Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

[caneseddy]

144 hours....Shredded by Hispaniola



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What's that system I see east of the Antilles on that run?

The Euro has been on that one since yesterday...JB mentioned it in his tweet yesterday saying that this system off of Africa depicted by the Euro would be the strongest system coming off of Africa since Donna in 1960 if the Euro verifies

[Ivanhater]

192 hours...weak low in the Western Caribbean. The more important thing is the pattern. It would continue into Florida if this run developed it.



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[Stormcenter]

Actually I'm just playing along Portastorm.

[caneseddy]

12z UKMET still has it entering the Caribbean, close to GFS run

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal120.gif

[Ivanhater]

What a pattern change....



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[cycloneye]

Wow Michael,look at all those H's.

[jlauderdal]

I'll go out on a limb here and say that "if" this does develop it's not a central GOM event. JMHO

i say the "center" passes at least 150 miles to the S of Fort Lauderdale

Based On what madel, i live in LADY DALE

based on the ridge overhead, there has to be a center though, system might not develop or it gets killed off over hispanola

[wxman57]

European doesn't indicate much development, but it does break down the ridge over TX by day 10 and build the ridge north of the Caribbean westward over Florida. That could open up the central Gulf coast for a possible impact.

[Kohlecane]

144 hours....Shredded by Hispaniola

http://img811.imageshack.us/img811/2360/12zeurotropical850mbvorn.gif

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What's that system I see east of the Antilles on that run?

Ha i just spotted that Holy Hell

[Ivanhater]

The pattern advertised on the Euro is very worrisome for the central Gulf coast

[weatherguy2]

FWIW look at the new 12z FIMY model:

[BigB0882]

That latest run opens up Louisiana BIG TIME. Not liking that, at all.

[Stormcenter]

Should we all just evacuate the entire GOM coastline now?

I'm just kidding of course but patterns do change folks so I wouldn't
get so worked up just yet. IMO

Haven't the models been predicting this eventual "pattern change"
throughout this Summer. I'm just saying.

[Kory]

That latest run opens up Louisiana BIG TIME. Not liking that, at all.

Yep, very ominous pattern shown by the Euro. I have split thoughts on this future pattern set up. The pattern has been dominant protecting the western and central Gulf coast for months now, but the pattern eventually will break and give Texas a respite. Just gotta watch and see....

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[micktooth]

OK Guys, all of these model "monsters", so when is this going to develop? If it will indeed "bomb", when do you all think the process will start?

[BigB0882]

Should we all just evacuate the entire GOM coastline now?

I'm just kidding of course but patterns do change folks so I wouldn't
get so worked up just yet. IMO

No one is worried or worked up. We are just enjoying our hobby which is model watching. You seem to post the same thing over and over. I'm not sure you would think anything was worth posting until the gale force winds are on your front porch.

[northjaxpro]

So, it appears the ECMWF runs 10 days out are finally breaking down the long persistant death ridge over Texas. Well, I tell you that ridge has been parked over the Southern Plains and Texas it seems like forever. You have to figure at some point that ridge will finally loosen its grip eventually.

If the Euro pans out right with regards of weakening that death ridge, then the Gulf Coast could get in the mix IF this system develops during the coming days. We have a long time to watch this. Also, let's see how the other dynamical model runs handle the death ridge as time progresses.

[Aric Dunn]

192 hours...weak low in the Western Caribbean. The more important thing is the pattern. It would continue into Florida if this run developed it.



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exactly. the pattern has not changed and continues the consistency

[SoupBone]

Should we all just evacuate the entire GOM coastline now?

I'm just kidding of course but patterns do change folks so I wouldn't
get so worked up just yet. IMO

Haven't the models been predicting this eventual "pattern change"
throughout this Summer. I'm just saying.

Yes, which is why I keep asking what has changed that would force a stubborn and dominanat high from texas/Louisiana.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TAFB 72 hrs Surface Forecast