Long Range Models

[Ivanhater]

even UKMET is developing something in the E Atl now

Great point Derek, the UKMET this year has been the model that develops the least so when it latches on, it is quite interesting

[Category 5]

Getting excited over a 360 hour plus GFS model depiction of a hurricane, it is like smoking illegal substances, or the weather equivalent of dirty magazines.

You'd have to be to get all hyped up over a 360 hour GFS run.

[blp]

even UKMET is developing something in the E Atl now

Great point Derek, the UKMET this year has been the model that develops the least so when it latches on, it is quite interesting

I would say the NOGAPS have been pretty conservative as well maybee even more than the UKMET. If NOGAPS starts showing it then I am going to really pay attention.

[Mecklenburg]

so thing may get busy next week huh?... better get the popcorn and soda ready...

[Ivanhater]

I would say the NOGAPS have been pretty conservative as well maybee even more than the UKMET. If NOGAPS starts showing it then I am going to really pay attention.

You better start paying attention then

[Mecklenburg]

I would say the NOGAPS have been pretty conservative as well maybee even more than the UKMET. If NOGAPS starts showing it then I am going to really pay attention.

You better start paying attention then

hopefully atlantic season would come to life next week... it has been pretty boring now...i hope the future 92L invest over africa would be quite interesting...

[x-y-no]

18z gfs shows the same closed low as the ukmet - roundabout 40w on day 6. If we get a bit more consistency run to run over the next day or two I'll be ready to say we have something.

[x-y-no]

0z and 6z GFS develops a pair of systems in tandem beginning day 5. The lead one is the same low reerred to above wrt the ukmet.

Day 6, same timepoint 0z and 6z runs:





It later takes the lead system through the windward islands then across Cuba, the trailing system through the leeward islands and Hispaniola.


EDIT: Oops - correction - the 0z does that - the 6z recurves them.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 091544
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR

ISSUED 557 AM AST SAT AUG 9 2008/

IN THE LONGER RANGE...GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC TO BEGIN TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL WAVE
ORGANIZATION AND INTENSIFICATION NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND...AND MAY
SIGNAL THE END TO THE PAST TWO WEEKS OF QUIET CONDITIONS THERE.
STAY TUNED TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

[DanKellFla]

Getting excited over a 360 hour plus GFS model depiction of a hurricane, it is like smoking illegal substances, or the weather equivalent of dirty magazines.

But 2 week hurricane forecasts from a model that gets a grid scale lobotomy at 180 hours, well, getting excited off that is just sad.

Meteography??? Pornology??? Ed, that is really funny.

It may just be my perception. But, for the last few days, it has been quiet. Which, is fine by me. Usually, the models show something popping up a week out this time of year. I take those runs with a grain of salt. The last time I checked, there was nothing. Not that I am complaining, just worried that something will show up just off the coast and slam S. Florida.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Getting excited over a 360 hour plus GFS model depiction of a hurricane, it is like smoking illegal substances, or the weather equivalent of dirty magazines.

But 2 week hurricane forecasts from a model that gets a grid scale lobotomy at 180 hours, well, getting excited off that is just sad.

Meteography??? Pornology??? Ed, that is really funny.

It may just be my perception. But, for the last few days, it has been quiet. Which, is fine by me. Usually, the models show something popping up a week out this time of year. I take those runs with a grain of salt. The last time I checked, there was nothing. Not that I am complaining, just worried that something will show up just off the coast and slam S. Florida.

If the Euro is right, Florida has to watch the Gulf and the Atlantic. Not that the Euro is right...

[canetracker]

Per the animated loop, the system in the GOM moves in from the Atlantic. Can't tell but looks like it tracks westward??
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!120!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008080912!!!step/

[Ed Mahmoud]

Per the animated loop, the system in the GOM moves in from the Atlantic
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!120!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008080912!!!step/

Yup, and it starts turning more Northward at the end. I don't put too much stock in any model for specifics at 10 days, but it would seem 500 mb steering is aimed North, maybe towards the Central Gulf.

[canetracker]

Thanks for the explanation Ed.

[cycloneye]

The runs of the models will be posted here and not on any particular thread for a wave as there are more than one possible development scenarios despicted by the models.

[canetracker]

00z GFS is starting to roll in

[GeneratorPower]

00z GFS appears to develop the 2nd and 4th waves.

[canetracker]

GFS @ 12 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_012l.gif

[canetracker]

GFS @ 12 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_012l.gif
GFS @ 24 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_024l.gif
GFS @ 36 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_036l.gif

[Mecklenburg]

00z GFS appears to develop the 2nd and 4th waves.

it looks to me, the 3rd wave and the 4th.... i'm not so sure...