Models Developing a Strong Tropical Wave to Move Off Africa

[jimvb]

Good God?? Nothing that can create something like what we see in 2009/08/12/18Z GFS can be good.

Katrina's Brother? We have a group at our church that helps the people of the MS Gulf Coast get back on their feet - we call it the Katrina Project. They make periodic trips from Virginia to Mississippi to help. If this storm comes, we will have to rename or hyphenate the name of the project.

18Z takes it to NO (or NOLA, but not LA - that could be Los Angeles). So what will 00Z take it to? Place your bets. Even odds for EC. 5-2 odds on GOM. I think the storm is going to Las Vegas. Does GFS help? Or is it a crapshoot?

[Plant grower]

I can not wait for this to develop. It will be a long two and a half weeks ahead. Hope everyone is ready.

[jinftl]

Many people on this board have fresh memories of KAtrina....including yourself it sounds...there is no need for posts like this right now. This is an impending threat to MS...LA....FL...anywhere....when we are in a 5-day window....until then, this is speculation that can only serve to more-than-likely distress folks needlessly....let's focus on the science, not the hype.

A family going on vacation in Nantucket in 2 weeks has as much of a chance as New Orleans as having to deal with this....and both of those areas have a less than 1% chance at that, as of now

Good God?? Nothing that can create something like what we see in 2009/08/12/18Z GFS can be good.

Katrina's Brother? We have a group at our church that helps the people of the MS Gulf Coast get back on their feet - we call it the Katrina Project. They make periodic trips from Virginia to Mississippi to help. If this storm comes, we will have to rename or hyphenate the name of the project.

18Z takes it to NO (or NOLA, but not LA - that could be Los Angeles). So what will 00Z take it to? Place your bets. Even odds for EC. 5-2 odds on GOM. I think the storm is going to Las Vegas. Does GFS help? Or is it a crapshoot?

[Gustywind]

I can tell you that as an "islander" in Barbados, we are watching this one with keen interest, there is no sense of panic at this time, I was out having a coffee and there were a couple of people around a laptop looking at the NOAA site. The general consensus from them was it is always best to be prepared as we have been spared the wrath of a bad storm for years. Whilst the US mainland maybe looking at two weeks away we in these parts may be looking at a much shorter time frame should it be headed our way and will be monitoring its progress and making the necessary plans.

Absolutely my carib friend, you're right don't let your guard down, we should monitor the tropics closely as we're approaching the peak of the hurricane season. It's a bit amazing to see all that predictions showing a developing feature racing on the islands during the next couple of days , but should it verifies first
Don't forget to go in our thread the TENT viewtopic.php?f=20&t=85676&hilit= You can post any infos about the weather in the carib family, we will appreciate your presence here

[Stormcenter]

If I didn't know any better it almost sounds like you're excited.

I can not wait for this to develop. It will be a long two and a half weeks ahead. Hope everyone is ready.

[Plant grower]

Yes I love tracking storms and it has been a boring season so far.

[jinftl]

i guarantee you, he isn't alone in that...if you're typing posts about a potential cyclone developing down the road this far out...guilty! efin

if there is no passion, no excitement....why would we be here? LOL

I am excited...which in no way means i want doom and gloom...i also look forward to june 1, and am confident that wont send me straight to you know where one day....

If I didn't know any better it almost sounds like you're excited.

I can not wait for this to develop. It will be a long two and a half weeks ahead. Hope everyone is ready.

[ROCK]

If I didn't know any better it almost sounds like you're excited.

I can not wait for this to develop. It will be a long two and a half weeks ahead. Hope everyone is ready.

WE enjoy this forum to talk about "what ifs" then when the time comes we all get our up to date information from here.....what's wrong with that?

The reason for the more westward track is because its taking more time to develope thus going with the low level flow and or that is a fairly strong ridge... Besides its the 18z GFS not exactly the best run of the day....0z and 12z trump the 18z everytime.....

[Rainband]

jinftl i meant track not development

[jinftl]

jinftl i meant track not development

[HURAKAN]

This disturbance not doing any better than TD 2

[jinftl]

an observation that may be true...but has no relation to the potential...no models...none of the ones that consistently develop this system are hinged about the system developing right now.

the models jumping on this new system never showed much more than weak ts from td#2 that would be on the decline in 5 days......apples and oranges

the nooa tropical development probability graphic on the prior page has pegged the development of this new system as many time more likely than td2....at one point, katrina was a rainshower too....if down the road the models are not being realized, then we'll talk!

This disturbance not doing any better than TD 2

[Stormcenter]

I'm here for info from the Pro Mets. I rather not track any storms after 2005 & 2008.

i guarantee you, he isn't alone in that...if you're typing posts about a potential cyclone developing down the road this far out...guilty! efin

if there is no passion, no excitement....why would we be here? LOL

I am excited...which in no way means i want doom and gloom...i also look forward to june 1, and am confident that wont send me straight to you know where one day....

If I didn't know any better it almost sounds like you're excited.

I can not wait for this to develop. It will be a long two and a half weeks ahead. Hope everyone is ready.

[ROCK]

I'm here for info from the Pro Mets. I rather not track any storms after 2005 & 2008.

If I didn't know any better it almost sounds like you're excited.

I can not wait for this to develop. It will be a long two and a half weeks ahead. Hope everyone is ready.

[/quote]



I can respect that....but you need to respect some peoples passion for the tropics....some of us live for this time of year.....2 months out of the year I enjoy watching, tracking and informing. Its an exciting time for me and for others...

[HurricaneRobert]

The high pressure ridge over Texas has been relentlessly strong this season. Last year it was weak to almost nonexistent (bring lots of rain and of course...Ike). Will it be the same about next week or so?

[Ivanhater]

I can respect that....but you need to respect some peoples passion for the tropics....some of us live for this time of year.....2 months out of the year I enjoy watching, tracking and informing. Its an exciting time for me and for others...

Amen

[ROCK]

I can respect that....but you need to respect some peoples passion for the tropics....some of us live for this time of year.....2 months out of the year I enjoy watching, tracking and informing. Its an exciting time for me and for others...

Amen

Ivan, I bet that 18z run perked you up a bit.....

[Ivanhater]

I can respect that....but you need to respect some peoples passion for the tropics....some of us live for this time of year.....2 months out of the year I enjoy watching, tracking and informing. Its an exciting time for me and for others...

Amen

Ivan, I bet that 18z run perked you up a bit.....

Lol, I'd be lying if I said it didn't. I have a feeling it will be an emotional roller coaster the next few days as the models swing

[cpdaman]

This system is pegged as having the highest chance of development of any system in the atlantic...and east pac...and west pac....by NOAA'sTropical Cyclone Formation Probability Guidance Product

not something you see every day for a system just to come off of africa...the 'buzz' on this system is not based just on a rogue 14-day GFS run...

Again, i can not stress this enough, we are only talking about a significant cyclone developing and moving west.....there is no way to pin point any possible landfalls.....but, if you think about it, a loose canon heading towards the west is reason enough to spark interest...and non-panic concern

cool chart .....very well said......those in the islands will be aware and spread awareness to others....as the days follow......this appears to have all the makings of a long tracking hurricane........lets cross our finges that el-nino can somehow throw a wrench into it

[cycloneye]

Low level convergence is increasing in the area.Aric,what new you see about this wave?