

Remember, the normal for named storms in a season is 11, we've got 5 going into the peak.

funny, I'm only 17 years old and I remember when the yearly average was 9.

[SouthFloridawx]

Do you have any reasoning, besides the models not showing anything on the horizon?

[Meso]

First of all "No model's showing anything significant in the next 10 days"
Here is the GFS for 10 days time

Showing 2 systems,one rather deep.And has been showing these storms on and off for a while.
The Ukmet met has been forecasting a storm (although not intense,but develops one)
1 or 2 models develop 95l and/or another system off Florida next week.

I think it might have been Mike W. who said that he expects a very busy October.Which is still very possible.

The number of waves that poof is pretty much average for anything besides for 2004 and 2005,when people seem to have gotten used to something that isn't normal.

The remember just in a 1 or 2 days we got 2 named storms (Dean and Erin),Which could very well happen again.The GFS constantly been on and off developing 1 or 2 biggish systems off the Cape Verdes has got my attention.Other models also show lows moving off throughout their 144 Hours.Not materializing to much but still.The GFS was showing almost the same thing with Dean,although it deepened it more (but look we got a CAT 5),the model showed nothing on some runs with Dean too,or weaker systems.

My eyes would be off the coast of Florida in the next week and also watching the waves off Africa to see if anything the models have been showing materializes.


SAL is lighter than it's been all year and as one can see,94l as well as the wave behind it is paving quite a nice moist way for anything that comes off soon. If waves can keep rolling off and even just moistening the air ahead of an approaching wave it will give more chance.Remember early in the season it was mainly the SAL and dry air that was invading the waves coming off.

One needs to remember there is hardly ever continuous activity in the Atlantic.And just because a few invests "poof" doesn't mean there won't be a small influx in activity where a few won't make it.Dean was already historic,and it's still August.Peak is next month.

I agree it's frustrating when there is no activity for me,but it's not something weird or abnormal.It's just the way many seasons are,and all it takes is one storm if Dean had hit the US or a more populated area (Actually amazing how little deaths and injuries were caused by a Cat 5 cane) it might have been the one.Deffinitely not a season "cancel" maybe a less than average season though. But again we will have to wait a while and see.No one can be sure what's going to happen.Not even the models.

[KWT]

yeah good post Meso, things can change pretty quickly and the long range models are also forecasting the Azores high to weaken a touch as well and head even further north which may well reduce the amount of stablity present.

Once again lets remind oursleves of 2001, 4 tropical storms at this stage and no Felix till the 11th of September, still plenty of time yet to get 13-15 storms, esp if the late season is active.

[weatherwindow]

while august has been relatively slow given some of the hyper-seasons of late and current modelling doesnt sniff out much activity in the near term, no season in the reanalysis record ended before sept 17(1930)...that said, i am tending to lend more credence to the idea of a 1932-1935 season analog as applying to the 04-07 period...while 1935 was slightly more active(3 vs 2) than 07, each included the genesis of a landfalling cat 5. september 1935 saw 1 storm(cat 3), forming in the last two weeks of the month. october, 2 storms(cat 1), and november 1 storm(cat 1)....lets see if this analog verifies...in any event, the season, even with these reduced expectation is not over.......rich

[weatherwoman]

I hate to think it is over and I dont really think it is but I also dont think there will be much more activity maybe a couple of fish dead season i think.

[stormchazer]

4 Invest right now......Yep, season cancel!

[vbhoutex]

I hate to think it is over and I dont really think it is but I also dont think there will be much more activity maybe a couple of fish dead season i think.

I wish I had confidence in this scenario!! While I don't expect a record breaking season, I am not at all confident that there will be no more landfallers this season. What a relief that would be if that came to pass!!!!

[CrazyC83]

Season cancel? We have FOUR Invests and two solid waves right now...

[Ed Mahmoud]

4 Invest right now......Yep, season cancel!

Well, 96L is the invest that people expected 95L to be, if that makes sense.


3.5 invests in my book.

[Brent]

I think the switch was just turned on!

So this is how we get activity, make a season cancel thread.

[Weatherfreak000]

The main problem is people don't know when to STOP forecasting development.


When a storm will develop (Pre-Erin, Pre-Dean) it will become obvious.

Barry, Andrea and Chantal are obvious pre-activity anomalies. Let's sit back and be a little serious here.

[fci]

Season cancel? We have FOUR Invests and two solid waves right now...

This may end up being the Story of 2007.
Lots of Invests, very little in terms of development.

Far cry from 2005 when just about every Invest seemed to be a storm.

[stormchazer]

Season cancel? We have FOUR Invests and two solid waves right now...

This may end up being the Story of 2007.
Lots of Invests, very little in terms of development.

Far cry from 2005 when just about every Invest seemed to be a storm.

That is the problem with some folks. 2005 was an exception, not the rule! If every little wave does not develop, people scream "SEASON CANCELLED"! Sheesh!

[CrazyC83]

How would you want a repeat of 1914? (1 tropical storm, 0 hurricanes)

[Category 5]

How would you want a repeat of 1914? (1 tropical storm, 0 hurricanes)

This forum would be "Season Cancel" posts top to bottom.

[jasons2k]

I think this thread title will need to be changed very soon. As evidenced by the number of invests we have - hardly "pathetic" going into the Labor day weekend - not only is the "on" switch about to turn on, I think someone already has his finger on it.