Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season

[Alyono]

Is it possible to have 4 or 5 Atlantic TC's in October?

yeah... happens frequently during active seasons. Not dead ones

[Sanibel]

Possible late bloomer. Central Atlantic.

[Ntxw]

It's going to take a while for something to organize in the Atlantic. Shear actually isn't that bad, but there is a clout of sinking air resulting in unfavorable atmospheric conditions at least for week 1 and early week 2 which then takes us to early October.



Courtesy WSI energy twitter

[gigabite]

I am expecting a shortened season maybe it''s over now. Next year should be above average in the Atlantic.

[Hurricaneman]

I am expecting a shortened season maybe it''s over now. Next year should be above average in the Atlantic.

I wouldn't be surprised if an October storm or maybe even a major formed in the Western Caribbean but that is the typical area to look in october

[Frank2]

Where's that Star Trek graphic (lol) - it looks pretty toasty out there, but you never know. We've had a pretty normal rainy season here in Florida, so at least that's been average, but it seems the El Nino pattern made the EPAC ultra-busy and the Atlantic side fairly quiet and probably means the season is about over, since shear only increases from late September onward...

[Sanibel]

The convection out there right now is just teasing convection that is too weak to form.

[ConvergenceZone]

Where's that Star Trek graphic (lol) - it looks pretty toasty out there, but you never know. We've had a pretty normal rainy season here in Florida, so at least that's been average, but it seems the El Nino pattern made the EPAC ultra-busy and the Atlantic side fairly quiet and probably means the season is about over, since shear only increases from late September onward...

I totally agree with you. While there's a small possibility of a stray storm sneaking in, we can almost put 2014 in the books. Sure there will be people that say, we still have October etc for more storms/canes to form, but I've also seen those previous years look much more active in terms of waves and conditions this time of year also.... With each day that passes, the chance of another storm decrease. I'm still wondering if we've ever had a year ever in the history of the tropics where we only make it to the "E" Storm....Anybody???? Heck, since the year is so boring we might as break a record if we can, LOL.....Although I wouldn't be surprised if we've had less then 4 storms at some point...

[Hurricaneman]

If the hurricane season should have had its last name this year it would be the fewest since 1983 and that is one of the top 5 fewest storms in the Atlantic hurricane seasons list but if I were to make a bet I do believe that there will be 1 or 2 more after October 10th

[Hurricaneman]

as a side note it seems that below normal 500mb humidity levels in the MDR happen about once a decade and in 3 year periods it seems and heres a list of examples

2012-current
2000-2002
1990-1994
1982-1984
1972-1973
1913-1915

and there may be others but it seems based on that on average there is the dry air and stability from the widening Hadley circulation every 7 to 10 years without fail and it usually last 3 years but as can be seen the 1990-1994 one is longer so the current pattern of low instability in the MDR could end as early as next year or it could last 2 to 3 more years knowing that 1990-1994 is on that list and wasn't an El Nino year the last year of that particular low instability period so thing may be looking up the next year or 2 for quality systems but then again this pattern could stick around and we have several more years of not much Cape Verde activity

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Ntxw]

Peak of tropical season 2014 in the Atlantic produced 2/1/1 (unless 96L does something). ACE stands at 16-17 points for the period which is well below normal. CSU (reference to verification in expert forecast thread) forecast for less than 70% or <19 pts was a good call. Edouard made up most of the energy produced.

[Frank2]

Current TWO - typical for the end of the season, when the easterlies break down and disturbances sit out there for days and days:

An elongated low pressure area located about 1100 miles east of
the Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are not conducive
for development and tropical cyclone formation is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[Hammy]

Where's that Star Trek graphic (lol) - it looks pretty toasty out there, but you never know. We've had a pretty normal rainy season here in Florida, so at least that's been average, but it seems the El Nino pattern made the EPAC ultra-busy and the Atlantic side fairly quiet and probably means the season is about over, since shear only increases from late September onward...

I totally agree with you. While there's a small possibility of a stray storm sneaking in, we can almost put 2014 in the books. Sure there will be people that say, we still have October etc for more storms/canes to form, but I've also seen those previous years look much more active in terms of waves and conditions this time of year also.... With each day that passes, the chance of another storm decrease. I'm still wondering if we've ever had a year ever in the history of the tropics where we only make it to the "E" Storm....Anybody???? Heck, since the year is so boring we might as break a record if we can, LOL.....Although I wouldn't be surprised if we've had less then 4 storms at some point...

1983 got to D
1982 got to E
1972 got to D (though there were also three subtropical storms)
1965 got to E
1962 got to E

Additionally, several years have been less active than this up to now and still produced more storms later:
1997 5/3/1
1994 5/1/0
1991 5/2/2
1987 5/2/1
1986 5/3/0
1977 4/4/1

This year is nothing at all out of the ordinary, if anything, as a few of the pro mets have pointed out that if anything, the lack of quiet periods within the latest active period has been almost unprecedented. Going back to 1960, there have been 11 seasons (1/5) that have had as many or less storms up to this point.

I'm not sure why some still see this year as somehow being the weakest season ever, despite the fact that many of the same people last year were 'tired of naked swirls' and saying they'd take a few strong storms over that, and then are complaining as just that has happened this year.

and 1914 ended with 1/0/0.

Current TWO - typical for the end of the season, when the easterlies break down and disturbances sit out there for days and days:

I remember a depression in 1999 with similar circumstances as this, where it pretty much sat there for four days, barely moving at all, before disspating.

[CrazyC83]

1914 isn't a good comparison, but we seemed to agree the analogs for this year were those slow years and 2014 would be one of the bottom-feeder years. Unlike 2013, this year has not surprised any of us.

I know it isn't *officially* an El Nino year yet, but with the EPAC hyperactive, it has sure felt like one.

[ConvergenceZone]

This year is nothing at all out of the ordinary, if anything, as a few of the pro mets have pointed out that if anything, the lack of quiet periods within the latest active period has been almost unprecedented. Going back to 1960, there have been 11 seasons (1/5) that have had as many or less storms up to this point.

I'm not sure why some still see this year as somehow being the weakest season ever, despite the fact that many of the same people last year were 'tired of naked swirls' and saying they'd take a few strong storms over that, and then are complaining as just that has happened this year.

and 1914 ended with 1/0/0.

Current TWO - typical for the end of the season, when the easterlies break down and disturbances sit out there for days and days:

I remember a depression in 1999 with similar circumstances as this, where it pretty much sat there for four days, barely moving at all, before disspating.

I respectfully disagree. Only on Letter E and going into October with nothing else in sight is out of the ordinary.........If the season ends on "E" then it will be EXTREMELY out of the ordinary.... Like someone mentioned here, you'll have to go back to the early 80s to find only 4 storms the entire season.....If it wasn't out of the ordinary, you wouldn't have to go back so far...

[Ptarmigan]

1914 isn't a good comparison, but we seemed to agree the analogs for this year were those slow years and 2014 would be one of the bottom-feeder years. Unlike 2013, this year has not surprised any of us.

I know it isn't *officially* an El Nino year yet, but with the EPAC hyperactive, it has sure felt like one.

1914 had no satellites and likely more storms formed without being detected. 1914 was El Nino mixed with cooler Atlantic phase.

as a side note it seems that below normal 500mb humidity levels in the MDR happen about once a decade and in 3 year periods it seems and heres a list of examples

2012-current
2000-2002
1990-1994
1982-1984
1972-1973
1913-1915

and there may be others but it seems based on that on average there is the dry air and stability from the widening Hadley circulation every 7 to 10 years without fail and it usually last 3 years but as can be seen the 1990-1994 one is longer so the current pattern of low instability in the MDR could end as early as next year or it could last 2 to 3 more years knowing that 1990-1994 is on that list and wasn't an El Nino year the last year of that particular low instability period so thing may be looking up the next year or 2 for quality systems but then again this pattern could stick around and we have several more years of not much Cape Verde activity

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Even 2000-2002 was more active than 2013 and 2014.

[Ntxw]

Not done yet, but statistically speaking 2013-2014 will likely join 1972/1973, 1982/1983, 1986/1987, 1993/1994 as the fifth back to back couplet of <80 ACE points or less than 40 points for each season between the two since 1950. Interestingly the weird factoid is that the other previous four back to backs have occurred during -AMO, so 2013/2014 seems odd here. So this is not something we're accustomed to during the +AMO but to be fair ACE count really has only been kept since the end of the last +AMO (1950s/60s) so we've only had three cycles. Small sample in the grand time scale. Two were warm and one was cold.

[Hammy]

This year is nothing at all out of the ordinary, if anything, as a few of the pro mets have pointed out that if anything, the lack of quiet periods within the latest active period has been almost unprecedented. Going back to 1960, there have been 11 seasons (1/5) that have had as many or less storms up to this point.

I'm not sure why some still see this year as somehow being the weakest season ever, despite the fact that many of the same people last year were 'tired of naked swirls' and saying they'd take a few strong storms over that, and then are complaining as just that has happened this year.

and 1914 ended with 1/0/0.

Current TWO - typical for the end of the season, when the easterlies break down and disturbances sit out there for days and days:

I remember a depression in 1999 with similar circumstances as this, where it pretty much sat there for four days, barely moving at all, before disspating.

I respectfully disagree. Only on Letter E and going into October with nothing else in sight is out of the ordinary.........If the season ends on "E" then it will be EXTREMELY out of the ordinary.... Like someone mentioned here, you'll have to go back to the early 80s to find only 4 storms the entire season.....If it wasn't out of the ordinary, you wouldn't have to go back so far...

We've had five storms, I don't know why four is being brought up. And the last time we went into October with only five storms was 1997.

[somethingfunny]

1997's a fairly good analog season for this one.

[ConvergenceZone]

We've had five storms, I don't know why four is being brought up. And the last time we went into October with only five storms was 1997.

Yea, you are right, "5". Sorry, I didn't know how to count last night, LOL. But even 5 is still FAR FAR FAR from being impressive...... And yes it is out of the ordinary, otherwise we wouldn't have to go back to 1997......