2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

[ninel conde]

i think someone posted a euro map showing how pressures would be way above normal in the tropics this season. so far, it looks correct to me. is instability still well below normal?

[ninel conde]

the old joe bastardi is back. talking about a hyper active july.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1h

@RyanMaue ECMWFMJO says we may have hyper July as it rolls back toward 2, then 3, the hyper development phases

so far 1 weak storm that fell apart isnt a hyper active july with nothing else on the horizon.

[tolakram]

the old joe bastardi is back. talking about a hyper active july.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1h

@RyanMaue ECMWFMJO says we may have hyper July as it rolls back toward 2, then 3, the hyper development phases

so far 1 weak storm that fell apart isnt a hyper active july with nothing else on the horizon.

That's the issue. There is no reliable tool to tell us what is on the horizon for more than a few days. So we wait and watch.

[tropicwatch]

You have to admit that Bastardi can be entertaining at times.

[cycloneye]

Is interesting that the models want to have the wet MJO returning to octan 1.

[Ntxw]

Currently the MJO has weakened. There are areas of enhanced convection in the IO but it is not what it was last week. The MJO is becoming lesser of a tool at the moment due to it's weak nature and any development across the globe likely will be rogue and based on local conditions rather than a large scale area of lift provided by the MJO/Kelvin wave.

Personally I think the second half of August will feature a new MJO pulse of better magnitude. Simply due to the timing it takes for such events to travel and climo. This coincides with the climatological rise of the Atlantic activity. We'll have to see when a new wave decides to get going in the IO or maritime <- they usually always start in these regions- continent and start to move.

[weatherwindow]

the old joe bastardi is back. talking about a hyper active july.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1h

@RyanMaue ECMWFMJO says we may have hyper July as it rolls back toward 2, then 3, the hyper development phases

so far 1 weak storm that fell apart isnt a hyper active july with nothing else on the horizon.

That's the issue. There is no reliable tool to tell us what is on the horizon for more than a few days. So we wait and watch.

Even the unreliable tools ie the ultra range model, CFSvs2 doesnt develop anything significant during the period 7/27-8/24. Yes, we wait...Greetings from KW, Rich

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/ ... RES=0&WMO=

[ninel conde]

nothing till at least aug 24?

[Hurricaneman]

The MJO is heading back to phase 1 on the GFS before the end of the month, if I were a betting man it probably will wait until the first week of August and the 2nd week of August is going to be the time that thing go completely crazy in the atlantic

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[TheStormExpert]

The big question that I am interested in knowing living here in S. FL is what the overall pattern will be come August/September. Will the Bermuda High continue to be strong and cause the majority of the developing Cape Verde systems to hit the U.S. especially Souteast? Or, will we see a big pattern change to more troughiness across the Northeast a lot like the past 3 seasons? Too soon I know to know which one will win, but it seems everyone is keeping a close eye on this and since some people are using 2004 as an analog year makes me more interested.

[ninel conde]

The big question that I am interested in knowing living here in S. FL is what the overall pattern will be come August/September. Will the Bermuda High continue to be strong and cause the majority of the developing Cape Verde systems to hit the U.S. especially Souteast? Or, will we see a big pattern change to more troughiness across the Northeast a lot like the past 3 seasons? Too soon I know to know which one will win, but it seems everyone is keeping a close eye on this and since some people are using 2004 as an analog year makes me more interested.

2004 might be overdone. in the last few days joe bastardi is saying the worst of the heat is over for the northeast after next week and wxrisk is saying we will have stronger cold fronts in aug/sept that will sweep off the coast and not stall out. if they are right we may be looking at a repeat of the last 3 years. very possible we will escape any cane landfalls. of course, that IS NOT an official NHC forecast.

[weatherwindow]

nothing till at least aug 24?

First, notice that the CFS run begins on 7/27. Thus it says nothing about the remainder of July from 7/13 thru 7/26. Secondly and most importantly, long and ultralonge range models are inherently inaccurate and are really only of value in discerning trends. Any modelling over seven days out is of no forecast value. So, the answer to your question is we have to wait and see and focus on the model periods out to 144 hours. The link in the earlier post opens a one-stop UK global model site including the ECMWF...Greetings from KW, Rich

[ninel conde]

nothing till at least aug 24?

First, notice that the CFS run begins on 7/27. Thus it says nothing about the remainder of July from 7/13 thru 7/26. Secondly and most importantly, long and ultralonge range models are inherently inaccurate and are really only of value in discerning trends. Any modelling over seven days out is of no forecast value. So, the answer to your question is we have to wait and see and focus on the model periods out to 144 hours. The link in the earlier post opens a one-stop UK global model site including the ECMWF...Greetings from KW, Rich

That makes sense but models show nothing till 7/27. Bastardi in his preseason forecast was saying how this was going to be like 96/99/2004/2005 and now he is saying a trough will be back in the northeast after next week, just like last year and wxrisk is saying strong cold fronts will be sweeping off the coast in aug/sept, again like last year. Maybe the best analog to this season was 2012.

[cycloneye]

Levi Cowan tweeted about what to expect in the next few weeks and what he says I agree 100% with.

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 13m
For rest of July, tropics likely quiet except for strong E Atl. waves. So far been more active July than usual. Season really starts in Aug.

https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits

[cycloneye]

The vertical instability is slowly rising in MDR.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

[cycloneye]

Video by Levi Cowan about what to expect on the rest of July.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... t-of-july/

[weatherwindow]

nothing till at least aug 24?

First, notice that the CFS run begins on 7/27. Thus it says nothing about the remainder of July from 7/13 thru 7/26. Secondly and most importantly, long and ultralonge range models are inherently inaccurate and are really only of value in discerning trends. Any modelling over seven days out is of no forecast value. So, the answer to your question is we have to wait and see and focus on the model periods out to 144 hours. The link in the earlier post opens a one-stop UK global model site including the ECMWF...Greetings from KW, Rich

That makes sense but models show nothing till 7/27. Bastardi in his preseason forecast was saying how this was going to be like 96/99/2004/2005 and now he is saying a trough will be back in the northeast after next week, just like last year and wxrisk is saying strong cold fronts will be sweeping off the coast in aug/sept, again like last year. Maybe the best analog to this season was 2012.

If I can glean anything from the CFS run I quoted above...the trend remains that of fairly persistent ridging over the western North Atlantic and the southeast coast thru 8/24..of course there are occasional episodes of fairly shallow trofiness impinging on the mid-Atlantic coast but the trend is certainly toward persistent ridging...Greetings from KW, Rich

[Bocadude85]

nothing till at least aug 24?

First, notice that the CFS run begins on 7/27. Thus it says nothing about the remainder of July from 7/13 thru 7/26. Secondly and most importantly, long and ultralonge range models are inherently inaccurate and are really only of value in discerning trends. Any modelling over seven days out is of no forecast value. So, the answer to your question is we have to wait and see and focus on the model periods out to 144 hours. The link in the earlier post opens a one-stop UK global model site including the ECMWF...Greetings from KW, Rich

That makes sense but models show nothing till 7/27. Bastardi in his preseason forecast was saying how this was going to be like 96/99/2004/2005 and now he is saying a trough will be back in the northeast after next week, just like last year and wxrisk is saying strong cold fronts will be sweeping off the coast in aug/sept, again like last year. Maybe the best analog to this season was 2012.

How in the world would wxrisk know that strong cold fronts will be sweeping off the east coast in August and September?? The 2004 hurricane season had a strong front sweep through the gulf in August, that front is what steered hurricane Charley into the Florida west coast, then a month later high pressure took control and steered Frances and Jeanne into the Florida east coast. No one will know what the pattern will be like in August or September until were are in August and September. If I had to guess I would bet on periods of strong ridging during those months like what we have seen the past few months. Even if the pattern does change remember all it takes is a hurricane to be in the wrong place at the right time and boom you have a landfalling system. So sit back and buckle up for what will probably be a long season.

[cycloneye]

Hey folks,the July MSLP update from ECMWF is out and shows normal pressures in MDR but higher ones in GOM and Western Atlantic. Remember that this model sees El Nino developing and that may be why it has this bias towards higher pressures. As we know by all the information that is being posted at the ENSO Updates thread,there are no signs of El Nino coming anytime soon.

[weatherwindow]

[quote="cycloneye"]Hey folks,the July MSLP update from ECMWF is out and shows normal pressures in MDR but higher ones in GOM and Western Atlantic. Remember that this model sees El Nino developing and that may be why it has this bias towards higher pressures.

[/quotehe

Good evening, Luis...I didnt realize the Euro was still hanging onto an El Nino..Im surprised...Just guessing but I will bet that the August update will return to reality and a neutral position...Rich