2014 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

I think that Invest 91C, the system immediately west of Genevieve, is the system that the GFS is picking up. 93C between Genevieve and Iselle is also making some model noise, I saw some runs in which it actually absorbs the post-Hawaii remnant low of Iselle as 93C rides the southern easterlies.

All of these crossover storms are making me think we should just merge the WPAC forum with the ATL/EPAC/CPAC forum.

Yeah very complexing

Recap:

939 mb typhoon southeast of Japan...Genevieve???

973 mb typhoon north of wake island...Julio???

[euro6208]

Based on the location of the MJO, the northwest Pacific Ocean would typically be under suppressed conditions; however, typhoon Halong (Jose) is active over the west Pacific and is tracking north, toward southern Japan. As evidenced by typhoon Halong (Jose), it is important to remember that cyclonic activity is still possible even when the broad scale MJO set up may discourage it. Sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific Ocean are in excess of 28 °C and large-scale tropical convergence is present across South East Asia and the central Pacific Ocean. While tropical cyclones can form over the northwest Pacific at any time, the typical tropical cyclone season runs from May through November with peak activity in August. Hence, the risk of tropical cyclone development across the Pacific Ocean remains heightened for the coming month regardless of the strength and location of the MJO.

Interesting discussion about how favorable the WPAC is despite dry MJO...Hate to think what happens when the next wet MJO (Late August) comes around with these conditions already set...

In just 1 month from July 1 to August, WPAC garnered one Cat 2, two cat 4, and one Category 5...

[euro6208]

https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

August 5 Update: Same numbers from the July update but lower in ACE by 7...

TSR continues to anticipate the 2014 Northwest Pacific typhoon season will be the most
active since 2004. TSR predicts activity will be about 10% above the
1965-2013 climate norm.

Forecast: 26 Named storms, 16 Typhoons, and 9 Major Typhoons...ACE- 328

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[euro6208]

Current tally as of August 06...

11 Named storms
6 typhoons
3 Major typhoons
-Two category 4
-One category 5


Comparing current tally and the TSR forecast, we will have 15 more named storms, 10 more typhoons and 6 more major typhoons... although no guarantee...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

We now have category 4 super typhoon Genevieve, forecast to intensify to 145 kts making it the strongest in terms of wind speeds to cross the IDL. Meanwhile Halong will maintain typhoon status till 3 days from now based on the JMA and JTWC forecasts.

[tolakram]

I think Genevieve should be charged a 25% development ACE tax and that ACE applied to the EPAC numbers.

[euro6208]

I think Genevieve should be charged a 25% development ACE tax and that ACE applied to the EPAC numbers.

[euro6208]

Moderate chance for development during week 2 in the far marshall islands...

[euro6208]

Latest runs from Euro and GFS showing nothing due to the dry MJO over the area.

Models showing a very dry environment this month but should moisten up by last week of August when the next wet phrase could arrive...but does show some very favorable low shear...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

My Early August Numbers:
29/18/14/9

29 Named
17 Typhoons
12 Major Typhoons
8 Super Typhoons

ACE 415

[somethingfunny]

Moderate chance for development during week 2 in the far marshall islands...

That's usually where all the dangerous typhoons for Guam and Northern Marianas come from isn't it? Even if that doesn't happen in two weeks I really think some serious threats are coming during this typhoon season for the Marianas region. It's more important that ever for you and the folks you know over there to already have a basic typhoon kit - bottles water, batteries, etc, in stock!

[euro6208]

Moderate chance for development during week 2 in the far marshall islands...

That's usually where all the dangerous typhoons for Guam and Northern Marianas come from isn't it? Even if that doesn't happen in two weeks I really think some serious threats are coming during this typhoon season for the Marianas region. It's more important that ever for you and the folks you know over there to already have a basic typhoon kit - bottles water, batteries, etc, in stock!

Yes looking more el ninoish although there's not even one...Storms that develop southeast of us and near the dateline poses the greatest threat even our NWS meteorologist kept reminding us that we should expect 3-4 more typhoons especially during the October,November, and December period...but still say anything can happen in August and September...

Our strongest typhoons and a record 5 typhoons in 1993 struck Guam developed around this area...

Every year has a direct impact on Guam and the CNMI from Multiple storms, weather unisys confirms that but too busy with work at the moment to dig up details lol...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

^^Typhoon Chataan would be one example of the storms that struck Guam during JJA. Can you describe Chataan? I guess unusual?

[euro6208]

^^Typhoon Chataan would be one example of the storms that struck Guam during JJA. Can you describe Chataan? I guess unusual?

Chataan was super exciting at the time but thankfully no damage. 85-90 knots winds pounded the island but wasn't unusual. Typhoons have struck Guam way earlier even in January...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

^^Typhoon Chataan would be one example of the storms that struck Guam during JJA. Can you describe Chataan? I guess unusual?

Chataan was super exciting at the time but thankfully no damage. 85-90 knots winds pounded the island but wasn't unusual. Typhoons have struck Guam way earlier even in January...

The 2002 season was an active and impressive one; I wish I had tracked it, although the technology was not as advanced especially in Meteorology. I was just about a year old then. I guess this would be mimicking that season and it is starting that burst of activity; and that the name lists from both PAGASA and WMO are more or less the same and this year is forecast to be active.

[euro6208]

Next 5 names on the list:

Fengshen Kalmaegi Fung-wong Kammuri Phanfone

[euro6208]

Very active so far...

Total ACE for 2013 was 271, 2014 already at 122.55 or almost half of that...We still have the rest of August, September, October, November, and December left... A devastating season yet again year after year...As they say in the Atlantic, It only takes one...BUT over here, one isn't enough according to mother nature...

Halong will be the 8th TC to make landfall so far...

[euro6208]

After that impressive outburst, things are slowing down. Climatogically, we are almost in the peak season for the WPAC and things should very very slowly slow down if at all during the next few months...

Next wet phrase of the MJO should be back in late August - early September...

[euro6208]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GENEVIEVE PART 2?


00z shows a strong tropical storm intensifying as it moves WNW and crosses the IDL. Should put many ACE units if this pans out. This year is about 4× as active as last year to date (August 12, 2013) and is expected to bring even more storms...