2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[USTropics]

I've circled the future wave to watch here on the latest satellite imagery. This should be splashing down off the African coast in 48-72 hours:


This can be tracked on the 00z ECMWF run (now the second run in a row showing development):


While the other global models have varying speeds with the tropical waves progression through the Atlantic, all are now showing development (GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and ICON):

[ChrisH-UK]

The models do have 2 potential TC's approaching the Caribbean in the next week, the first one could well be a TS if GFS is to be believed.

[WeatherBoy2000]

https://i.postimg.cc/wB8GJCB6/ec-fast-u ... 92-240.gif
12z Euro…

Well established escape route.

Although the euro/it's ensembles are showing a clear escape route, the geps/gefs are much less clear cut:

[Stratton23]

CMC and GFS definitely dont agree with a recurve like the Euro, both the GFS and CMC have the trough lifting out faster before it can snag that 2nd system, allowing for the bermuda high to build back, CMC looks like its heading toward the gulf due to the ridge, GFS into CA, this is also a scenario that is possible

[LarryWx]

I've circled the future wave to watch here on the latest satellite imagery. This should be splashing down off the African coast in 48-72 hours:
https://i.imgur.com/hEpBGf3.png

This can be tracked on the 00z ECMWF run (now the second run in a row showing development):
https://i.imgur.com/kjhVfhx.gif

While the other global models have varying speeds with the tropical waves progression through the Atlantic, all are now showing development (GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and ICON):
https://i.imgur.com/1EEBc45.gif

It appears to my eyeballs that the new runs (12Z GFS and CMC) are developing what is already just offshore Africa. They both have a TS in the Windward Islands on Mon July 1st. If so, that would mean 2 NS by July 1st vs avg of 1.5 for 1995-2023.
Please look and let me know your thoughts if you get a chance.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z UKMET has nothing classified as a TC through the end of the run (day 7).

[tolakram]

We have a thread for seasonal indicators, not here please.

[USTropics]

I've circled the future wave to watch here on the latest satellite imagery. This should be splashing down off the African coast in 48-72 hours:
https://i.imgur.com/hEpBGf3.png

This can be tracked on the 00z ECMWF run (now the second run in a row showing development):
https://i.imgur.com/kjhVfhx.gif

While the other global models have varying speeds with the tropical waves progression through the Atlantic, all are now showing development (GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and ICON):
https://i.imgur.com/1EEBc45.gif

It appears to my eyeballs that the new runs (12Z GFS and CMC) are developing what is already just offshore Africa. They both have a TS in the Windward Islands on Mon July 1st. If so, that would mean 2 NS by July 1st vs avg of 1.5 for 1995-2023.
Please look and let me know your thoughts if you get a chance.

That's correct. Last night's GFS runs showed both AEWs forming, the 12z run is now favoring the tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic (same for the 12z CMC operational):

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been repositioned to near 24W,
south of 15N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N-11N and between 22W-28W.

If it can stay low enough in latitude and avoid the SAL plume to the north, background forcing should keep it convectively active:


The second wave departing the coast in ~42 hours (orange) struggles with proximity to the leading wave and a significant SAL surge from its east (highlighted in blue):

[LarryWx]

1. The 12Z GEFS/GEPS have a rather strong signal for a TC impacting the Lesser Antilles ~7/1-3.

2. The 12Z Euro has no TC unlike the prior two runs.

[Stratton23]

Euro ensembles are quite a different story though , and the newest 12z EPS run also shows that a recurve is most definitely not a guarantee , thats a very large spread of outcomes- gulf to the east coast to out to sea

[ElectricStorm]

12z GFS stronger with the wave south of Cabo Verde. 994mb at hour 152 near the islands. CMC also has it now, we'll see if Euro jumps on board. I think we could see a lemon for it soon.

[skyline385]

12z EPS still decently active, most of the strong members are from the MDR wave which seems overdone for June with the ECAR trades.

[zzzh]

EPS has it everywhere, from EPAC to Bermuda
Monsoon trough/ITCZ breakdown is hard to forecast, especially when there are competing vortices in it. I'd wait until a TD forms to get a better idea of storm track

[IcyTundra]

CMC takes the MDR wave to just off the western tip of Cuba in 10 days.

[tiger_deF]

Every operational model except for the ECMWF develops the wave off of Africa in a matter of days, and ensemble activity is generally favorable as well. When a signal comes up this quick, especially in a climatologically unfavorable point in the season, it bears watching.


SAL is going to be the largest hindrance to development in the near future given the huge outbreak occurring. The 18z GFS shows the moisture pocket of the disturbance expanding as the monsoon trough breaks down, which could help create a favorable local environment.


Forecasting the track more than 5 days out is mostly speculation, since the intensity will play a large role, and the exact positioning of large scale features is unknown.

[BobHarlem]

The area shown by the ensemble plots above is on the 8pm TWO with 20% now.

[cycloneye]

The model runs will be posted at the thread for the wave south of CV Islands.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 2#p3068062

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS seems to be gung Ho with the wave over West Africa, I think that is something that needs to be watched in subsequent runs

[chaser1]

This GFS 156 hr. "double Tropical Storm landfall" forecast... sponsored by, the Legal Marijuana Farm Growers Consortium -
"Don't let the 2024 Hurricane Season Stress You Out "

[chaser1]

By the way, Larry or Austin Man? The GFS long range forecast does beg the question:

What is the historical records on earliest Atlantic season date having two simultaneous Tropical storms churning?