Wilma,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[artist]

linkerweather - would love to see you start posting in the tropical analysis forum as well!



http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewforum.php?f=29


everyone needs to remember to check out the tropical analysis forum where the pro mets and analysts post. (above link)

[dld]

TBH...Let's just hope it comes in south of us...I'm not wishing anyone got this storm but I don't want to see 15-20 feet of storm surge in Tampa Bay or points north.

Me neither- that's why any chance of it going north or west of tampa
scares me...so I try to compile possibilities and see how they could
play out in all ways- going north and going south of us...
looks like a rough week

maybe not! I hope it fizzles out but maybe it wont get any of the west coast of Fl.

[linkerweather]

I typically don't have time to write out a thorough analysis. I feel that that would be better served in that forum. I have offered quick responses here and there, but those are better served here. just my opinion from perusing this board this season.

[tracyswfla]

there will be some info posted shortly. but again it will be nothing monumental. The weather info is always there.

So when would official evacs start? 72 hours prior to landfall?

Beats me, that is all EOC stuff. Our news department would report the information. The decisions are made solely by the emergency managers and those decisions are made using alot of different info.

Thanks

[seaswing]

After all the storms that have caused such catastrophic damage this year, I hope Florida EOC takes this storm VERY seriously. Since Andrew, Florida has lead the way in hurricane preparedness IMO. They need to take heed this time and act. I hope that they do, especially if Tampa is in the path at all.... if this storm is a cat 2 or 3 at landfall and rides straight through the state as I have seen some predict, inland areas would not be the place to go either. Like last year, we saw a lot of devastation from Frances and Jeanne. I would like to believe that it would be another one of those evac's 'out of state' for those who needed to leave. I would rather see people be a little PO'd that they left and little or no damage came to them than see a repeat of Katrina or Rita with people caught on the interstates cause they waited too long.

[artist]

I don't think there is a problem with Fl EOC. It is the local EOC's that worry me. I know Palm Beach counties wait until the absolute very last moment. Don't know how those on the west coast are.

[johngaltfla]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
17/2345 UTC 15.7N 80.1W T3.5/3.5 WILMA -- Atlantic Ocean


17/1745 UTC 15.7N 79.6W T3.5/3.5 WILMA -- Atlantic Ocean


The first reading of SSD dvorak sat estimate is the latest.As you can see the afternoon position was 15.7n-79.6w but tonight it is at 15.7n-80.1w so it's starting to move WESTWARD

That's not good, not good at all.

[gatorcane]

Brent's post (Dr. Steve Lyons analysis tonight):
Scenario 1: Trough picks it up... turns NE, goes across Florida somewhere

Scenario 2: Trough doesn't pick it up... goes WNW into the Yucatan or Belize

I'm still leaning towards Scenario 1. The ULL over S. Cali is very large in my opinion.

[Brent]

Brent's post (Dr. Steve Lyons analysis tonight):
Scenario 1: Trough picks it up... turns NE, goes across Florida somewhere

Scenario 2: Trough doesn't pick it up... goes WNW into the Yucatan or Belize

I'm still leaning towards Scenario 1. The ULL over S. Cali is very large in my opinion.

I am too... strongly. I think there's only a 20-25% chance that the trough does NOT get it.

[gatorcane]

I am too... strongly. I think there's only a 20-25% chance that the trough does NOT get it

.

Even if it doesn't get it, I think another one will (albeit causing the track to shift farther west and delayed until later next week), so either way a U.S threat is imminent with this one.

[MGC]

The ULL over SCal has been parked there for a few days now, as is another ULL over New England states. They look to be blocked. There is a disturbance coming into the west coast that might nudge the ULL NE into the westerlies. If this does happen it should drag a trough towards the gulf coast. This should push the ridge over the GOM south blocking a westward movement by Wilma. Wilma will respond by eventually moving northward and eventually NE into the Fla anywhere from the Keys to Tampa. Wilma should have plenty of time over the NW Caribbean to gradually intensify. Should easily reach Cat-2 perhaps Cat-3. Wilma shoud weaken prior to landfall in Florida......MGC

[Brent]

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/image ... 4_5day.gif

Getting close... but the NHC has it down to 85 kt by Saturday Evening.

[fci]

Looking at the bits of info from the experts, it seems that the models are moving more and more east/south on the possible landfall. Even saw one comment that this could turn a whole lot quicker and miss Florida to the south.

All of the talk about a Tampa Bay strike may be premature as the discussions from the NHC and others talk of a sharp turn in response to a trough.
Seems to me that Tampa would be well north of the storm and that the SW coast or Keys or even SOUTH of the Keys may be in the eventual path.

Lets see how it unfolds......

THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST JUST AN AMATUER'S OBSERVATIONS.

[TS Zack]

That ULL is now what will pick this thing up. It will begin to weaken the ridge but the big trough is going to be a longwave that digs out of Canada all the way to the Gulfcoast.

[krysof]

That ULL is now what will pick this thing up. It will begin to weaken the ridge but the big trough is going to be a longwave that digs out of Canada all the way to the Gulfcoast.

major cool down for th4 east if the trough is that powerful

[chadtm80]

linkweather feel free to pitch your company to have storm2k linked from your site

[Brent]

That ULL is now what will pick this thing up. It will begin to weaken the ridge but the big trough is going to be a longwave that digs out of Canada all the way to the Gulfcoast.

major cool down for th4 east if the trough is that powerful

THAT is an understatement... maybe record cold... even down to the coast.

[floridahurricaneguy]

Hmm. So maybe not a Tampa treat at all. Anyone here think track will be shifted north?

Matt

[cinlfla]

Hmm. So maybe not a Tampa treat at all. Anyone here think track will be shifted north?

Matt

Do not focus on the line, if your in the cone watch it!!!!!!! they will probably go back and forth.

[floridahurricaneguy]

Yea your right. Depending on its size it could give us Tropical Storm conditions up here. I think the turn will be more gradual.

Matt