Central Atlantic / Eastern Atlantic

[Meso]

The wave has lost a lot of it's convection over the past 12 or so hours it seems,It has some SAL and dry air to fight with too.The SAL is still pretty strong,but a bit weaker than yesterday

[KWT]

Yep convection has reduced over the last 12hrs but that is to be somewhat expected as it heads further west. Still doesn't look too bad though there is a lot of SAL to the north as well as dry air that would get embedded into any circulation that tries to get going, though right now it is just a wave feature.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 171034
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. A
WELL DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 8N. LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND 850 MB
VORTICITY SUPPORT THE POSITION OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY WITHIN 140 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 7N-11N. MOISTURE FROM THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST BY THE
COMPUTER MODELS TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES ON THU.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Except for the lack of showers/storms, on the IR2, it looks close to having a closed circulation. Maybe in a few days it'll get into a favorable area.


Or maybe not.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

They added the word "low" between 2 and 8 AM EDT.

[KWT]

Yep looking at the loops there does appear to be a circulation present now but there is a real lack of any convection with the only moderate area of deep convection being to the SW of the circulation. If this was August we would have a player right now I think.

[Frank2]

As Jeff Morrow (TWC) said this morning, there are very strong westerlies across the Gulf and Caribbean at this time, so, even with the minor ITCZ disturbances to the east of the islands, things are quiet as of now...

[tailgater]

It shows up well on Mimic.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t72hrs.gif
Sal and shear should keep this one in check.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... itEW5.html
http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif

[Meso]

An Amazing View Of The Tropical Wave

Awesome 3700x3700 image,great view of the wave..And even able to see the SAL.It's large,but worth it

[cycloneye]

Here is another image.

[curtadams]

Looks a little too weak to close off but fairly close. IMO should have been an invest. If convection hadn't fizzled last night it probably would be a TD.

Meso: Yow, that's a great pic! How often does it update?

[KWT]

Thats a great image there, you can really see the SAL and dust with that image, as you'd expect for the time of year really. Also notice the juicy convectibon over Africa around 10N.

Convection is still trying to form on that southern side I notice as well, if this were later in the season as I said before this would have been a player.

[Vortex]

Meso,

Very nice. Look forward to using that image during the cape verde season!

[Sanibel]

Makes you wonder if this is a precursor to the season.

[Frank2]

A large area of dust and strato-cu can be seen just northwest of the wave, so, anything that might form is about to get pretty dry...

[cycloneye]

A neat closeup of the wave with the well defined circulation.

[rahan]

Makes you wonder if this is a precursor to the season.

Yeah it could very well be. I'm just wondering when the light switch will be flipped?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 15-20
KT. WAVE EXHIBITS AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD SIGNATURE WITH A WELL
DEFINED LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG THE WAVE NEAR
7N. LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND 850 MB VORTICITY
SUPPORT THE POSITION OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS MAINLY WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
7N-10N.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Its an interesting wave in that it has a good looking low level circulation. If it had more widespread convection I'd bet the system would have been declared an invest by now.
Could well be a precursor to the season to come, lets hope they all recurve!