TD 10...Back Again

#421 Postby **fci** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 9:10 pm

boca_chris wrote:All those models are wrong because the system is heading W now and they show a WNW movement already....I also don't like the models until we actually have a storm which we don't yet.

About Andrew, that is not a once in a lifetime experience so don't be complacent about it. S FL was battered by major hurricanes from the E especially 1930s and 1940s...1926 Great Miami Hurricane? How about the 1947 Okeechobie storm? Then there is the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 the list goes on....

However S. Florida sees more hits from the GOM or Caribbean.

Chris:
If you're speaking about SE Florida; ie.. Boca/Palm Beach County as opposed to SOuth Florida in general; I think we get more hits from the Atlantic rather than the GOM or Carib.
I don't have the stats; perhaps someone does; but I always worry much more about the storms that come steaming in from the East or SE and not the West or South.
At least for my little neck of the woods, PBC.

#422 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 9:10 pm

Looks like it could recurve very close to Florida. A hit is not out of the question.

recurve? You mean recurve W into FL I hope. Models are not showing a north recurve yet.

hicksta · #423 Postby **hicksta** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 9:11 pm

give it another day or two till the models agree

#424 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 9:13 pm

boca_chris wrote:
Looks like it could recurve very close to Florida. A hit is not out of the question.

recurve? You mean recurve W into FL I hope. Models are not showing a north recurve yet.

recurve W into FL you hope? lol how can you hope for it to go West into FL. lol

<RICKY>

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #425 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 9:14 pm

It will had west for the next 72 to 96 hours. It is also forming a Cdo over that LLC. It is really starting to eneter a more favable enviroment. I expect it to start forming banding with a steady Cdo over the next 24 to 36 hours. I expect 50 mph by 5am Friday.

This is a option.

#426 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 9:14 pm

Chris:
If you're speaking about SE Florida; ie.. Boca/Palm Beach County as opposed to SOuth Florida in general; I think we get more hits from the Atlantic rather than the GOM or Carib.
I don't have the stats; perhaps someone does; but I always worry much more about the storms that come steaming in from the East or SE and not the West or South.
At least for my little neck of the woods, PBC.

No, I do mean Palm Beach/Broward/Dade/Monroe...more of our storms come in from the Caribbean not from the East. By storms I'm also including tropical storms and weak hurricanes. Not to say the East should not be underestimated because some of the most major hurricanes have hit from that direction. Just look at historical maps over the last 150 years.

#427 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 9:15 pm

recurve W into FL you hope? lol how can you hope for it to go West into FL. lol

I used hope to question the judgement not to show that I want it to hit. :lol:

#428 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 9:18 pm

Derek Ortt may have the stats on hurricane hits and what direction they came from for S. Florida. He made a statement somewhere that concurs with what I said about S. Florida hits.

#429 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 9:19 pm

boca_chris wrote:
recurve W into FL you hope? lol how can you hope for it to go West into FL. lol

I used hope to question the judgement not to show that I want it to hit.

ok good. cause i was gonna think you were a nut. lol.

<RICKY>

#430 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 9:19 pm

well I am a nut still :lol:

#431 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 9:20 pm

boca_chris wrote:well I am a nut still

its all good man. we're all nuts around here. 8-)

<RICKY>

#432 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 9:21 pm

its all good man. we're all nuts around here

yeah it makes the whole experience great.

#433 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 9:21 pm

looks like the low is moving away from the convection again...still heading west

cinlfla · #434 Postby **cinlfla** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 9:24 pm

OK normally I don't ask questions like this but I am curious if ex td 10 reorganizes. and possibly takes a track towards floridas east coast, I'm not by any means saying it will becase I have no clue where this thing is going as I am sure nobody else does, but we are moving into our condo in 10 days and I don't wan't to have to deal with a storm we have been waiting for this move for a long time and I am so excited to finally get to move. I'm just looking at a time frame thats all, if anyone might have a guess that would be great, I doubt very siousley that I will have to deal with it but who knows.

#435 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 9:24 pm

ivanhater wrote:looks like the low is moving away from the convection again...still heading west

yes you are correct. looks like its gonna happen all over again like its been doing for the past couple days. Flare up only to have the low level center move away from the convection. Shows that shear is still present. If this keeps up and keeps this system weak, it may just keep on going more and more and more West and be impacting the islands more then we are thinking right now.

<RICKY>

#436 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 9:25 pm

I would say we are looking at about 7-10 days down the road.

wxmann_91 · #437 Postby **wxmann_91** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 9:25 pm

Yeah we are definately nuts around here...22 pgs. on a remnant of a tropical depression and people are already calling on a FL hit despite this thing not even regenerated yet. So I'll add to the loconess:

I'll give it a 50% chance of reforming, 25% chance of making it to a TS, 10% chance of making it to hurricane, 2% chance of making it to major hurricane. As for landfall, 15% chance of making landfall as a TC, 20% chance of making landfall as a wave. As for major hurricane making landfall in FL, <1%.

That's my pessimistic (or optimistic depending on your opinion) option.

#438 Postby **fci** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 9:25 pm

boca_chris wrote:Derek Ortt may have the stats on hurricane hits and what direction they came from for S. Florida. He made a statement somewhere that concurs with what I said about S. Florida hits.

Yeah, like I said; I am not real sure but the ones I distinctly remember; Betsy, David, Andrew, Jeanne, Francis came from the Atlantic. I know that Donna came from the south and Cleo from the south. As it relates to our county; anything from the GOM is really inconsequential; Mitch etc... and not real memorable.
Are you sure Derek was referring to SE Florida or South Florida (east and west coasts) as a whole?
Stats for all storms, weak Hurricanes and Tropical Storms may very well prove me wrong I guess..

#439 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 9:26 pm

I'll give it a 50% chance of reforming, 25% chance of making it to a TS, 10% chance of making it to hurricane, 2% chance of making it to major hurricane. As for landfall, 15% chance of making landfall as a TC, 20% chance of making landfall as a wave. As for major hurricane making landfall in FL, <1%.

Yeah I'm going to begin analyzing these numbers :lol:

#440 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 9:26 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
ivanhater wrote:looks like the low is moving away from the convection again...still heading west

yes you are correct. looks like its gonna happen all over again like its been doing for the past couple days. Flare up only to have the low level center move away from the convection. Shows that shear is still present. If this keeps up and keeps this system weak, it may just keep on going more and more and more West and be impacting the islands more then we are thinking right now.

<RICKY>

ya, thats what im thinking....to me it seems like the pulses are happening closer together

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