ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

Can you believe the 30 day SOI is about to cross to La Nina threshold of +8?

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

[Hammy]

Is this in any way related to the shrinking of the subsurface warm pool?

[Ntxw]

It appears bigtime upwelling is going on at Nino 3.4 and 4.

You have to be careful with these daily's the TAO buoys is showing expanding of 0.5C not reducing. As a reminder the CDAS maps do not always follow the TAO/Triton data for whatever reason. I have very little doubt the El Nino is making it's appearance right now, as remains the question is how strong will it be and when the CPC will declare it.

Last update- this was 0.4C


Latest 5 day average, we are well on our way to the first greater than 0.5C reading on Monday


Currents are moving strongly from west to east, it's only due time we will see another strong down-well oceanic kelvin wave and possibly another strong warm pool for the fall.

[cycloneye]

JB keeps insisting on El Nino being Modoki.

"‏@BigJoeBastardi · I outlined in Sept 2011 series of 3 potentially harsh winters.12-13,13-14,14-15 . Modiki winters like we have next winter usually cold,snowy."

[Ntxw]

JB keeps insisting on El Nino being Modoki.

"‏@BigJoeBastardi · I outlined in Sept 2011 series of 3 potentially harsh winters.12-13,13-14,14-15 . Modiki winters like we have next winter usually cold,snowy."

His modoki is 2009 style, where it was a full basin El Nino with strongest warm anomalies in the cpac. He's been harping 02 and 09. He seems to be favoring this because of his call for cold US winter.

[Kingarabian]

Is this in any way related to the shrinking of the subsurface warm pool?

Tropical activity near Darwin.

One has to think that if the atmosphere continues to not correlate with the ocean, a strong Nino may be out of the pictures.

[dexterlabio]

JB keeps insisting on El Nino being Modoki.

"‏@BigJoeBastardi · I outlined in Sept 2011 series of 3 potentially harsh winters.12-13,13-14,14-15 . Modiki winters like we have next winter usually cold,snowy."

I still don't get how he can still harp for a modoki when things are going like this.




Whether it's strong or moderate, the potential EN this year looks more like a traditional, east-based one.

Having said that, I think we will get an El Nino reading in MJJ. Not sure if it will make to EN threshold in AMJ period. The atmosphere has to correlate with the ocean first for a steady warming...but I believe we are getting there..

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Is there a model that forecasts a Modoki? ECMWF did before, but they changed to an EP type El Niño.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Can you believe the 30 day SOI is about to cross to La Nina threshold of +8?

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

Other Niño years had these blips too. Let's wait till it goes down significantly.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

CFSv2 has an uptick in El Niño intensity. From borderline 1.5 to 1.7 in Niño 3.4 amd an uptick in other Niño regions too.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Big-time warming seen near the coast of Peru and the rest of Niño 1+2. Warming is also spreading westwards and is also evident near Niño 3 too. Warm pool south of the warm waters now weakening giving way to warmer anomalies. Slight warming also seen over the Niño regions 3.4 and 4.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Obviously an Eastern Pacific (EP) type El Niño as seen in the graphic above. Niño 1+2 is the warmest region as of now. Not surprised if anomalies there will reach moderate threshold anytime in this or next week.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

In the TAO data, it is showing 2 different subsurface pools, one is the CP weakening pool and the very warm pool near Peru. The other data shows the subsurface pool has weakened. Which is real now?

[cycloneye]

CFSv2 peaks around +1.7C by OND period.One ensemble member goes to the roof with a super,super,super El Nino above +3.0C but I think is a big outlier.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

CFSv2 peaks around +1.7C by OND period.One ensemble member goes to the roof with a super,super,super El Nino above +3.0C but I think is a big outlier.

All ensemble members go above 0.5 C for this year.and isn't 1.7 strong?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Finally, the Philippine media notice the upcoming El Niño. It says "An El Niño is possible to occur by June or July".

[Ntxw]

A little link I thought I'd share. I know we talk about sub-surface, anomalies, and ocean water but many don't understand what it means hence the talk of growing and shrinking warm pools.

http://www.classzone.com/books/earth_science/terc/content/investigations/esu601/esu601page02.cfm?chapter_no=investigation

To understand ENSO one must know how the thermocline works, so fun link of the day!

There is really (sort of) no such thing as a warm pool in the sub-surface coming and going in thin air (or ocean). It's simply the movement of Ocean water, a warm anomaly is when the warm ocean water from the west is evenly distributed from east to west, cooler anomalies is the retreat of this warm water. So it's not appearing and disappearing, it's moving.

Hope it is a good read!

[asd123]

In the TAO data, it is showing 2 different subsurface pools, one is the CP weakening pool and the very warm pool near Peru. The other data shows the subsurface pool has weakened. Which is real now?

Make sure you check the date;

Go to viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&start=0

The 5th image down shows the current anomaly pool as of May 1 (This image updates daily). If you go down to the 7th image, that image is from April 21 (Image updates, don't know how often, at least weekly, if not longer). As of the most recent image, the pool has actually strengthened.

[Ntxw]

So assuming we've all looked at the link , here's the latest Satellite data of sea surface heights(updates every 15 days so new one soon).


______
Here was 2009 at it's peak, modoki. Sea level never rose all that much in the east, mostly central pacific as was 2002 and 2004.

[Ntxw]

So now that you've been teased with what a modoki looks like, you ask what did the last big traditional El Nino look like, in terms of sea leve heights? (minus 2006 it was too weak and saw little height rises) and you get 1997!

April 25, 1997



By the end of May it looks like this



Lets see where we stand in about 3 weeks, we are definitely heading in that direction in the eastern Pacific.