2010 ACE: Atlantic=159.8625 / EPAC=48.44 / WPAC=118.6700

[KWT]

Well looks like hyperactive is easily within range now...and the range of nearly all moderate-strong La Nina's in a warm phase Atlantic of 160-200 looks like a solid range.

[Ptarmigan]

When Shary and Tomas are done, it will push ACE into hyperactive. It is depending on what Tomas does.

[dwsqos2]

Yeah, trivial statement, but even if Tomas were to flatline around 65 knots for four days, hyperactivity would be achieved.

[cycloneye]

Atlantic Ace update at 0300z

Code: Select all

20L.Shary
Adv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
1 28 October 11 pm AST 35 0.1225
2 29 October 5 am AST 35 0.1225
3 29 October 11 am AST 35 0.1225
4 29 October 5 pm AST 55 0.3025
5 29 October 11 pm AST 60 0.3600
Total       1.03

[edit] 21L.Tomas
Adv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
1 29 October 5 pm AST 35 0.1225
2 29 October 8 pm AST 50 Special|
3 29 October 11 pm AST 55 0.3025
Total       0.425

[edit] Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Alex) Operational 6.7825
03L (Bonnie) Operational 0.3675
04L (Colin) Best track 1.8650
06L (Danielle) Operational 21.7950
07L (Earl) Operational 27.7750
08L (Fiona) Operational 2.9400
09L (Gaston) Operational 0.3675
10L (Hermine) Operational 1.2725
11L (Igor) Operational 42.445
12L (Julia) Operational 14.1825
13L (Karl) Operational 5.8000
14L (Lisa) Operational 3.6175
15L (Matthew) Operational 1.3750
16L (Nicole) Operational 0.1225
17L (Otto) Operational 4.6550
18L (Paula) Operational 6.5900
19L (Richard) Operational 4.5625
20L (Shary) Operational 1.0300
21L (Tomas) Operational 0.4250
Total  147.97


[Weatherfreak000]

^
And thus now, finally, FINALLY, we can stop debating whether or not this season is a dud. We should be blessed one of the most active seasons in recorded history may avoid U.S. Landfall. I mean you would THINK that would be the mentality at least


Either way i'm excited for the prospects of ACE this season....who knows where we go from here.

[KWT]

If Tomas does become quite a powerful hurricane then no reason why we can't get towards 170-180 units which is pretty much bang on the average of a higher end La Nina in a warm phase Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

Atlantic Ace update at 0900z

Code: Select all

20L.Shary
Adv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
1 28 October 11 pm AST 35 0.1225
2 29 October 5 am AST 35 0.1225
3 29 October 11 am AST 35 0.1225
4 29 October 5 pm AST 55 0.3025
5 29 October 11 pm AST 60 0.3600
6 30 October 5 am AST 65 0.4225
Total       1.4525

[edit] 21L.Tomas
Adv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
1 29 October 5 pm AST 35 0.1225
2 29 October 8 pm AST 50 Special
3 29 October 11 pm AST 55 0.3025
4 30 October 5 am AST 60 0.3600
Total       0.785

[edit] Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Alex) Operational 6.7825
03L (Bonnie) Operational 0.3675
04L (Colin) Best track 1.8650
06L (Danielle) Operational 21.7950
07L (Earl) Operational 27.7750
08L (Fiona) Operational 2.9400
09L (Gaston) Operational 0.3675
10L (Hermine) Operational 1.2725
11L (Igor) Operational 42.445
12L (Julia) Operational 14.1825
13L (Karl) Operational 5.8000
14L (Lisa) Operational 3.6175
15L (Matthew) Operational 1.3750
16L (Nicole) Operational 0.1225
17L (Otto) Operational 4.6550
18L (Paula) Operational 6.5900
19L (Richard) Operational 4.5625
20L (Shary) Operational 1.4525
21L (Tomas) Operational 0.785
Total  148.7525


[jinftl]

No doubt, Tomas is not forecast to be a short-lived storm like the recent ones. Tomas could realistically be adding ACE for the next week or more....this storm could be like a Hurricane Lenny, a November storm that added 20 ACE to the season total. We could easily pass 160 ACE for the season.

When Shary and Tomas are done, it will push ACE into hyperactive. It is depending on what Tomas does.

[cycloneye]

Atlantic Ace update at 1500z

Code: Select all

20L.Shary
Adv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
1 28 October 11 pm AST 35 0.1225
2 29 October 5 am AST 35 0.1225
3 29 October 11 am AST 35 0.1225
4 29 October 5 pm AST 55 0.3025
5 29 October 11 pm AST 60 0.3600
6 30 October 5 am AST 65 0.4225
7 30 October 11 am AST 65 0.4225
Total       1.875

[edit] 21L.Tomas
Adv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
1 29 October 5 pm AST 35 0.1225
2 29 October 8 pm AST 50 Special
3 29 October 11 pm AST 55 0.3025
4 30 October 5 am AST 60 0.3600
5 30 October 11 am AST 65 0.4225
Total       1.2075

[edit] Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Alex) Operational 6.7825
03L (Bonnie) Operational 0.3675
04L (Colin) Best track 1.8650
06L (Danielle) Operational 21.7950
07L (Earl) Operational 27.7750
08L (Fiona) Operational 2.9400
09L (Gaston) Operational 0.3675
10L (Hermine) Operational 1.2725
11L (Igor) Operational 42.445
12L (Julia) Operational 14.1825
13L (Karl) Operational 5.8000
14L (Lisa) Operational 3.6175
15L (Matthew) Operational 1.3750
16L (Nicole) Operational 0.1225
17L (Otto) Operational 4.6550
18L (Paula) Operational 6.5900
19L (Richard) Operational 4.5625
20L (Shary) Operational 1.8750
21L (Tomas) Operational 1.2075
Total  149.5975


[pepeavilenho]

This is the TOP

>100 A.C.E. units

Hurricanse season(by year)-A.C.E. units

Season 2005-248
Season 1950-243
Season 1995-248
Season 2004-225
Season 1961-205
Season 1955-199
Season 1998-182
Season 1999-177
Season 2003-175
Season 1964-170
Season 1996-166
Season 1969-158
Season 2010-150
Season 1980-147
Season 1966-145
Season 2008-145
Season 1951-137
Season 1989-135
Season 1967-122
Season 1958-121
Season 1963-118
Season 2000-116
Season 1954-113
Season 2001-106
Season 1953-104
Season 1988-103

[KWT]

1969 should be easily taken over, 1996 has a decent chance of going, anything above that is going to need the 12z ECM solution to have a real shot at getting above 170 units to get into the top 10...

[cycloneye]

Atlantic Ace update at 2100z

Code: Select all

20L.Shary
Adv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
1 28 October 11 pm AST 35 0.1225
2 29 October 5 am AST 35 0.1225
3 29 October 11 am AST 35 0.1225
4 29 October 5 pm AST 55 0.3025
5 29 October 11 pm AST 60 0.3600
6 30 October 5 am AST 65 0.4225
7 30 October 11 am AST 65 0.4225
8 30 October 5 pm AST 60 Post-trop
Total       1.875

[edit] 21L.Tomas
Adv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
1 29 October 5 pm AST 35 0.1225
2 29 October 8 pm AST 50 Special
3 29 October 11 pm AST 55 0.3025
4 30 October 5 am AST 60 0.3600
5 30 October 11 am AST 65 0.4225
6 30 October 5 pm AST 65 0.4225
Total       1.63

[edit] Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Alex) Operational 6.7825
03L (Bonnie) Operational 0.3675
04L (Colin) Best track 1.8650
06L (Danielle) Operational 21.7950
07L (Earl) Operational 27.7750
08L (Fiona) Operational 2.9400
09L (Gaston) Operational 0.3675
10L (Hermine) Operational 1.2725
11L (Igor) Operational 42.445
12L (Julia) Operational 14.1825
13L (Karl) Operational 5.8000
14L (Lisa) Operational 3.6175
15L (Matthew) Operational 1.3750
16L (Nicole) Operational 0.1225
17L (Otto) Operational 4.6550
18L (Paula) Operational 6.5900
19L (Richard) Operational 4.5625
20L (Shary) Operational 1.8750
21L (Tomas) Operational 1.6300
Total  150.02


[snowcane180]

Looks like we finally made it to a hyperactive season.

[Macrocane]

Looks like we finally made it to a hyperactive season.

Not yet but almost as hyperactive is 153 according to some sources.

[KWT]

Well the next target is 171, that would get us into the top 10 in the last 60 years...given Tomas thats looking possible now...

[cycloneye]

Atlantic ACE Update at 0900z

The 2010 Atlantic season has reached hyperactive status.

Code: Select all

21L.Tomas
Adv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
1 29 October 5 pm AST 35 0.1225
2 29 October 8 pm AST 50 Special
3 29 October 11 pm AST 55 0.3025
4 30 October 5 am AST 60 0.3600
5 30 October 11 am AST 65 0.4225
6 30 October 5 pm AST 65 0.4225
7 30 October 6 pm AST 80 Special
8 30 October 11 pm AST 80 0.6400
9 31 October 5 am AST 85 0.7225
Total       2.9925

[edit] Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Alex) Operational 6.7825
03L (Bonnie) Operational 0.3675
04L (Colin) Best track 1.8650
06L (Danielle) Operational 21.7950
07L (Earl) Operational 27.7750
08L (Fiona) Operational 2.9400
09L (Gaston) Operational 0.3675
10L (Hermine) Operational 1.2725
11L (Igor) Operational 42.445
12L (Julia) Operational 14.1825
13L (Karl) Operational 5.8000
14L (Lisa) Operational 3.6175
15L (Matthew) Operational 1.3750
16L (Nicole) Operational 0.1225
17L (Otto) Operational 4.6550
18L (Paula) Operational 6.5900
19L (Richard) Operational 4.5625
20L (Shary) Operational 1.8750
21L (Tomas) Operational 2.9925
Total  153.0125


[snowcane180]

Unbelievable a hyperactive season with no intense tropical storm or hurricanes making landfall in the U.s.A. I believe they said it was a 76 percent chance of a major striking the east coast. We should let our guards down yet because hurricane beta could be a surprise around christmas

[jinftl]

The 2003 season was another hyperactive one in terms of ACE....the season total was 175....and the strongest storm to make landfall in the U.S. was Hurricane Isabel as a Cat 2. I guess it is not unprecedented to have a hyperactive season without a major hurricane landfalling in the u.s.

Unbelievable a hyperactive season with no intense tropical storm or hurricanes making landfall in the U.s.A. I believe they said it was a 76 percent chance of a major striking the east coast. We should let our guards down yet because hurricane beta could be a surprise around christmas

[KWT]

Well we've made it to hyperactive, now offically a very active season in terms of ACE and numbers...

The true test though to me is getting this season into the top 10 busiest seasons in the last 60 years and that requires an ACE of 171...probably do able depending on exactly what Tomas does in the next week.

[cycloneye]

Atlantic ACE Update at 1500z

Code: Select all

21L.Tomas
Adv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
1 29 October 5 pm AST 35 0.1225
2 29 October 8 pm AST 50 Special
3 29 October 11 pm AST 55 0.3025
4 30 October 5 am AST 60 0.3600
5 30 October 11 am AST 65 0.4225
6 30 October 5 pm AST 65 0.4225
7 30 October 6 pm AST 80 Special
8 30 October 11 pm AST 80 0.6400
9 31 October 5 am AST 85 0.7225
10 31 October 11 am AST 80 0.6400
Total       3.6325

[edit] Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Alex) Operational 6.7825
03L (Bonnie) Operational 0.3675
04L (Colin) Best track 1.8650
06L (Danielle) Operational 21.7950
07L (Earl) Operational 27.7750
08L (Fiona) Operational 2.9400
09L (Gaston) Operational 0.3675
10L (Hermine) Operational 1.2725
11L (Igor) Operational 42.445
12L (Julia) Operational 14.1825
13L (Karl) Operational 5.8000
14L (Lisa) Operational 3.6175
15L (Matthew) Operational 1.3750
16L (Nicole) Operational 0.1225
17L (Otto) Operational 4.6550
18L (Paula) Operational 6.5900
19L (Richard) Operational 4.5625
20L (Shary) Operational 1.8750
21L (Tomas) Operational 3.6325
Total  152.0225