2019 EPAC season

[TheStormExpert]

This basin has underperformed BIG TIME so far this season.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Aug 9 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located near the Gulf of Tehuantepec have become a little
more concentrated overnight. Conditions are forecast to be
conducive for some additional development over the weekend and
a tropical depression could form within the next few days while
the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, just off the
southwestern coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, this
system could product locally heavy rainfall along portions of the
southern and southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula by
early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually
become more conducive for development through the middle of next
week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Brown

[talkon]

If 6Z GFS is to be believed the EPAC/CPAC will get pretty active soon:

[hurricanes1234]

Lol

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure has developed a few hundred miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico and is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is
possible over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A tropical wave located a little less than 1000 miles south-
southwest of the Baja California peninsula is producing an area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to become more conducive for tropical cyclone formation
early next week while the system moves westward or west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

INVEST 93E is up

[Kingarabian]

I've season cancelled. My forecast will likely be busting big time for the EPAC (hyper active season) and I'm having serious reservations that the season will be above average in ACE.

[NotSparta]

I've season cancelled. My forecast will likely be busting big time for the EPAC (hyper active season) and I'm having serious reservations that the season will be above average in ACE.

I never made a seasonal forecast for the EPAC, but while I don't think it'll be hyperactive, I still believe it be above normal as it's stayed near normal, helped by some ACE boosting long trackers, and I believe the CPAC will boost numbers as well. The ENSO state has argued for a less active EPAC, but more active CPAC

[cycloneye]

GFS long range has powerful hurricane close call for Baja California and it makes landfall in the northern part.

[Astromanía]

Tropical Depression near California?

[NotSparta]

3. An area of disturbed weather located a little less than 1000
miles south-southwest of the Baja California peninsula is currently
disorganized. However, environmental conditions are expected to
become more conducive for tropical cyclone formation by the middle
next week as this disturbance moves westward or west- northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Chris90]

I'm holding off on season cancelling yet. This was the latest start to a season since reliable record keeping began in '71, and when you consider that, it's been producing really well.
1997 was a super Nino, and the G storm, Guillermo, formed July 30th. The G storm this year formed August 3rd. That's pretty impressive considering the record late start this year and the fact the Nino continues to die and is VERY west based. Sure, a lot of the storms have been sloppy, but Barbara and Erick were both impressive. As we head into September and October I'm expecting ACE generation to perk up in the CPAC. I think we'll have at least one more storm at major status in that basin.
I predicted 22/15/8 a few months ago, and I'm not that bullish anymore, but I'm guessing at something like 15/8/5, right around average.

[TheStormExpert]

I've season cancelled. My forecast will likely be busting big time for the EPAC (hyper active season) and I'm having serious reservations that the season will be above average in ACE.

A little too soon for season cancel I’d say for the East Pacific. Atlantic though, that’s something different.

[Kingarabian]

The problem can be seen with model runs and invest areas. Models try to spin systems up only to back off. We then see it in real time with tagged invest areas not able to get the job done.

[StruThiO]

A little too soon for season cancel I’d say for the East Pacific. Atlantic though, that’s something different.

[Kingarabian]

I'm holding off on season cancelling yet. This was the latest start to a season since reliable record keeping began in '71, and when you consider that, it's been producing really well.
1997 was a super Nino, and the G storm, Guillermo, formed July 30th. The G storm this year formed August 3rd. That's pretty impressive considering the record late start this year and the fact the Nino continues to die and is VERY west based. Sure, a lot of the storms have been sloppy, but Barbara and Erick were both impressive. As we head into September and October I'm expecting ACE generation to perk up in the CPAC. I think we'll have at least one more storm at major status in that basin.
I predicted 22/15/8 a few months ago, and I'm not that bullish anymore, but I'm guessing at something like 15/8/5, right around average.

I agree with your retracted numbers. I'd love to see some classic EPAC major hurricane fish, but everything is really struggling this year. Like there's something inhibiting development because SST's look pretty good and shear has been the same it was the past few years.

[CyclonicFury]

This season likely won't end up record breaking like 2018, but "season cancelling" would imply that the season won't happen at all, which it already has. We've had slightly below average activity so far.

It's likely this season will be slower than we've been used to since 2014, but I still think an ACE of 100+ is very achievable.

[CyclonicFury]

I've season cancelled. My forecast will likely be busting big time for the EPAC (hyper active season) and I'm having serious reservations that the season will be above average in ACE.

A little too soon for season cancel I’d say for the East Pacific. Atlantic though, that’s something different.

Really? The Atlantic peaks later and it's not even August 15 yet.

[Kingarabian]

This season likely won't end up record breaking like 2018, but "season cancelling" would imply that the season won't happen at all, which it already has. We've had slightly below average activity so far.

It's likely this season will be slower than we've been used to since 2014, but I still think an ACE of 100+ is very achievable.

Na, when I season cancel I mean we wont be seeing those juicy systems we've seen from 2014-2018. It's very tough to have the EPAC get the numbers the Atlantic gets in its down years. My season cancel means we likely wont see more than 15 named storms and most of those systems will look pretty crappy. Of course I said the almost the same thing last year and I ate crow but the difference here is we're not entering an El Nino, we're struggling to get out of one.

[Astromanía]

If the season wasn´t this low on intensity terms would have been what many people were talking before the season start, I mean a season of longtracker systems that could be an horror for Hawaii, just look at this, it's only august but we have 3 systems that already treatened hawaii or were to close to the islands, if it wasn´t for that thing that prevent the storms to reach their expected potential it would have been a crazy season so far at this date. Still I expect more longtracker systems but weak, If conditions were like 2018 season, I think it could have had a chance to break ACE record but they're not.