Models Developing a Strong Tropical Wave to Move Off Africa

[ROCK]

you know maybe the CMC was not out to lunch after all? hmmmm..

[Stormcenter]

Yep it was the only model that showed the African wave absorbing TD#2.

By the way there is still a ton of dry air north of TD#2 and African wave is headed in that same
area.

you know maybe the CMC was not out to lunch after all? hmmmm..

[sunnyday]

Passing through S. Fla. earlier tonight, local mets are saying td2 is a goner. They seem to think the big wave that came off Africa will be a hurricane down the road.

[Derek Ortt]

you know maybe the CMC was not out to lunch after all? hmmmm..

it was out to lunch. It had TD 2 larger than the trailing wave and the combined storm taking TD 2's track. Laughable

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Suspect they will pull the plug TD-2 in tommorrows update. Or weaken it. However if it doesnt go away it will be back in 72 hours. Which would Vindicate GFS track


Refocused on that energy heading towards Hispaniola as i speak this is really firing up!

This wave that the models are hyping to come off africa is the one to really watch. Even if TD-2 gets away the models never forecasted anything more than a 60km TS.

[ROCK]

you know maybe the CMC was not out to lunch after all? hmmmm..

it was out to lunch. It had TD 2 larger than the trailing wave and the combined storm taking TD 2's track. Laughable

Oh I agree on the track....but maybe it was hinting at something as if TD2 would be surpessed by this new wave....ala the last GFS run which opened it up a few times in the run....

[RL3AO]

you know maybe the CMC was not out to lunch after all? hmmmm..

it was out to lunch. It had TD 2 larger than the trailing wave and the combined storm taking TD 2's track. Laughable

Oh I agree on the track....but maybe it was hinting at something as if TD2 would be surpessed by this new wave....ala the last GFS run which opened it up a few times in the run....

No, the CMC had TD2 intensifying and absorbing the new wave.

[Scorpion]

00z GFS initialization:

[Bocadude85]

So what are the chances that this wave does not develop?

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Convection continues to gradually increase...Invest 90L soon!

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... /index.htm

[Sanibel]

I think it's a d-min. (Diurnal minima where the convection wanes before rebounding)

If not that next wave over Africa looks like a doozy.

[MGC]

There is always the chance that this wave will not develope. Just because it has model support don't mean squat to Mother Nature. Only time will tell. I'd say chances are good though.....MGC

[Brent]

[ROCK]

somewhat similar to the 18z....

[Aquawind]

Dang persistant model..now we just need persistant convection ..lol Poor Haiti just keeps getting kicked around..not funny

[cycloneye]

Yeah Brent,it obliberates PR to the ages if than pans out.

[Hurricaneman]

actually its about 200 miles north of the 18z

[Stormcenter]

That's what it looks like to me but I'm no expert.

actually its about 200 miles north of the 18z

[ROCK]

actually its about 200 miles north of the 18z

thus the word "somewhat"

[ROCK]

through the islands and up the EC.....thats a nice swing from NO to EC....