Gulf Coast Disturbance (early August)

[CrazyC83]

Strangely enough, no rain for me today...a band dissipated as it reached my area, only to reintensify a few miles to the west (it's now SVR-warned).

[tropicwatch]

Was without power for about an hour and ended up with about 7.5 inches of rain for Tuesday.

[drezee]

Seems to be a surface low S of Mobile...buoys have E and SE winds with nw and sw winds farther out

http://coolwx.com/buoydata/regions/gulfplot.php

[TheStormExpert]

Emerged into the northern Gulf.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure has emerged over the extreme northern Gulf of Mexico just south of Mobile, Alabama. This disturbance continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms over much of the north-central and northeastern portions of the Gulf of Mexico and adjacent land areas. This system
is forecast to remain close to land and little or no development is expected due to unfavorable upper-level winds. However, locally heavy rainfall will be possible along portions of the northern and northeastern coastal areas of the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Dean4Storms]

No its not.....I have a pressure on my brand new Davis Vantage Pro here at my house in Miramar Bch. between Destin and PCB of 29.93" and Destin Airport is at 29.92"

If you check the pressures west of here and the buoys offshore Mobile they are all between 29.97" and 29.99"

I don't get their location of a surface low.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/763355953571827712

[Dean4Storms]

I think it is a tad further East between Gulf Shores and Ft. Walton Bch. but whatever, won't make a bit of difference in reality.

[drezee]

Winds are due S at Gulf Shores....

[drezee]

29.89 low passed near Dauphin Island

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=dpia1

[Dean4Storms]

Per JB...
Vissco Knoll 786 in N gulf has had wind gusts close to 45 mph out of wsw at 480 feet above surface

[Steve]

As per yesterday's post, the pattern was indeed sniffed out with low pressure appearing/reforming/moving to due east of the Mouth of the River today. Models through 84 hours (but really more like 48) are:

NAM 12Z - 5-10" in South Mississippi, Northshore of Lake Pontchartrain (St. Tammany/Washington Parishes) and up near Natchez.

GFS 06Z - 5-10" in extreme South Mississippi, inland in the lower MS Valley, Lake Pontchartrain and offshore Louisiana

Hopefully timing has it where the worst moves through during d-min so that we don't get a bunch of street flooding here or river flooding up there. Panama City still taking a shot or two.

[Stormcenter]

Is that another spin south of the Fl. panhandle?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/h5-loop-vis.html

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located just southwest of Mobile,
Alabama, continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and
disorganized thunderstorms over much of the north-central and
northeastern Gulf of Mexico and adjacent land areas. This system is
forecast to move west-northwestward to northwestward and move inland
by Thursday, with little or no development expected due to
unfavorable upper-level winds and its proximity to land. However,
locally heavy rainfall are possible along portions of the northern
and northeastern coastal areas of the Gulf of Mexico during the next
few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

Forecaster Stewart

[OuterBanker]

Score another coup for the European. Darn if it isn't following their model to a tee. Euro also predicted the heavy rain in Fla.

[Steve]

Score another coup for the European. Darn if it isn't following their model to a tee. Euro also predicted the heavy rain in Fla.

NAM destroyed it in recent days. That's not saying much, but still.

[tailgater]

As others have said, we are lucky this set wasn't a couple hundred miles offshore. Some decent winds south of Mobile. Check out cute little rotating T-storm just south of Biloxi

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=LIX&loop=yes

Conditions at 42040 as of
(3:20 pm CDT)
2020 GMT on 08/10/2016:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone: Select
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): WSW ( 240 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 29.1 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.95 in
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.3 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 86.0 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 78.1 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 89.4 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 27.2 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 29.1 kts

[Frank P]

Well, thus far rain totals on the beach in west Biloxi have not been very impressive to date..... keep waiting for the deluge but nothing significant yet... no winds, little rain, lots of clouds, would have been a very different story if this system had been another 100 miles or so off the coast... tropics pretty quite right now, but the last two weeks of Aug and the entire month of September is our prime game time... thus far the season IMO has been pretty much as expected... lets see what the next 6 to 7 weeks brings... a side note, I open a can of paint and it rains for a month or so.. pffffffttt..

[Steve]

Getting our first action today. Tv met had 4.22/hour rain rate. It's not that heavy here, but it's definitely tropical and a little breezy. Photos and updates later if warranted.

[KimmieLa]

Rainy here in BTR at the moment. A little thunder. But, it has been hit or miss all afternoon. If it stays like this, I will be one happy cajun.

[Agua]

Tropical humidity cranked up to 11 in Biloxi. Been raining steady since maybe 4.00, but not torrential and no wind, no thunderstorms.