Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico: (Is Invest 95L)

[srainhoutx]

Buoy observations S of the Sabine River suggest a weak surface low may be attempting to develop along the stalled frontal boundary and trough axis that extends NE into Northern Florida. Some of the computer models have suggested this may occur, but no tropical development is expect at this time.

[wxman57]

I'm not seeing any weak low center out in the Gulf. I do see a trof axis extending west-east across the northern Gulf. Winds are SW south of the trof and NE to its north. Shear is quite high out there but should be diminishing tomorrow/Monday. If any squalls remain beyond today then there may be a chance of a low developing. However, both the Euro & GFS indicate building high pressure over the northern Gulf from late Sunday through Monday, which would suggest diminishing squalls.

[northjaxpro]

NWS Jax mets late morning discussion, as well as 12Z WPC/NHC surface analysis does indeed depict elongated Lows along a trough axis just ahead of a frontal boundary in the NE GOM one 1010mb Low south of Mobile Bay and and another 1011 mb wave south of Apalachicola near Apalachee Bay. This is just a strung out mess folks. I will point out that the convection near the Apalachee Bay Low Pressure wave is a bit more concentrated late this morning as there is pretty good activity on radar just off the coast of Cedar Key westward. However, shear is still present , so no immediate development expected in this area.

[northjaxpro]

[NCSTORMMAN]

Great looking blob but in my opinion nothing more. Not much spin and too much shear. It is also expected to lift north correct? Which means no time to develop.

[northjaxpro]

Actually, there is quite a pronounced spin just south of Apalachicola. There is even a bit of convection trying to show some semblance of wrapping into the Low circulation. Yeah, shear is still moderate for sure, but the forecast is calling for it to relax going late into the weekend. I am not anticipating development to occur this weekend. However, just monitor the area closely as still ssts in the Gulf are toasty, and any lightening of the shear could allow for this to spin-up. Also, steering flow is still weak, so this will meander with a drift possibly to the north or northeast in the short term.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Actually, there is quite a pronounced spin just south of Apalachicola. There is even a bit of convection trying to show some semblance of wrapping into the Low circulation. Yeah, shear is still moderate for sure, but the forecast is calling for it to relax going late into the weekend. I am not anticipating development to occur this weekend. However, just monitor the area closely as still ssts in the Gulf are toasty, and any lightening of the shear could allow for this to spin-up. Also, steering flow is still weak, so this will meander with a drift possibly to the north or northeast in the short term.

Since yesterday it seems as if shear has been increasing. What direction would a low that formed go after drifting northeast? It seems it would continue that route inland. The SSTs are toasty but remember they have been for the last week and several attempts of lows to form have been all for nothing thanks to shear. I agree with you I am not anticipating development and I would be shocked if something did. I do see a spin south of Apalachicola. However, shear will keep it in check most likely. Everything blowing up around that area is being sheared in the southern part extremely bad.

[Sanibel]

Persistent sheared trough.


In other seasons conditions suddenly became favorable right around this time.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Persistent sheared trough.


In other seasons conditions suddenly became favorable right around this time.

Well it does look to be trying to get its act together below where JaxPro was talking about. Problem is shear and it has barely let up so far. If it does let up anyone think this has a chance?

[northjaxpro]

If the shear relents some, it would have a small window to develop. However, shear is still 30 knots plus across the extreme NE GOM, in the vicinity of the Low south of Apalachicola. There is some slackening of the shear across the Northern GOM coast from SE TX east to the MS coast currently, in the 10-20 knot range. If that area of lighter shear can reach the NE GOM region this weekend, then the Low south of Apalachicola would have a fighting chance to develop.

[tropicwatch]

Northjax I am looking at the area sw of there.

[northjaxpro]

Well, WPC & NHC did analyze a Low pressure wave of 1010mb southeast of Mobile Bay at 12Z, which I posted that analysis on the previous page. There are two elongated surface low pressure waves along this trough axis, this one and the one nearby Apalachicola. I will point out that the surface wave you mentioned Panama to the southeast of Mobile Bay may be in a slightly improving shear environment as well, which I just touched on in the previous post.

[northjaxpro]

Again, not expecting development as we have seen wave of Low pressure after wave of Low pressure form in this NE GOM region all week long, only to get shredded by persistent northeasterly wind shear. That's just what Mother Nature has given us this season and that's fine with me in terms of not seeing tropical cyclone development.

But, I am ready for a pattern change as this pesky trough just won't budge. It is just draped across the Gulf northeastward to off the SE U.S. coast. Looks to remain in place for several more days, so more rain in store for much of the Florida peninsula. No more drought worries that's for for sure! Just hope the folks down state won't be needing canoes to get around though. Too much rain down across west central peninsula and now NWS WFO in Tallahassee and Ruskin has posted Flood Watches posted to my southwest down across the Lower Suwannee River basin to the Big Bend region through tonight

[NCSTORMMAN]

Again, not expecting development as we have seen wave of Low pressure after wave of Low pressure form in this NE GOM region all week long, only to get shredded by persistent northeasterly wind shear. That's just what Mother Nature has given us this season and that's fine with me in terms of not seeing tropical cyclone development.

But, I am ready for a pattern change as this pesky trough just won't budge. It is just draped across the Gulf northeastward to off the SE U.S. coast. Looks to remain in place for several more days, so more rain in store for much of the Florida peninsula. No more drought worries that's for for sure! Just hope the folks down state won't be needing canoes to get around though. Too much rain down across west central peninsula and now NWS WFO in Tallahassee and Ruskin has posted Flood Watches posted to my southwest down across the Lower Suwannee River basin to the Big Bend region through tonight

Last few frames I see a very strong twist to the south east of the place you pointed out JaxPro. It might be the best twist I have seen in the Gulf of Mexico this entire time. I am kind of hoping to see development so the stuff can lift out. Nothing major development wise of course but something to help move it along.

[tailgater]

The area about 60 miles due south of Gulf Shores has caught my interest today, that's the first time I've seen any of these little spins ( small Circulations) that have a decent inflow and the thunderstorm sort of beats back the shear for the time being.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[SEASON_CANCELED]

It needs to stop raining in St. Pete/Tampa/Pasco. We are really getting hammered. Tropical or not this is starting to look more and more like an event that will be historic in terms of flooding if rain comes down another 2 or 3 days.

Driving around in Drew Park & westchase seeing all the roads with rivers over them was worrying

[NCSTORMMAN]

The area about 60 miles due south of Gulf Shores has caught my interest today, that's the first time I've seen any of these little spins ( small Circulations) that have a decent inflow and the thunderstorm sort of beats back the shear for the time being.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

There is actually not much shear there last time I checked but I see that area and the area south east of where JaxPro pointed out. Both have a shot but only if shear completely leaves the area.

[northjaxpro]

The shear analysis map on the top of this page has just been updated and if you look carefully, the NW Gulf area from the TX coast east to the MS River Delta region is only showing 10 to 20 knots of shear currently. Shear is now in the 20-30 knot range now down over the area in the NE GOM region where the disturbed area are currently. So, shear is definitely subsiding some and seems to be trying to now ease off in the NE GOM.

[NCSTORMMAN]

The shear analysis map on the top of this page has just been updated and if you look carefully, the NW Gulf area from the TX coast east to the MS River Delta region is only showing 10 to 20 knots of shear currently. Shear is now in the 20-30 knot range now down over the area in the NE GOM region where the disturbed area are currently. So, shear is definitely subsiding some and seems to be trying to now ease off in the NE GOM.

The area you pointed out is no doubt turning up good now. Let us see if it keeps convection and keeps spinning. I think circulation is tightening. This will be good if it develops as a weak storm and moves out for Florida and other areas being drenched.

[northjaxpro]

Looking at the satellite and radar composites, and the analysis of the WPC/ NHC 18Z surface plot, the Low pressure wave is centered very near Apalachicola.