2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[wxman57]

Whereas it might be unlikely to become a hurricane and maybe even a TS at this early stage, it isn't just the typically overdone GFS with hurricanes. Seven (14%) of the 0Z EPS members are hurricanes, with 5-6 being MHs. So, I wouldn't make a heavy bet that this won't become a H or even a MH. Let's see what the 12Z Euro suite shows.

There is an actually trackable TW. Conditions look prime ahead and looks like those favorable climate models were correct after all we shall see.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1680976201937047558?s=46&t=sStb56JhzYdUjITqDzKFmQ

Except conditions are not favorable as you would expect this time of year out there. 12Z Euro looks realistic (animation below), that is, a typical tropical wave heading west in the MDR in July with no development. The CMC pretty much agrees with the Euro also:

https://i.postimg.cc/52s3mWf7/ec-fast-uv850-vort-eatl-fh0-168.gif

When the GFS is the outlier, don't believe it. I think the wave near Africa will most likely track through the Caribbean without development.

[South Texas Storms]

There is an actually trackable TW. Conditions look prime ahead and looks like those favorable climate models were correct after all we shall see.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1680976201937047558?s=46&t=sStb56JhzYdUjITqDzKFmQ

Except conditions are not favorable as you would expect this time of year out there. 12Z Euro looks realistic (animation below), that is, a typical tropical wave heading west in the MDR in July with no development. The CMC pretty much agrees with the Euro also:

https://i.postimg.cc/52s3mWf7/ec-fast-uv850-vort-eatl-fh0-168.gif

When the GFS is the outlier, don't believe it. I think the wave near Africa will most likely track through the Caribbean without development.

Agreed. And the fact that the operational Canadian model and all of it's ensemble members don't develop this wave is quite telling. The Canadian is typically one of the more bullish models in showing TC genesis.

[SFLcane]

Whereas it might be unlikely to become a hurricane and maybe even a TS at this early stage, it isn't just the typically overdone GFS with hurricanes. Seven (14%) of the 0Z EPS members are hurricanes, with 5-6 being MHs. So, I wouldn't make a heavy bet that this won't become a H or even a MH. Let's see what the 12Z Euro suite shows.

There is an actually trackable TW. Conditions look prime ahead and looks like those favorable climate models were correct after all we shall see.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1680976201937047558?s=46&t=sStb56JhzYdUjITqDzKFmQ

Except conditions are not favorable (as you would expect this time of year out there). 12Z Euro looks realistic (animation below), that is, a typical tropical wave heading west in the MDR in July with no development. The CMC pretty much agrees with the Euro also:

https://i.postimg.cc/52s3mWf7/ec-fast-uv850-vort-eatl-fh0-168.gif

Lol oook. Conditions surely are favorable with a huge anticyclone as mentioned by Andy. Can’t really disregard Gefs and eps support. Euro is always late picking up disturbances. Will the wave take advantage is anyone’s guess.

[Teban54]

Except conditions are not favorable as you would expect this time of year out there. 12Z Euro looks realistic (animation below), that is, a typical tropical wave heading west in the MDR in July with no development. The CMC pretty much agrees with the Euro also:

https://i.postimg.cc/52s3mWf7/ec-fast-uv850-vort-eatl-fh0-168.gif

When the GFS is the outlier, don't believe it. I think the wave near Africa will most likely track through the Caribbean without development.

Agreed. And the fact that the operational Canadian model and all of it's ensemble members don't develop this wave is quite telling. The Canadian is typically one of the more bullish models in showing TC genesis.

Not necessarily: A few users have commented on how CMC went from "Constantly Making Cyclones" to "Can't Make Cyclones" at various times this year.

[BobHarlem]

Split the difference between the GFS and Euro/CMC and you have a weak depression or storm moving into the Caribbean. It'll be based on the easterlies and the forward motion. I think GFS is too slow and the Euro is too fast. Either way this area is probably going to get pretty far to the west, so I can't write it off.

[SFLcane]

[Spacecoast]

later +288 hr
12z EPS (Day 12) shows two groups... One through Bahamas / SFL w/ ~9-14% Tropical Storm chance, and another heads into Central America w/ <10% TS probability...


Still showing possibility of Hurricane (<10%) near eastern abaco islands, and SW FL:

[abajan]

Regarding the current area of interest, there's no trackable wave as yet (per the 18z surface pressure analysis). Will it appear on the 0z?

[jlauderdal]

GFS begins development on two systems in about 6 days.

EC trough has been dominant since late may

[LarryWx]

:uarrow: later +288 hr
12z EPS (Day 12) shows two groups... One through Bahamas / SFL w/ ~9-14% Tropical Storm chance, and another heads into Central America w/ <10% TS probability...
https://i.ibb.co/tY9MHrF/ec34.jpg

Still showing possibility of Hurricane (<10%) near eastern abaco islands, and SW FL:
https://i.ibb.co/G3QVsKk/ec35.jpg

Whereas the 0Z EPS had ~4 MH at 240, the 12Z EPS has none that I can see at 228.

[Kingarabian]

When the GFS is the outlier, don't believe it. I think the wave near Africa will most likely track through the Caribbean without development.

Agreed. And the fact that the operational Canadian model and all of it's ensemble members don't develop this wave is quite telling. The Canadian is typically one of the more bullish models in showing TC genesis.

Not necessarily: A few users have commented on how CMC went from "Constantly Making Cyclones" to "Can't Make Cyclones" at various times this year.

The days of the CMC spinning up any random cloud is over. It's been like this for the past 3 years. It's just as conservative as the Euro.

[AxaltaRacing24]

While development is not guaranteed, there is simply not enough evidence to currently rule it out. It needs to be watched

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1681005657841979395

[wxman57]

Euro has the wave moving much faster, reaching the western Caribbean at day 10 (as a wave). GFS has a TS ENE of the NE Caribbean at day 10, about 1700 miles from the EC's position. EC is probably right with the faster movement and weaker.

[Blown Away]

18z GFS =

[Spacecoast]

18 GFS seems to run into some trouble around +252 hr...

[BobHarlem]

Kind of impressed the 18z GFS track is nearly identical to the 12z (until the very end), even if the intensity dropped off a cliff.

[abajan]

Should this run materialize, it would be pretty serious for the Bahamas and Florida. Thankfully it's very long-range.

What a difference a run makes!

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EdPiotrowski/status/1681091501596581888

[ElectricStorm]

18z run is much more realistic, perhaps a TD/weak TS forming before falling apart due to shear near the islands. Still about a month too early to see any strong CV storms.

IMO chances of development are probably around 20-30% right now.