Gulf Coast Disturbance (early August)

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Cloudiness, showers and thunderstorms over the northeastern Gulf
of Mexico are associated with a broad area of low pressure near the
Florida panhandle. This system is forecast to move over land and
development is not expected.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Roth/Burke/Pasch

[tropicwatch]

Cross City, Fl is getting hammered with training rains.

[Stormcenter]

Wasn't this low pressure suppose to be already over land per past TWOs from over the weekend and if not where is it suppose to be moving over what land now? Sorry but some of these TWO's make me..........oh I rather not say.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Cloudiness, showers and thunderstorms over the northeastern Gulf
of Mexico are associated with a broad area of low pressure near the
Florida panhandle. This system is forecast to move over land and
development is not expected.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Roth/Burke/Pasch

[CrazyC83]

Could this be added as a TC in post-analysis?

[Blown Away]

Wish it would go away, tired of the rain!!!

[USTropics]

We've seen multiple vorticies move inland over the past 3 days (including a fully closed LLC that moved ashore Sunday evening near Horseshoe Beach). We've seen the MLC continue to be sheared and remain offshore, spitting out multiple vorticies (in fact several runs of the GFS and CMC has the main 850mb vorticity doing a semi-cyclonic loop and reemerging in the GOM). The models had forecast this to be a 7-10 day event as well.

[Kazmit]

Could this be added as a TC in post-analysis?

Possibly. The system looked quite good before moving over land.

[Hammy]

Could this be added as a TC in post-analysis?

Possibly. The system looked quite good before moving over land.

As far as I know, they won't add depressions post-season, so unlikely unless there were TS winds occurring.

[Steve]

Following up on USTropics' posts, if I've got the pattern sniffed, the new +/- vortex should probably move inland somewhere between Navarre and Ocean Springs and move due north until it gets caught in the flow back around to the broad area of low pressure. Then tomorrow or Thursday, another surface low should form just east of the Mouth of the MS River. I'm not sure if that moves inland again or if it slides farther west and then moves up. In any event, they've got Lake Pontchartrain rimmed with 5-10" tomorrow into Friday with some heavier amounts north of the lake heading into southern MS. 18z NAM is running now. I'm interested to see if it will deviate on the projected rainfall or not.

[psyclone]

another big slug of moderate to briefly heavy rain is quickly approaching the coast of west central florida. During the past couple of days we've gotten nice breaks during the late afternoon/evening but that doesn't look to be the case today. it's a sopping wet mess out there.

[tropicwatch]

another big slug of moderate to briefly heavy rain is quickly approaching the coast of west central florida. During the past couple of days we've gotten nice breaks during the late afternoon/evening but that doesn't look to be the case today. it's a sopping wet mess out there.

I know what you mean. Just went over 4 inches for the day since midnight.

[Stormcenter]

There is a center of something riding along the Florida peninsula coastline. IMO


http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... uration=12

[gatorcane]

Could you imagine if this low would have formed about 100 miles south? We might have seen nearly the entire Gulf covered in convection and almost definitely would have gotten a named system, maybe even a hurricane out of this.

For being on land, it sure looks pretty good.

[NDG]

Yeap, it has had a very good upper level environment during the past 48 hrs so with no problems with dry air.

[Stormcenter]

Let's see what the latest spin does as it exits the coast of the Florida panhandle.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... uration=12

[psyclone]

well luckily the rain approaching our area has fizzled. looking forward to a return to more normal weather. this has done a number to the water temps...we're down to about 84 from around 90 to the low 90's. we should rebound to 87 or 88 in a week or so.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Widespread cloudiness and thunderstorms over the northeastern Gulf
of Mexico are associated with a broad area of low pressure centered
near the coast of the western Florida panhandle. This system is
forecast to remain over land and development is not currently
expected. However, locally heavy rains are possible along portions
of the northern and northeastern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico
during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

Forecaster Beven

[Dean4Storms]

There is a lower level rotation south of PCB out over the water about 50 miles. This happens to coincide about where NHC has the low.....zoom and speed up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/h5-loop-vis.html

[Dean4Storms]

Also, anyone notice the appearance now of less shear and possibly a ridge aloft over the low?

[Nimbus]

The high is counter rotating the convection.
Tomorrow the low level circulation should be back out over the gulf as a broad shallow surface low. NHC seems to think it is too shallow to regenerate before it drifts back inland, probably near Lake Pontchartrain.