2015 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

I'm getting frustrated. GFS seems to agree on raging wind shear oer the basin for the next 16 days, despite CCKW/MJO lurking nearby.

Why on earth can't the wind shear cooperate the on year we have record SST's for us to have a 1992-esque season?

[gatorcane]

I'm getting frustrated. GFS seems to agree on raging wind shear oer the basin for the next 16 days, despite CCKW/MJO lurking nearby.

Why on earth can't the wind shear cooperate the on year we have record SST's for us to have a 1992-esque season?

Yeah it's a bit strange. Seems like the EPAC should be in overdrive by now but it is not even with this El Nino and above normal SSTs.

This wind shear seems to be not only capping the Atlantic at the moment but it has spread into the EPAC as well. Things were so favorable just a couple of weeks ago and how quickly they have changed.

A lot of times if the EPAC is quiet the Atlantic gets going but that is not even the case here.

[Ntxw]

Thats because we are about to get a very strong MJO event over the WPAC, subsidence rules elsewhere. CPAC will be next and then EPAC, this WWB is very impressive, development will come in bursts once it arrives.

[Kingarabian]

I'm getting frustrated. GFS seems to agree on raging wind shear oer the basin for the next 16 days, despite CCKW/MJO lurking nearby.

Why on earth can't the wind shear cooperate the on year we have record SST's for us to have a 1992-esque season?

There will always be storms that models initially don't sniff out.

[Yellow Evan]

I'm getting frustrated. GFS seems to agree on raging wind shear over the basin for the next 16 days, despite CCKW/MJO lurking nearby.

Why on earth can't the wind shear cooperate the on year we have record SST's for us to have a 1992-esque season?

There will always be storms that models initially don't sniff out.

I know that as well as anyone, but idk, just don't feel particularly confident. When the EPAC will become active is a very tricky forecast without any clear signals from the guidance.

I did say the same thing last July and look what happened in August.

[Yellow Evan]

I'm getting frustrated. GFS seems to agree on raging wind shear oer the basin for the next 16 days, despite CCKW/MJO lurking nearby.

Why on earth can't the wind shear cooperate the on year we have record SST's for us to have a 1992-esque season?

Yeah it's a bit strange. Seems like the EPAC should be in overdrive by now but it is not even with this El Nino and above normal SSTs.

This wind shear seems to be not only capping the Atlantic at the moment but it has spread into the EPAC as well. Things were so favorable just a couple of weeks ago and how quickly they have changed.

A lot of times if the EPAC is quiet the Atlantic gets going but that is not even the case here.

You'd think we're in a Modoki with this kind of shear, but we are not.

I know the WPAC is in overdrive right now, stealing all the upward motion thought, but with a KW looming and MJO heading for the the CPAC, you'd think there'd be at least a storm in the long range.

[Yellow Evan]

Thats because we are about to get a very strong MJO event over the WPAC, subsidence rules elsewhere. CPAC will be next and then EPAC, this WWB is very impressive, development will come in bursts once it arrives.

Yes, but the models aren't aren't too keen on the EPAc. That's why I'm not too confident yet, even though they bring in a KW very soon, and eventually bring MJO in.

[gatorcane]

12Z GEM seems to develop something but nothing very strong.

[Yellow Evan]

12Z GEM seems to develop something but nothing very strong.

Sorta, but it's the CMC.

[Yellow Evan]

Cloudiness and thunderstorms located about 1600 miles east-
southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii are associated with a trough
of low pressure. Some slow development of this system is possible
during the next few days before upper-level winds become unfavorable
for tropical cyclone formation. This system is expected to move
west-northwestward into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's area
of responsibility within a couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Yellow Evan]

NASA is usually pretty good at sniffing stuff out.

[Yellow Evan]

Cloudiness and showers associated with a trough of low pressure
located about 1600 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii
have changed little in organization. However, some slow development
of this disturbance is possible during the next few days before
upper-level winds become unfavorable for tropical cyclone
formation. This system is expected to move west-northwestward into
the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's area of responsibility within
a couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Yellow Evan]

A broad area of low pressure located about 1400 miles east-southeast
of the Big Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some slow development of this disturbance is possible
during the next couple of days before upper-level winds become
unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. This system is expected
to move west-northwestward into the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center's area of responsibility later today or on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Now 90C I think

[Yellow Evan]

GFS continues to show nothing still despite an upcoming KW.

I really don't know what's causing the shear to be high, but right now, I am very disappointed.

[gatorcane]

GEM is trending stronger for EPAC development next week, but GFS shows no development.

[Yellow Evan]

CMC sub-1000 mbar systems aren't as frequent. Shear is forecast by the GFS to relax.

But right now, I think we can forget a 1992 or even a 2014/1985-esque season for now.

[Cyclenall]

GFS continues to show nothing still despite an upcoming KW.

I really don't know what's causing the shear to be high, but right now, I am very disappointed.

It fits in with the rest of Earth's weather during the last 6 days, nothing but boring same old. Disappointed is an understatement, not following anything really. The "action" is really on the west side with the heat, your lucky in my view. I would have thought a quickly strengthening El Nino would have more than this!

[gatorcane]

Nothing really showing up in MU through 16 days, maybe some weak low at the very end of the run in fantasy land.

Odd the EPAC is so quiet for sure, given the developing "super" El Niño.

Goes to show warm SSTs are not enough, no matter how much above normal the SSTs are running. If shear is around, that will squash development.

[NDG]

Despite some Shear I think why the EPAC is also so quite lately and into the near future is because maybe some of the dry stable air from the Atlantic has been pushing past C.A. and into parts of the eastern Pacific as shown on the second image below.

[Yellow Evan]

Then again it's only June 29 and we're mostly waiting for MJO to come around. The WPAC is stealing the upward motion right now. It might be too late for a 1992-seque season, but nevertheless, this isn't that atypical of El Nino (they usually have a big lull thrown in).

How fast this Nino weakens will be key in our chances for a 1992-esque season in future years.