Long Range Models

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Mecklenburg

Re: Long Range Models=00z GFS is Rolling in

#421 Postby Mecklenburg » Sat Aug 09, 2008 10:46 pm



is that the 3rd wave developing a closed low at 36 hrs?
Last edited by Mecklenburg on Sat Aug 09, 2008 10:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Long Range Models=00z GFS is Rolling in

#422 Postby canetracker » Sat Aug 09, 2008 10:47 pm

sure looks that way
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Re: Long Range Models=00z GFS is Rolling in

#423 Postby canetracker » Sat Aug 09, 2008 10:51 pm

Last edited by canetracker on Sat Aug 09, 2008 10:56 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#424 Postby GeneratorPower » Sat Aug 09, 2008 10:51 pm

Wow, at 54hrs it has three (3) separate closed lows!!
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#425 Postby GeneratorPower » Sat Aug 09, 2008 10:53 pm

Let me tell you something. If you actually get 3 closed lows, the steering patterns are likely to be similar for all three. Could get the same areas raked again and again.
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Mecklenburg

Re:

#426 Postby Mecklenburg » Sat Aug 09, 2008 10:57 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:Let me tell you something. If you actually get 3 closed lows, the steering patterns are likely to be similar for all three. Could get the same areas raked again and again.


but you know, if a storm will follow a track of a previous storm, it would surely be vulnerable to the cold wake left by the first system... so the waters traversed by the 2nd storm will be much more cooler because it was used up by the first system
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Mecklenburg

Re: Long Range Models=00z GFS is Rolling in

#427 Postby Mecklenburg » Sat Aug 09, 2008 10:59 pm



it appears that the low on the 2nd wave has vanished in 72 hrs... also there appaears to be a low of the coast of costa ric...
Last edited by Mecklenburg on Sat Aug 09, 2008 11:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Long Range Models=00z GFS is Rolling in

#428 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 09, 2008 11:02 pm



Seems pretty obvious the low around 30W has the best chance to develop, IMHO.
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Re: Long Range Models=00z GFS is Rolling in

#429 Postby canetracker » Sat Aug 09, 2008 11:02 pm

Last edited by canetracker on Sat Aug 09, 2008 11:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Long Range Models=00z GFS is Rolling in

#430 Postby vacanechaser » Sat Aug 09, 2008 11:07 pm

wow... look at the ridge


Image




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
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#431 Postby GeneratorPower » Sat Aug 09, 2008 11:09 pm

vacane, thanks for pointing that out. Wow. Monster ridge. Uh-oh.
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Re: Long Range Models=00z GFS is Rolling in

#432 Postby canetracker » Sat Aug 09, 2008 11:10 pm

Vacanechaser: Although this run is not looking as impressive as last night, it is the set up of the ridging that is noteworthy.
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Re: Long Range Models=00z GFS is Rolling in

#433 Postby canetracker » Sat Aug 09, 2008 11:15 pm

canetracker wrote:GFS @ 12 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_012l.gif
GFS @ 24 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_024l.gif
GFS @ 36 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_036l.gif
GFS @ 54 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_054l.gif
GFS @ 72 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_072l.gif
GFS @ 84 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_084l.gif wave moving west
GFS @ 96 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_096l.gif
GFS @ 108 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_108l.gifstill tracking west and the 500 mb supports its track http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_108l.gif
GFS @ 144 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_144l.gif
GFS 500 mb @ 144 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_144l.gifapproaching the antilles
Last edited by canetracker on Sat Aug 09, 2008 11:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Long Range Models=00z GFS is Rolling in

#434 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 09, 2008 11:16 pm

vacanechaser wrote:wow... look at the ridge
Image
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team


Regardless of where the low goes, one thing has been consistent run after run is a strong ridge. This could get interesting because once this low gets near the Islands, @8/19, that's when that ridge starts to build W.
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#435 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sat Aug 09, 2008 11:25 pm

The ridge is holding.... :eek:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _144.shtml
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Re: Long Range Models=00z GFS is Rolling in

#436 Postby canetracker » Sat Aug 09, 2008 11:27 pm

canetracker wrote:http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_012l.gif
GFS @ 24 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_024l.gif
GFS @ 36 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_036l.gif
GFS @ 54 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_054l.gif
GFS @ 72 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_072l.gif
GFS @ 84 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_084l.gif wave moving west
GFS @ 96 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_096l.gif
GFS @ 108 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_108l.gifstill tracking west and the 500 mb supports its track http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_108l.gif
GFS @ 144 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_144l.gif
GFS 500 mb @ 144 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_144l.gifapproaching the antilles
GFS @ 156 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_156l.gif
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Derek Ortt

#437 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Aug 09, 2008 11:29 pm

basically shows a hurricane for the Caribbean, as well as develops the one behind
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Re: Long Range Models=00z GFS is Rolling in

#438 Postby canetracker » Sat Aug 09, 2008 11:30 pm

Image What a ridge! The Caribbean should be mindful.
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Re: Long Range Models=00z GFS is Rolling in

#439 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 09, 2008 11:30 pm

Oh boy,988 mbs in my backyard.
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Re: Long Range Models=00z GFS is Rolling in

#440 Postby Vortex » Sat Aug 09, 2008 11:31 pm

Very impressive run thus far.. :eek:
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