91L invest Bahamas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[cycloneye]

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF GREAT
ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS
SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELED. ANOTHER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...IF
NECESSARY.

From the 11:30 AM Tropical Weather Outlook.

[boca]

91L is dead lets move on to 92L and see what that does.

[no advance]

Boca you know better than bringing down the hammer. Warmer water might do it. Have a nice wkend you all.

[boca]

I know no advance 92L looks healthy and 91L is very elongated east to west approx 600 miles.

[JonathanBelles]

i havent been on for 24 hrs. what has happened in the last day?

[boca]

fact789 nothing has changed with 91L other than its still moving WNW at 10mph. I don't think a TD will come out of this but will watch it to see if things change. 92L developed this morning 900 miles east of Bermuda thats it my friend for now.

[cpdaman]

ya i will admit it i find myself a little depressed with this storm even though this storm may not even form into a tropical depression it did the best it could given the situations it had

get em next time invest 91

[Extremeweatherguy]

It's going to be funny when 91L mysteriously strengthens later on or tonight after everyone said it was dead.

[SouthFloridawx]

000
FXUS62 KMFL 241345 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
945 AM EDT SAT JUN 24 2006

.UPDATE...MORNING MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW EAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NORTH OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. THIS LOW IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A VORTICITY CENTER THAT WAS EVIDENT YESTERDAY ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC NOW ROTATING SOUTHWEST
TOWARD MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
METRO PALM BEACH AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND NOW HAS A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS.
CONVECTIVE FOCUS SHOULD CHANGE TO LAND AREAS AS HEATING CONTINUES
AND A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE METRO EAST COAST AREAS WITH CONVERGENCE FROM ANY
SEABREEZE THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP. SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO DEVELOP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF COAST AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND
GULF SEABREEZE ALLOW SOME CONVERGENCE THERE ALSO. TREND OF ALL
MODELS IS TO BRING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ONSHORE CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY OR TONIGHT AND GFS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT AND
ACCURATE SO FAR. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK RIGHT NOW SO WILL
ONLY MAKE MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES TO WINDS AND POPS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. SCATTEROMETER
IMAGERY FROM EARLIER IN THE EVENING SHOWED THE ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINAS TO ARGUABLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTH
COAST OF HAITI. NO CLOSED CIRCULATION WAS DISCERNIBLE AT THE TIME
HOWEVER. WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED CONTINUED DRY AIR
ADVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND A RIDGE
OVER THE CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM THE 22Z
KXMR SOUNDING AND RECENT UPSTREAM GPSMET DATA FROM CAPE CANAVERAL
AND TITUSVILLE SHOW THAT THE EXPECTED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ON ITS
WAY...GENERALLY LOWER TO MID LEVEL. RADAR IS ALSO SHOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OFF FL EAST CENTRAL COAST THIS MORNING MOVING TOWARD SHORE.
A FEW TSTMS ACTIVE OFF THE FL WEST COAST AS WELL THIS
MORNING...LIKELY DUE TO VIGOROUS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM
YESTERDAY. THESE CELLS SHOULD BE INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS IN THE
NEXT 2-3 HRS.

FOR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS LAST NIGHT...MODELS IN ROUGH
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE TROUGH MOVING WEST INTO THE PENINSULA WITH A
LOW CLOSING OFF LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN SPEED
AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. THE NOGAPS AND CMC DEVELOP A WEAK LOW AND
MOVE IT TOWARD JAX THROUGH TODAY. MET SHOWS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
LOW INTO CENTRAL FL BY TONIGHT...AND THE MAV SHOWS A VERY WEAK
CLOSED LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE LAKE LATER TODAY. THINK THE MAV IS
MAYBE A LITTLE FAST...AND THE PATH MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH...BUT THE
IDEA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE CHECKS.
MAV POP GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS BEEN DROPPING IN EARLIER RUNS...HAS
REBOUNDED IN LINE WITH THE MET. KEPT THE NUMEROUS WORDING FOR
LATER TODAY OVER MOST EASTERN AREAS. SUNDAY MAY SEE MORE OF THE
SAME...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. MUCH DEPENDS ON THE PATH OF THE
LOW PRESSURE. IT GOES FURTHER NORTH AS WITH NOGAPS SOLUTION...FCST
POPS MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE.

[AnnularCane]

It's going to be funny when 91L mysteriously strengthens later on or tonight after everyone said it was dead.

It wouldn't be the first time that kind of thing happened!

[Rainband]

It's going to be funny when 91L mysteriously strengthens later on or tonight after everyone said it was dead.

I said it looked bad. So I am safe Seriously though. Anything is possible. The NHC even said so.

[cpdaman]

sorry i couldn't resist the; water vapor imagery seems to me to be showing the areas or dryer air shrinking and moistening up abit more. warmer SST temps 82-86 in the bahamas I REALLY DO WANT TO GIVE UP ON THIS STORM but it is close by and it appears (ON WV imagery to try to close off just east of bahamas)

what are the tendency in the shear forecast for the southern half of florida

[drezee]

Meso discussion for interaction of 91L and FL

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1335.html

[rockyman]

I'm a little confused...we have a surface low pressure near south Florida...it's hurricane season...pressure are falling in the Bahamas...winds have backed around to the west...and the Board is writing this system's obituary and moving on to a system about a thousand miles away from the nearest landmass? My eye is staying on this ball (91L) until the surface low dissipates or is swept out to sea.

[Rainband]

I'm a little confused...we have a surface low pressure near south Florida...it's hurricane season...pressure are falling in the Bahamas...winds have backed around to the west...and the Board is writing this system's obituary and moving on to a system about a thousand miles away from the nearest landmass? My eye is staying on this ball (91L) until the surface low dissipates or is swept out to sea.

According to the floater. There is no surface low. Just a Broad area of Low pressure. I agree though. I am still watching

[rockyman]

This visble wind map clearly shows low to mid-level winds clearly circulating around some type of central point over the northern Bahamas:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8v4km.html

[Rainband]

Thanks

[Ivan14]

I still say it could develop. I give it a 40% chance of it becoming TD 2. I don't think it will be our next named storm. Invest 92L has a better chance IMO to become our next named storm.

[gatorcane]

This is definitely something to watch. Winds across South Florida have veered to the west today indicating a low level circulation is getting going. Winds were NE yesterday.

Notice all South Florida locations are indicating pressures are falling

NAPLES MOSUNNY 87 69 54 W13 29.93F
W PALM BEACH PTSUNNY 88 71 57 N8 29.92F
FT LAUDER-EXEC CLOUDY 85 69 58 W9 29.91F
FT LAUDERDALE CLOUDY 85 68 56 W9 29.91F
POMPANO BEACH CLOUDY 84 71 65 W10 29.92F
PEMBROKE PINES CLOUDY 85 70 60 N9 29.94F
OPA LOCKA CLOUDY 86 69 56 W10 29.93F
MIAMI CLOUDY 86 68 54 VRB5 29.92F
MIAMI BEACH N/A 85 73 68 CALM 29.90F
WEST KENDALL CLOUDY 87 69 54 N6 29.91F

[rockyman]

There's some life in this old thread yet