2015 WPAC Season

[mrbagyo]

Latest long range GFS run shows Loke being absorbed by Extratropical Cyclone Atsani then moves Kilo to WPAC basin to evolve into a very intense system. 95E to rake hawaii.

[euro6208]

Latest long range GFS run shows Loke being absorbed by Extratropical Cyclone Atsani then moves Kilo to WPAC basin to evolve into a very intense system. 95E to rake hawaii.

Indeed a long lived Category 5 in the WPAC...

[euro6208]

Etau looking very scary...

Latest GFS run has a deep low just west of the dateline, the primary spot for storms this season due to nino, developing.

00Z is slower than 18Z but a bit deeper. Have to watch out in the next few runs if this develops. I see another threat looming...

[euro6208]

Fitting name...

Etau was submitted by Palau in Micronesia meaning Storm Cloud...

Category 5?

[1900hurricane]

I don't think that would be Etau that is being shown, but rather the current storm Kilo.

[euro6208]

I don't think that would be Etau that is being shown, but rather the current storm Kilo.

Not Kilo as this develops west of the dateline after Kilo recurves...

[euro6208]

GFS has now joined the other models with little to no activity.

Except CMC which continues to show multiple systems simultaneously...

[euro6208]

This is the period from 1959 to 2013 for storm frequency, tropical storms and typhoons, by month...



The Ber months are notorious for devastating and intense typhoons especially during nino. This season is shaping up to beat 1997 at this rate with that year ending in a bang with 6 Cat 5's...

[euro6208]

CMC develops this area around Kosrae into typhoon Etau and recurves it well to the east of the Marianas ahead of approaching Kilo.



Long range CMC also develops another typhoon named Vamco near the P.I with Kilo and Etau interacting...

[euro6208]

As we head into September where activity is more severe and onwards, NWS Guam has you covered from the dateline to 130E....

[euro6208]

Looks like our top two models aren't developing anything in the latest runs.

Big troubles coming...

[euro6208]

While we wait for the next surge of monsters, here is a great blog from Dr. Phil on this record setting season...

-3x as many Cat 3's typhoon.

-4x as many days where Cat. 3+ typhoon were present.

-3x as much ACE as would be expected based on the 1981-2010 climatology

-ACE in the Northwest Pacific is much higher than any other record, over 50 units greater than 2nd place (2004). In fact, even if the Northwest Pacific had no additional activity this year, it would still have generated more ACE than the average 1981-2010 season!

-The 1981-2010 supertyphoon average through August 26 is 1.4 supertyphoons, while 2015 has already had six supertyphoons (Maysak, Noul, Dolphin, Nangka, Soudelor and Atsani).

-This ties 2015 with 2004 for the most supertyphoons ever recorded by August 26. For reference, the average 1981-2010 season had only had 4 supertyphoons. However, the 2015 season still has a way to go to tie the seasonal record of 11 supertyphoons originally set in 1965 and tied in 1997.







http://www.wunderground.com/blog/PhilKlotzbach/comment.html?entrynum=6

World records...

[euro6208]

06Z hinting on potential Etau near Wake Island...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Record shattering ACE now at 323.2 units, with Nangka, Goni and Atsani giving the most at 45.4, 40.7 and 37.6 respectively

[euro6208]

06Z hinting on potential Etau near Wake Island...

06Z GFS takes what was supposed to be Etau, now Vamco through the Marianas again from the dateline with little to no strengthening but steadily intensifying as it hits the CNMI.

Now Etau is the easternmost system strengthens it to a typhoon and could be a threat to Wake...

[1900hurricane]

Kilo will be crossing over into the WPac in the next day or two and could be a fairly prolific ACE-maker if the globals are to be believed, but will likely be the only game in town for the next week. As Kilo starts to recurve over the WPac 8-10 days from now, the last couple ECMWF runs start to try to develop a storm or two in the vicinity of Guam from a monsoon trough. This is way down the road from now, but lower pressures are beginning to show up in the ensemble means, giving some confidence that something may be preparing to brew in the extended range.

[euro6208]

GFS has been showing the past 3 runs of something developing near the dateline. 00Z had a typhoon, 06Z had a large monsoon like depression, and now 12Z shows twin tropical storms...

[euro6208]

00Z looks like another long tracking monster storm about to commence with sights on maybe the Marianas...

[euro6208]

Very busy season for the Marianas with September coming up...

[euro6208]

EURO also showing Etau but more north...