Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

[HurricaneWarning92]

Convection appears to be trying to wrap around the circulation...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rb.html

[Blown Away]

What a pattern change....

http://img607.imageshack.us/img607/7757/12zeurotropical500mbslp.gif

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Did the ECMWF not develop it at all or did it get killed over Hispaniola?

[Ivanhater]

Killed over the Islands but coming back together in the Southern Gulf with a weakness over the north central Gulf coast.

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS Ensemble mean brings it across Cuba then into the Central Gulf



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[ROCK]

Killed over the Islands but coming back together in the Southern Gulf with a weakness over the north central Gulf coast.

didnt even close off over the islands....kills the TW maybe.. ..you see the EURO back off like this in the med range you have to take it under consideration even if the GFS is showing a CAT 3 into FL...

look at the stable air / SAL this thing is imbedded in. Its dragging across the pond with it...

[Stormcenter]

I agree 100%.

Killed over the Islands but coming back together in the Southern Gulf with a weakness over the north central Gulf coast.

didnt even close off over the islands....kills the TW maybe.. ..you see the EURO back off like this in the med range you have to take it under consideration even if the GFS is showing a CAT 3 into FL...

look at the stable air / SAL this thing is imbedded in. Its dragging across the pond with it...

[ConvergenceZone]

Hmm, I wonder if the models are going to start shifting west now? I bet they will if they also start to sniff out the High that's protecing the Gulf breaking down/moving

[ROCK]

12z GFS Ensemble mean brings it across Cuba then into the Central Gulf

http://img806.imageshack.us/img806/3214/12zgfsensemble500mbhght.gif

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Central GOM.....no way!!! the death ridge will protect us all...<sarcasm> where is Portastorm?

[ROCK]

I agree 100%.

Killed over the Islands but coming back together in the Southern Gulf with a weakness over the north central Gulf coast.

didnt even close off over the islands....kills the TW maybe.. ..you see the EURO back off like this in the med range you have to take it under consideration even if the GFS is showing a CAT 3 into FL...

look at the stable air / SAL this thing is imbedded in. Its dragging across the pond with it...

thats like the first time you have ever agreed with me in like 8 years.....

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian ensembles agree with the Gulf solution as well



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[Miami Storm Tracker]

12z GFS Ensemble mean brings it across Cuba then into the Central Gulf



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Just curious waht happened to the other storm that was behind this one. I don't even see a reflection of it on that run/

[caneseddy]

Killed over the Islands but coming back together in the Southern Gulf with a weakness over the north central Gulf coast.

didnt even close off over the islands....kills the TW maybe.. ..you see the EURO back off like this in the med range you have to take it under consideration even if the GFS is showing a CAT 3 into FL...

look at the stable air / SAL this thing is imbedded in. Its dragging across the pond with it...

Now that you mention the Euro, watch it bring it back in the 00z run and aim it as a Cat 4 into Texas

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS Ensemble mean brings it across Cuba then into the Central Gulf



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Just curious waht happened to the other storm that was behind this one. I don't even see a reflection of it on that run/

Because it is a composite of multiple runs which used for steering patterns, not intensity. Although the intensity for the storm in the Gulf on the ensemble mean indicates a very strong system in the Gulf.

[Ivanhater]

12z Ukie is all over it

[SouthFLTropics]

I guess the only question is how does it get to the Gulf? Is it a Caribbean Cruiser or is it a Bahama Mama and a Florida threat???

SFT

[cycloneye]

Michael,you know when Ukie being a very conservative model is on board,it speaks volumes.

[Stormcenter]

Rock there is always a first time. Keep up up the great posts.

[Scorpion]

The fact that so many models are taking it over the islands this long way out means most likely it will avoid them

[northjaxpro]

I guess the only question is how does it get to the Gulf? Is it a Caribbean Cruiser or is it a Bahama Mama and a Florida threat???

SFT

This is the fun game of model speculating SouthFLTropics. Still too early with the variables still in play to change things, but hopefully we will get some clues in the next 48-72 hours from the models as to the answer to your above questions. That is, if our pouch develops of course.

[5KOVERLIBOR]

Maybe its time to re-read some basics on Chaos Theory? Three images on this page alone: 288, 264 and 120-hour forecasts.

Oy veh!