2020 EPAC Season

[aspen]

If this strong hurricane happens in long range,it would get a ton of ACE as it crosses to CPAC.

https://i.imgur.com/ehcCSEl.gif

https://i.imgur.com/CmjQZSz.gif

One can dream...

It’ll probably vanish next run

[cycloneye]

If this strong hurricane happens in long range,it would get a ton of ACE as it crosses to CPAC.

https://i.imgur.com/ehcCSEl.gif

https://i.imgur.com/CmjQZSz.gif

One can dream...

It’ll probably vanish next run

Yeah. I will believe it when I see it form and intensify to a bonifide hurricane and not be another wimpy cyclone.

[Siker]

That hurricane is sparked by the TW currently exiting Africa.

[cycloneye]

That hurricane is sparked by the TW currently exiting Africa.

TWD discussion.

A tropical wave is over western Africa, with axis near 11W, as
observed on long-term satellite imagery. Latest and current
satellite imagery shows increasing deep convection of the
scattered moderate to strong type from 10N to 14N between 11W
and 15W. It is moving westward near 15 kt. Convection ahead of
it is expected to increase along and offshore the coast of
Africa prior to its axis moving offshore that coast.

[aspen]

If this strong hurricane happens in long range,it would get a ton of ACE as it crosses to CPAC.

https://i.imgur.com/ehcCSEl.gif

https://i.imgur.com/CmjQZSz.gif

One can dream...

It’ll probably vanish next run

Yeah. I will believe it when I see it form and intensify to a bonifide hurricane and not be another wimpy cyclone.

At least the system that comes before it has a better shot. The GFS, Euro, and ICON all have a consensus of a weak system first coming together between 96-144 hours near 11-12N/95-98W, and tracking WNW/NW as it intensifies into a hurricane. 3-model agreement plus a decently close time frame is a promising sign for it being legit. The CFC also shows the associated vorticity, but develops the storm on a different path that tracks it NE into Mexico.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro also has that big one that GFS is showing.

[Kingarabian]

I want to get excited but I now know better.

[hurricanes1234]

I want to get excited but I now know better.

Accurate.

[TheStormExpert]

I want to get excited but I now know better.

Well the Euro just got an upgrade so it is the ultimate test!

[cycloneye]

18z GFS repeats with the strong hurricane.

[Kingarabian]

Looks good. Nice long tracking ghost until proven otherwise. Less ridging on this run makes it lift north quicker, so ACE potential on this run is limited compared to the 12z GFS.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jul 2 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual
development of this system is possible through early next
week while it moves west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec over the weekend. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for some gradual development of the
system early next week while it moves west-northwestward
well south of the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Brown

[Chris90]

I predicted we'd have a hurricane by July 1st, so that aged badly.....
Last year took forever before storms started forming but at least we had the first two do something decent, especially Barbara, she was an absolute beauty.
I'm not going to get my hopes up about this model storm until the very last minute. I want to see a very healthy looking invest in this basin for a start.
I think the EPAC is going to have to do something this month if it wants to put anything significant on the board, I'm still thinking the Atlantic is going to take off running earlier than usual (as in earlier than the August 20th bell ringing with some real MDR action) and at a faster pace.
I'm thinking the EPAC will manage 2 majors at most this year.

[aspen]

The GFS, Euro, CMC, NAVGEM, and ICON all develop the 0/20 disturbance to some extent. NAVGEM and CMC keep it weak, and the CMC is the only model that does not take the storm on a WNW path, through the highest SSTs in the basin right now. While the GFS and Euro develop this later (closer to 144 hours), the NAVGEM and ICON try to develop it in the range of 96-120 hours.

[Ubuntwo]

[TheStormExpert]

Nice try GFS!

 https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1278885458349420544

[Ubuntwo]

Latest GFS is far more bearish on the two AOIs. The first doesn't even become a tropical storm, and the second is far less intense than in past runs - can't reach hurricane strength.

0z Euro backs off immensely as well.

[Kingarabian]

Latest GFS is far more bearish on the two AOIs. The first doesn't even become a tropical storm, and the second is far less intense than in past runs - can't reach hurricane strength.

0z Euro backs off immensely as well.

It's pretty commical.... and predictable.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jul 3 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms continue in
association with a broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Some gradual development
of this system is possible through early next week while it moves
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast of
southern Mexico in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development of the system
during the early and middle portions of next week while it moves
west-northwestward, well south of the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[aspen]

Latest GFS is far more bearish on the two AOIs. The first doesn't even become a tropical storm, and the second is far less intense than in past runs - can't reach hurricane strength.

0z Euro backs off immensely as well.

It's pretty commical.... and predictable.

06z GFS is back to showing a hurricane from the 0/40 disturbance and development on Wednesday.