Long-Term Model Runs

[flwxwatcher]

12Z EURO shows some possible action along the SE Coast in the Long range.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7091112!!/

flwx, I think that is 91L the Euro is moving to the SE US at 10 days. Seems about right given the distance and synoptic setup.

Ronjon , you bring up a good point. I had forgotten about 91L being out there.

[flwxwatcher]

Rather than focusing on specifics in the model runs, I'll just say that I'm noticing that the pattern on both the latest GFS and ECMWF is one that imho would be to a potential tropical threat to the SE U.S. coast next week: pretty strong sfc highs over and just offshore the NE U.S. bringing in steady lower level NE winds on many of the days in the SE along with pretty strong upper level ridging in the eastern U.S. not allowing a good opportunity for a trough to sweep anything away. Also, strong high pressure over the NE is often conducive to low pressure forming off the SE coast. So, if this pattern does verify, I feel that either a home grown system could easily form or else a preexisting system could possibly move in from further offshore. I could see a scenario where that preexisting system could be Invest 91L.

Larrywx.. Nice post and agreed. the pattern in the EURO and GFS and for that matter the UKMET which builds heights in the NW Atlantic also would be conducive to having something underneath in the SW Atlantic. Lets see how the pattern shapes up.

[ronjon]

06Z GFS (9/12) shows a little quicker development of a storm in the western caribbean in about a week and then slowly moves it north into the GOM over the next week. Interesting scenario to say the least. There is some support from CMC and NOGAPs too.

[flwxwatcher]

the 12Z EURO shows some action picking up in the next week. After looking closing it appears that it sends T.D. 8 just North of the Islands and then Toward the Bahamas and Florida in the longer range and develops fairly healthy system by Day 10 behind T.D. Eight. Lets see how future Model runs pan out but the pattern is one in which it wouldn't surprise me to see something in the SW Atlantic in the longer range.


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7091212!!/


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7091212!!/

[Meso]

[flwxwatcher]

The GFS for several runs has been hinting at something trying to develoipe underneath the big High in the NW Atlantic next week and now the EURO is trying to develop something also.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7091300!!/

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7091300!!/

[flwxwatcher]

12Z EURO develops a Gulf Low and sends it Towards Texas. The 12Z JMA. develops a low that crosses Florida and into the Gulf.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7091312!!/


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7091312!!/


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7091312!!/

[KWT]

that 12z Euro reminds me of the way Humberto developed...

[ronjon]

06Z GFS (9/22) spins up 4 or 5 cyclones during the next two weeks. I'd swear I was looking at the Canadian. Are we starting to see the effect of the long awaited La Nina pattern show up in the models? By the way, the latest CMC also spins up 4 or 5 storms (but in one week).

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/index_slp_su_loop.shtml

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007092200&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[flwxwatcher]

Yes , I have seen the GFS last few runs with its multiple developments and even the conservative EURO trys to spin up a few storms in the next 10 days. Maybe an active late season??

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7092200!!/

[ronjon]

12Z NAM looks like it's trying to spin up a cyclone over the FL keys in 84 hrs. Is it a phantom storm? I think the NAM has been doing pretty good with cyclogenesis this year, although it does bias them them too strong.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/12/index_slp_s_loop.shtml

[storms in NC]

Yes , I have seen the GFS last few runs with its multiple developments and even the conservative EURO trys to spin up a few storms in the next 10 days. Maybe an active late season??

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7092200!!/

Not going to happen. About the only place that would be good for development would be the WC or the gulf. But that is as far as I would go. The Atlantic is just not good now or has it been this year. I don't think things will change any time soon. JIMO.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS Loop



If the 12z GFS is right,it will be a busy start to october.However,the long range forecasts are to trust mildly.What we have to watch is for other models to jump in and have a definite trend.

[ronjon]

12Z NAM (9/23) shows development in the SE GOM in 72-84 hrs. Shows 94L heading off the south TX and 97L moving over PR. Did someone just flick the switch on for tropical development in the Atlantic Basin? Could be a wild ride the next 6-8 weeks.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/12/index_slp_s_loop.shtml

[flwxwatcher]

RONJON..
Yes, looks like the Tropics have woke up. Last Nights EURO has a weak low NE of PR that tracks thru the Southern Bahamas to near Cuba.. I saw the NAM solution and the GFS does bring a increase of moisture into the SE Gulf/ Florida in the same time frame the NAM trys to spin something up. Looks like a busy time the next week or so at least.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2007092300!!/

[flwxwatcher]

12Z EURO shows the Cape Verde system developing into a strong system but also has a storm right at Florida's doorstep at day 10.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7092312!!/

[cycloneye]

12Z EURO shows the Cape Verde system developing into a strong system but also has a storm right at Florida's doorstep at day 10.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7092312!!/

Is that 97L near Florida?

[KWT]

I believe 97L is the southern low in the Caribbean, if you track the L you can see it gets towards the Bahamas then dives WSW across Cuba.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS Loop



This 18z GFS run shows many,many,many lows almost everywhere.If this pans out after 2 weeks of this run,the 2007 season would have 25 named storms.

[flwxwatcher]

12Z EURO spins a system up around Florida in the 8-10 day range. Its been hinting at this now for the last few runs. The pattern it shows would be ripe for something to try and form in the SW Atlantic in the 7-10 day range. Interesting to see how this pans out.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7092412!!/