94L Invest (B0C),Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[Yankeegirl]

and any clue on the timeline for this? when its going to maybe come onshore, and when is the rain going to start??

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like this continues to get better organized. Even a little twist now visible in the clouds:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[Yankeegirl]

I just noticed that too!! you beat me to it!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

I just noticed that too!! you beat me to it!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

yes! I won the race!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am very surprised that JB hasn't chimed in yet this morning.

[Yankeegirl]

Yeah, but im a girl, your supposed to let us win....

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yeah, but im a girl, your supposed to let us win....

sorry. I'll let you win next time.

[Yankeegirl]

ok...

[Johnny]

I'm sure JB hasn't chimed in yet because he is unsure of what this thing will do, if anything. That's what he is tossing around right now.

[no advance]

Almost a td.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Okay No Advance, yes this is getting better organized but its not even close to being a TD.

[wxman57]

WXman57 you remind me of a guy named FranK that used to be here..he used to kill any kind of development(not saying this will develop) and one day Katrina formed after he said no way...an I have not seen him since..LOL

What I see on this forum are a lot of people who just cannot wait for that next storm. They want to believe that any puff of clouds in the tropics will be the next big hurricane. One might call that, well, that's considered a "bad word" here.

Oh, I was there once years ago when I was a kid. I wanted the next storm to develop so badly that I could taste it. Shear? What shear? Surely the shear will weaken! I need a storm now! But I'm in a position now that requires me to brief people who are making decisions that could cost them over a BILLION dollars! So I have to be very careful what I say about potential development in the tropics.

Believe me, when I see something that really looks like a threat to develop I'll be all over it here. If I'm bullish on development, you'd better pay attention.

I don't see that. Instead I see the shear maps showing a decrease, the satellites showing a blow up in convection, and other pro mets saying it has a chance. I don't see how this is -removed-. I see this more as concern. If something does develop I want to know about it as soon as possible so I can be prepared if it heads my way, but I am in no way wishing it here.

One thing I almost never look at would be shear maps. For the most part, I consider them worthless. The reason why I don't trust them is that many times, the models don't really have a good idea what the upper-level winds are across the tropics. Sometimes they're off 180 degrees!

What I do trust are my eyes. I can look at a satellite loop (WV is very good for that) and see how a system is being sheared, or I can look for rapidly moving cloud elements in the mid to upper levels in advance of a disturbance and determine where the areas of higher shear are.

If I can verify that the actual observations are very close to what a particular model initialized, then I might tend to trust a shear projection for the short range.

[vbhoutex]

Looking at the visible, there is still plenty of shear just to the North of the system and even more further North across the NW GOM. there will have to be quite a bit of relaxation of this shear for anything to start. Even though it is always a possibility that a TD or TS could develop in these conditions, what I am seeing ATM is a very wet weekend for much of S TX(entire coast) and SC TX without any TC development. It may be close, but it definitely has a ways to go before I would start to worry about more than a VERY WET WEEKEND with the probability of some flooding rains for some areas once again.

[corpusbreeze]

Looking at the visible, there is still plenty of shear just to the North of the system and even more further North across the NW GOM. there will have to be quite a bit of relaxation of this shear for anything to start. Even though it is always a possibility that a TD or TS could develop in these conditions, what I am seeing ATM is a very wet weekend for much of S TX(entire coast) and SC TX without any TC development. It may be close, but it definitely has a ways to go before I would start to worry about more than a VERY WET WEEKEND with the probability of some flooding rains for some areas once again.

I agree with what you said. Looks like some much needed rain for S. Texas, only draw back is it could cause some flooding.

[JPmia]

WXman57 you remind me of a guy named FranK that used to be here..he used to kill any kind of development(not saying this will develop) and one day Katrina formed after he said no way...an I have not seen him since..LOL

I thought Frank, who's posts I had liked a lot at first, had become too much biased toward no development. However, I absolutely do not put Wxman57 in that category. I consider him to be a fantastic poster (extremely knowledgeable, very clear communicator/writer, and OBJECTIVE). Quite simply, I consider him to be one of the best posters here. Since my time is limited and I often don't have enough time to read all the posts in a big thread, I'll sometimes skip right to his posts to get ASAP what I feel is the "real story". If he were to ever stop posting here, I'd consider it a huge blow to this BB. There aren't too many posters here for whom I'd say this. There are a good number of very good posters, but he is one of relatively few here I'd call outstanding. This BB is very fortunate to have him post here.

I concur 100%. Plus he's from my area, so I trust his oppinion.

I agree as well. I think all of us should give a little more deference to the Pro-Mets on this board. Nothing wrong with a little constructive criticism though and I am sure they don't mind it. They do make this board a step above others!

[SouthFloridawx]

Come on where are you guys with your graphics? I'm at work so I have limited access. You guys used to be all over with the latest graphics on everything. LOL but, seriously what do you guys think? Pretty persistent area there in the BOC Quite a concentration of storms off-shore.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is the latest Satellite picture. There seems to be a very concentrated area of convection in the central BOC with a little swirl beginning on it's west side. I would say that it is continuing to look better and better with each passing hour.

loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

The spin on the west side of the system is probably the result of decreasing shear.

[tailgater]

Looking at the visible, there is still plenty of shear just to the North of the system and even more further North across the NW GOM. there will have to be quite a bit of relaxation of this shear for anything to start. Even though it is always a possibility that a TD or TS could develop in these conditions, what I am seeing ATM is a very wet weekend for much of S TX(entire coast) and SC TX without any TC development. It may be close, but it definitely has a ways to go before I would start to worry about more than a VERY WET WEEKEND with the probability of some flooding rains for some areas once again.

I agree but I do have a question, the shear seems quite low over this system ATM so if it were to form a center, would it move quickly to the NW OR W OR N

[Johnny]

Check out the WV loop. A nice ball on convection just fired up. This might become nothing but it sure is looking nice.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html