2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[STRiZZY]

Will be down in the Keys and Key West the week of June 11-15 - starting to get a bit concerned with statements saying there is a possibility of something brewing in the GOM or SW Carib. around that time frame. How reliable are these models and statements?

This far out, not very reliable. That doesn't mean nothing will happen, but historically 300+hrs out isn't the most reliable time frame for computer models.

[STRiZZY]

FWIW

GFS-00Z is showing a storm trekking from the Southern Caribbean, North through Cuba and into the SE US.

Time frame Hrs 312 - 384

[TheStormExpert]

Will be down in the Keys and Key West the week of June 11-15 - starting to get a bit concerned with statements saying there is a possibility of something brewing in the GOM or SW Carib. around that time frame. How reliable are these models and statements?

This far out, not very reliable. That doesn't mean nothing will happen, but historically 300+hrs out isn't the most reliable time frame for computer models.

The GFS sniffed out Alberto two weeks in advance despite originally showing it affecting the SE U.S. the week before Memorial Day so it can’t be totally discounted.

[TheStormExpert]

06z GFS starts development 300hrs. out off the Nicaragua/Honduras border and sends it NW into the Gulf of Mexico. I know this is 300+ hours out but it did well with Alberto, so let’s see how well it does with future Beryl.

[Dean4Storms]

The GEFS Ensembles are also on board with development in the Western Carib.

[chaser1]

I think the GFS is sniffing out the potential for what might be a general area where more favorable Atlantic conditions might reoccur. Add Climatology into the mix and I dont think its unreasonable to consider a 60% chance that something will attempt to form in this approx time frame.

[Dean4Storms]

I see the 12z continues with the development.

[MetroMike]

I see the 12z continues with the development.

Where is the GFS 18z? Should be out by now

It's out, but my source Tropical Tidbits has not updated for some reason.

[aperson]

I see the 12z continues with the development.

Where is the GFS 18z? Should be out by now

It's out, but my source Tropical Tidbits has not updated for some reason.

I think there may still be issues at the main data publisher for GFS. I know Ryan Maue tweeted that he updated weather.us to pull data from backup servers, and they have 18z charts: https://weather.us/model-charts/standar ... 0000z.html

[cycloneye]

From Levi Cowan:

One of my servers has lost access to the NCEP model server for some reason. I have ensured that the GFS and ECMWF will plot on a backup, but some model products will be missing until I can resolve this issue.

[GeneratorPower]

From Levi Cowan:

One of my servers has lost access to the NCEP model server for some reason. I have ensured that the GFS and ECMWF will plot on a backup, but some model products will be missing until I can resolve this issue.

Have you noticed the plethora of service outages recently? I.E., Goes 16 website goes down in the middle of tracking Alberto and stays off for days.

[chris_fit]

06Z GFS forms a low at 264 Hours and sends it North through Cuba and FL

[chris_fit]

Similar on the 12Z GFS - Same Timeframe

[ronjon]

12z GFS second western caribbean system of the year - way off in fantasy land but its been persistent the last several days of runs.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2018053112&fh=276

[N2FSU]

Not too far out in fantasy land:

[floridasun78]

we see other models get on boat with gfs

[LarryWx]

we see other models get on boat with gfs

Yes, florida, I think that's the best way to approach this, wait to see if other models join in when it gets within 10 days since the GFS has had a history of false alarms in the W Caribbean even when repeatedly showing a genesis for days. Keeping in mind that whereas the GFS eventually did ok with Alberto and even had some great runs (kudos to the GFS), it earlier (around May 10th) had most runs for several days spinning up a TS around 5/18-9 which subsequently hit FL as a cat 2 to borderline cat 3 H near 5/24. One could argue that those early runs were false alarms rather than having Alberto too early and too strong. Even the eternally bullish JB tweeted that he thinks these are GFS false alarms this time due to the MJO not being favorable.

[MGC]

GFS loves the Florida Panhandle....lets hope this is a ghost storm. Of course if the GFS goes 2 for 2 that will raise a lot of eyebrows......MGC

[cycloneye]

So far ECMWF doesn't have anything.

[SouthFloridawx]

I think that GFS doesn't have anything until hour 264, so it's understandable that the Euro wouldn't yet either.