Invest 97L: Comments, Sat Pics, Models Thread #3

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SouthFloridawx
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#441 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:48 pm

The Northeast Quad of this area is setting up fairly nicely.

Image
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#442 Postby Stratosphere747 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:48 pm

Not so much the shear, but seems as if a pocket of dry air is starting to appear just ahead of it.
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#443 Postby skysummit » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:49 pm

Isn't the 18z plots getting ready to come out any minute?
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#444 Postby rnbaida » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:49 pm

wxman57 wrote:Looks, to me, like it's about to blow up. Convection increasing rapidly, LLC becoming better-defined. I think it'll be TD 5 by 4pm CDT.

that is what i am seeing. just take a look at the water vapor....i have a 90% chance of this becoming a TD at 5pm.
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#445 Postby alan1961 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:49 pm

White Cap wrote:
alan1961 wrote:If this thing ever develops i'll eat my hat..to much wind shear coming off of South America..calm down guys :D


Would you like hot sauce with that? :D


i'd have 6 double macks with it too..and a bottle of sauce..and a bottle of jack daniels :D :D :D
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#446 Postby rnbaida » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:50 pm

Image


Huge convection....
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#447 Postby Damar91 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:50 pm

rnbaida wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Looks, to me, like it's about to blow up. Convection increasing rapidly, LLC becoming better-defined. I think it'll be TD 5 by 4pm CDT.

that is what i am seeing. just take a look at the water vapor....i have a 90% chance of this becoming a TD at 5pm.


Depending on what recon finds in the rest of the storm, maybe even Ernesto?
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#448 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:51 pm

wxman57 wrote:Looks, to me, like it's about to blow up. Convection increasing rapidly, LLC becoming better-defined. I think it'll be TD 5 by 4pm CDT.


Agreed. It looks ominous.
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#449 Postby bayoubebe » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:51 pm

Southfloridawx:

Thank you very much for posting the images.

Non-pros such as myself, who don't have too much of a clue with the technicalities, find it hard finding the right links to click on, how to interpret the images, etc.

Makes it much easier, and more convenient when someone such as yourself just goes ahead and posts an image from time to time with a simple comment.

Kudos! :)
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#450 Postby Damar91 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:52 pm

Brent wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Looks, to me, like it's about to blow up. Convection increasing rapidly, LLC becoming better-defined. I think it'll be TD 5 by 4pm CDT.


Agreed. It looks ominous.


Looks like you might of been right last night, after all!
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#451 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:52 pm

it would be nice to have a long tracker for us to watch... that is a storm that could hang aroudn for a while and generate lots of discussion and track probabilities and such. isn't that why we all come here?! these things are exciting to watch form and guess where they are going to go. -too bad the fallout is so bad when they get big. it makes you feel guilty that you can be so entertained by the shear power and then see the destruction and messed up lives they leave behind. :cry:
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#452 Postby Canelaw99 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:52 pm

Does someone have the water temp chart handy? I seem to recall that this blob is about to hit some nice, toasty waters, and if it is, that might help fuel it as we saw with storms last year....
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#453 Postby HeatherAKC » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:53 pm

Exactly where is the perceived center at this time? Long and Lat, please.....

:raincloud:
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#454 Postby Stratosphere747 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:53 pm

There is decent convection, but displaced from the center....
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#455 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:53 pm

Canelaw99 wrote:Does someone have the water temp chart handy? I seem to recall that this blob is about to hit some nice, toasty waters, and if it is, that might help fuel it as we saw with storms last year....


Image

Heat potential gets much better south of Jamaica.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 6235ca.jpg
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#456 Postby superfly » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:54 pm

12.5N, 62W or so
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#457 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:54 pm

let's just hope that since it's looking better at the moment that this doesn't start the absurd cat 3,4,5 posts like we saw yeterday..... :roll:
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#458 Postby Canelaw99 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:54 pm

TY Brent. Seems there's a batch of warmth that it will be coming to soon, then a larger area further west. Will be interesting to see what happens to it as it crosses those warm areas. I know I was amazed last year at the blowups that occurred over the warmer spots.
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caneman

#459 Postby caneman » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:55 pm

Brent wrote:
Canelaw99 wrote:Does someone have the water temp chart handy? I seem to recall that this blob is about to hit some nice, toasty waters, and if it is, that might help fuel it as we saw with storms last year....


Image

Heat potential gets much better south of Jamaica.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 6235ca.jpg


Brent, do you have a chart like that for GOM? Thanks
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#460 Postby seaswing » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:55 pm

rnbaida wrote:Image


Huge convection....


Looks like the West Indies are going to get some bad storms soon.
Last edited by seaswing on Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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