Low Pressure in the Central Atlantic (Is Invest 91L)

[NDG]

What is up with ASCAT, been showing missing information in this area since at least last night.
Too bad because it passed right over the suspected closed circulation.

[NDG]

ICON doing its thing as usual.

[SFLcane]

ICON doing its thing as usual.

https://i.imgur.com/eNJJZgA.png

Ridge overhead heading quickly westward.

[Category5Kaiju]

How reliable of a model is the ICON? It's been quite persistent and bullish on this future potential system; can't remember the last this this season that that model showed anything this significant thus far. Hence, I'm wondering if it really is onto something here.

[tolakram]

12Z GFS running.

Here's the break in the ridge that cause most models to slow this way down to almost a stall in the shorter term. I think. Grey lines are the 500mb heights.

[BobHarlem]

Not sure what's going on with the 12z GFS on this system, the simulated IR isn't even close to reality at the initial point (Doesn't show the convection at 47W at all)

[tolakram]

If you look at the vorticity from the 0Z euro and current GFS they both have the same thing happening. Some consolidation of the center, then a spiral up to reconsolidate further NW.

GFS

[NDG]

12Z GFS running.

Here's the break in the ridge that cause most models to slow this way down to almost a stall in the shorter term. I think. Grey lines are the 500mb heights.

https://i.imgur.com/B8KWSiN.png

Yes, that's a mid & UL low between two ridges that will cause it to slow down significantly but it is forecasted to dissipate and move north as the Bermuda ridge builds again as the trough in the NE US lifts up later next week and pushes the system to move again WNW.

[tolakram]

GFS maybe modelcane blowing up again. This one staying weak.

[tolakram]

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS is underestimating this, wouldn’t be surprised if there is a major hurricane approaching the Bahamas just after Labor Day

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1563560799225778176

[BobHarlem]

The 12z Cmc/Canadian/Gem eventually decides to do this with this system

[Blown Away]

A few GFS runs away from the Caribbean TW burying into CA and to far S to reemerge in the BOC.

[tolakram]

Here's the full CMC run. Big change from an early recurve and also struggling with the upper level low / break in the ridge. So now 4 models have a storm of unknown strength near the Bahamas in 10 days.

[blp]

The 12z Cmc/Canadian/Gem eventually decides to do this with this system

https://i.imgur.com/FZUmEPr.png

Oh no.. CMC coming on board to the Euro strong ridge not good.

[tolakram]

CMC day 10 - still a strong 500mb ridge



Also interesting is the CMC does show the GFS vorticity lobe that creates the Caribbean storm but keeps it over land from the looks of it.

[SFLcane]

[gatorcane]

If it looks like the “storm” is plowing through the ridge on the 12Z GFS it is because it is following the 850MB/700MB (lower-level) steering. If the GFS modeled a stronger storm, which I think it will be, it would head more west. See the 500MB (higher-level) steering below. Bottom-line the GFS recurve solution looks suspect:

[zzh]

I don't think this is 10/30