Models Developing a Strong Tropical Wave to Move Off Africa

[Hurricaneman]

it looks like the 0z went back to an near miss or big scare for the eastern seaboard again

[Stormcenter]

You gotta love it (GFS).

through the islands and up the EC.....thats a nice swing from NO to EC....

[Derek Ortt]

thats why one should not be using the long range GFS for anything other than laughs

a long range forecast says not much at all about a model's skillfullness

[Hurricaneman]

heres what i can see with the gfs, if it goes south of hispanola, its a gulf cane, but if it goes over or just north of hispanola it could be an east coast screamer but that run is 11 1\2 days away so things could change

[Stormcenter]

Or maybe it's none of the above.

heres what i can see with the gfs, if it goes south of hispanola, its a gulf cane, but if it goes over or just north of hispanola it could be an east coast screamer but that run is 11 1\2 days away so things could change

[ROCK]

You gotta love it (GFS).

through the islands and up the EC.....thats a nice swing from NO to EC....

Yeah after 144 its jacked....but I did notice TD 2 is toast in a few days if not sooner...

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 300
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE LOW MOVES TO THE WEST AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 300
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE LOW MOVES TO THE WEST AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

How is this not an invest? That sounds like it's on the verge of being a code red. Noticed they dropped the "slow" word.

[paintplaye]

Euro:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2009081300!!!step/

Shows our wave not coming close to any land at all.

[Aric Dunn]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 300
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE LOW MOVES TO THE WEST AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

How is this not an invest? That sounds like it's on the verge of being a code red. Noticed they dropped the "slow" word.

because .. it has not been over water long enough .. well now it has.. but there not going to add a invest in the middle of the night.. expect a invest by early to miday tomorrow...

[Aric Dunn]

The key point og the gfs is to realize that its most likely going to make to the islands.. before any chance of recurve...

[floridasun78]

i would wait untill monday model run to see what their do with maybe invest 90

[Aric Dunn]

i want to point this ..out...

this is the forecast for td 2 .. but i want to mention something interesting... the bamd or deep layer bamn model has a sharp left turn in the the forecast of TD2. with that being said.. this model showing a stronger Bermuda high building in and the timing of this wave and that high indicate that this wave (soon to be 90L ) will possibly have a blocking ridge in place when it reaches the islands, which means it will likely stay on a more southerly track through the islands and into the southern Bahamas. After that is way way to far out..

[Meso]

00z CMC's run... 240 hours... Strongest run yet

[KWT]

The ECM is interesting however I think its both too slow with this system and also moves it a little too much to the WNW when its in the Atlantic, though if it does go on to become a major then thats more possible.

Still the fact its about 200 miles behind the GFS at 72hrs means a massive deal for the islands, as the GFS shows it really does make the odds of it reaching the Caribbean far higher.

[HURAKAN]

90L is here!

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=106156&hilit=