ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

Ntxw, despite the current lag we have behind 97-98, can we still use that year as an analog?

[Yellow Evan]

Dr. Kevin Trenberth from that video xtyphooncyclonex posted, is saying that we may we have entered a positive PDO state.

The PDO has been positive all year.

No reason to suggest we've entered an era of +PDO, especially considering we just exited one in 2007.

2007? I'd be inclined to say it was 1998 as somewhat suggested at http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/research/divi ... ca-pdo.cfm . I think 2003-06 was just an upward blip just like there was one the last 50's. However, stuff like this can be tricky. I think it's to soon to say the +PDO era is back though, we IMO won't know until we are there

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, despite the current lag we have behind 97-98, can we still use that year as an analog?

The problem is lack of data. It's the only event that had the WWB, heat content, early starts, and various other factors that we have measurements for. So in a sense we are forced to use that analog because we haven't had that kind of El Nino or conditions leading up to for quite some time to compare it to other than 97-98. Anything before 1992 is unreliable and sparse. And since then most of the Nino's have been relatively weak or west based and haven't evolved like what we are seeing. So in short, are we likely to see the strongest El Nino on record like 1997? No, it's not likely but we don't have any other reliable data that comes close to what we are seeing that we can compare to.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

1997 is still a good analog for this year. There is no El Niño after 1992, as ntxw stated in the times with more data that have started like this. The images below were at a similar period. These are surface skin temperatures, and they are not to be confused with Sea surface temperatures. Surface skin anomalies have higher variability and have different parameters.

Here is 1997



This year

[dexterlabio]

One difference between 1997 and this year is that most of the warm waters remains in place across Western Pacific and SE Asia, whereas in 1997 majority of the warmth was already transported to the Nino regions and EPAC..

[Alyono]

Those plots are NOT SST. Skin temp is a different parameter, and one that is more variable than SST

[Ntxw]

Should be interesting the update on Monday. It's beyond my ability to eyeball from the buoys at this point. Between an area bound by 2N/2S, 130W-170W (most of 3.4) is a swath of +1C anomalies.There's actually an unbroken link of 1C from the east to west. We won't get 1C though because the entire area includes 5N/5S. Something around 0.5-0.7C looks reasonable but difficult to eyeball.



Meanwhile 1+2 and 3 continues to be the heavy lifters




We really need to get these buoys up to date/fixed and add more instruments to this area of the world.It's unfortunate that we had better data from these buoys back in the 90s during those Nino's and Nina's than we do now, often broken.

[Kingarabian]

We really need to get these buoys up to date/fixed and add more instruments to this area of the world.It's unfortunate that we had better data from these buoys back in the 90s during those Nino's and Nina's than we do now, often broken.

Unfortunately, it will take a strong and damaging Nino for them to notice the drastic importance for them.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

PAGASA mentioned in the news yesterday that the El Niño this year would be less severe than 2009-10.

Don't they notice the warming is WAY ahead of that year? This year the first 0.5 anomaly was on May 7, while in 2009 it was June 17.

[Ntxw]

PAGASA mentioned in the news yesterday that the El Niño this year would be less severe than 2009-10.

Don't they notice the warming is WAY ahead of that year? This year the first 0.5 anomaly was on May 7, while in 2009 it was June 17.

Notice the crisp images such good buoys. Side note, there hasn't been this kind of warmth in May for any Nino in the 2000s. We've had a strong Nino to compare every decade since 1950 except for the 2000s.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

PAGASA mentioned in the news yesterday that the El Niño this year would be less severe than 2009-10.

Don't they notice the warming is WAY ahead of that year? This year the first 0.5 anomaly was on May 7, while in 2009 it was June 17.

Notice the crisp images such good buoys. Side note, there hasn't been this kind of warmth in May for any Nino in the 2000s. We've had a strong Nino to compare every decade since 1950 except for the 2000s.

And in the past decade, most El Niños were weak or non-traditional. Only 2014 has developed well traditionally and more rapidly than the past Niños. I get your point, that we have to compare it with the 1997, 1982, etc El Niños. This is the first major traditional El Niño (2006 was traditional, but developed very late) in the past 1.4 decades. Probably since 1950, we would be like the 3rd or 4th strongest yet.

[cycloneye]

Latest updated data of sub-surface graphics as of May 13 shows the large warm pool remaing intact for the most part but it has gone a tad smaller than in the past weeks.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Sorry if I have to disagree again, but the subsurface warm pool actually strengthened for the most part, in fact it even got larger although there has been weakening of the +5ºC anomalies. That pool is even stretching and getting larger for the past 2 updates. Some +3ºC & +4ºC anomalies are about to surface over Niño 1+2 and +2ºC over Niño 3 and 3.4.

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UNOFFICIAL ENSO OUTLOOK FOR MAY AND JUNE 2014

Niño 4 should warm up at or close to moderate status then cool down later this month then be at high end weak by the month of June. Niño 1+2 should remain above moderate status for the rest of the next 2 months, at times borderline strong. Niño 3.4, the main part, should retain Niño threshold this month and may reach borderline moderate status by late June, the same applies with Niño 3.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NOAA /CPC and BOM products.

[dexterlabio]

At this rate NOAA might declare EN by the end of the month. Of all brewing Nino's since 1997, this is the most impressive. Though personally, I still have doubt if this will develop into a strong one. There were years that had an ONI of 0.5 or above in AMJ period but didn't turn out as strong as 82/83 or 97/98 El Nino (ex. 1991, 2002). Maybe we can talk about a strong EN with more certainty come August?

[dexterlabio]

For some news, provinces in the southern part of the Philippines are starting to prepare for this El Nino. These are the areas that took the brunt of the past EN episodes since the strong 1982 episode, especially Davao province.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

At this rate NOAA might declare EN by the end of the month. Of all brewing Nino's since 1997, this is the most impressive. Though personally, I still have doubt if this will develop into a strong one. There were years that had an ONI of 0.5 or above in AMJ period but didn't turn out as strong as 82/83 or 97/98 El Nino (ex. 1991, 2002). Maybe we can talk about a strong EN with more certainty come August?

I absolutely agree with your statement. We can see a lot of uncertainty between intensity. I also have some doubt as it is quite early too tell (not minding I was SO bullish on intensity before) but we are seeing warming very rapidly. Niño region 1+2 warmed from moderate Niña threshold to moderate to near strong Niño threshold. Niño 3.4 and 3 may see higher anomalies in the next few weeks. Niño 1+2 and 4 will contribute much in the ONI reading as the latter achieve near moderate and the former has at least moderate status. They entire month would have all +0.5ºC readings in all readings, IMO.

[Ntxw]

Latest updated data of sub-surface graphics as of May 13 shows the large warm pool remaing intact for the most part but it has gone a tad smaller than in the past weeks.

http://oi62.tinypic.com/2quncxc.jpg

http://oi61.tinypic.com/263dc2g.jpg

It appears the reason why GODAS charts from CPC is so drastically different from TAO at the sub-surface is because of a buoy not working properly! This has been the case all along. The warm pool isn't actually disconnected it's the buoy going haywire and losing data right between the two!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Wait, what? Modoki?
Just kidding. These are just blips, like what happens to the other El Niños, classical or Modoki. This area is currently at the inactive, dry, negative phase of the MJO. It brings easterlies which result in cooling of the surface or more likely simply an ERROR. This area will warm significantly as some +3 or +4C anomalies will surface.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

SOI values for 17 May 2014
Average for last 30 days 1.6
Average for last 90 days -3.0
Daily contribution to SOI calculation 15.4

[jasons2k]

Check out this article on ocean heights. Has a comparison map to 1997:

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/ocea ... nino-17438