2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Ivanhater]

06z Gfs spins up a system in the NW Caribbean and aims a hurricane at south Texas

[crownweather]

06z Gfs spins up a system in the NW Caribbean and aims a hurricane at south Texas

Second run in a row from the GFS showing a tropical system in the western Caribbean during early July. 00Z run showed it heading to Florida instead of Texas.

[toad strangler]

06z Gfs spins up a system in the NW Caribbean and aims a hurricane at south Texas

Second run in a row from the GFS showing a tropical system in the western Caribbean during early July. 00Z run showed it heading to Florida instead of Texas.

The 6z GFS inititates this way back at 222 hours but the origin seems rather spurious to me. A vort spit out off the N tip of Columbia rather than a transient wave. I know that it's possible for this to happen but I'm not keen on the GFS sniffing this type of scenario out at nearly 10 days. Probably a ghost.

[TheStormExpert]

06z Gfs spins up a system in the NW Caribbean and aims a hurricane at south Texas

Second run in a row from the GFS showing a tropical system in the western Caribbean during early July. 00Z run showed it heading to Florida instead of Texas.

The 6z GFS inititates this way back at 222 hours but the origin seems rather spurious to me. A vort spit out off the N tip of Columbia rather than a transient wave. I know that it's possible for this to happen but I'm not keen on the GFS sniffing this type of scenario out at nearly 10 days. Probably a ghost.

Well the GFS did good with sniffing out Cristobal so lets see if can sniff out future Dolly.

[toad strangler]

Second run in a row from the GFS showing a tropical system in the western Caribbean during early July. 00Z run showed it heading to Florida instead of Texas.

The 6z GFS inititates this way back at 222 hours but the origin seems rather spurious to me. A vort spit out off the N tip of Columbia rather than a transient wave. I know that it's possible for this to happen but I'm not keen on the GFS sniffing this type of scenario out at nearly 10 days. Probably a ghost.

Well the GFS did good with sniffing out Cristobal so lets see if can sniff out future Dolly.

True, but Cristobal was of much different origin than the GFS is showing here. Which basically is my point.

[Kingarabian]

Yesterday's 18z GFS Parallel has a disturbance developing in the SW Caribbean in about 10 days. Shows it becoming a hurricane, lifts it north and makes landfall in the eastern Panhandle area.

[GCANE]

00Z GFS showing an EPAC vort developing about 240 hrs out.
Crossing over the IoT into the BoC at about 258 hrs.
Spins up in the west GoM.
Heads toward LA, landfall 312 hrs.

Overall weak at this point.
Watching future runs.

[GCANE]

00Z GFS showing an EPAC vort developing about 240 hrs out.
Crossing over the IoT into the BoC at about 258 hrs.
Spins up in the west GoM.
Heads toward LA, landfall 312 hrs.

Overall weak at this point.
Watching future runs.

Looks like this is coinciding with a AEW forecast to come off the coast of Africa in about 84 hrs.
Hits 40W in about 132 hrs.
It then moves thru the Carib and starts to strengthen when it reaches Colombia at about 198 hrs.
GFS is has been very consitent, the last few days, in amplifying it as it then moves west.
Gets in the GOM same time the LL vort makes the crossover from the EPAC into the BoC.
Looks like a good setup so far.

[AnnularCane]

00Z GFS showing an EPAC vort developing about 240 hrs out.
Crossing over the IoT into the BoC at about 258 hrs.
Spins up in the west GoM.
Heads toward LA, landfall 312 hrs.

Overall weak at this point.
Watching future runs.

For a minute there I thought I was reading an old post about Cristobal.

[GCANE]

06Z GFS strengthens the wave to a surface low off Honduras.
Also, spins up the EPAC vort to a solid TC with no crossover.
Run-to-run indicating chances looking better for a West Carib / GoM TC sometimes around July 4 weekend.

[GCANE]

12Z GFS goes back to the crossover scenario with a subsequent warm-core spin up in the BoC.

[CyclonicFury]

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS, in less than 10 days, is trying to spin something up in the SW Caribbean again

[SouthFLTropics]

18z GFS, in less than 10 days, is trying to spin something up in the SW Caribbean again

Looks like by Friday, July 3rd, it tries to spin up something just east of the Bahamas as well. The early season is showing quite a bit of activity despite the SAL. Puts me on edge for August to October.

[floridasun78]

we need see other models wake up show area but not thing yet

[SFLcane]

:double:

https://i.imgur.com/QfCvmTz.png

Let’s see if the signal picks up. That's 1 maybe 2 members with legit TCs

[toad strangler]

:double:

https://i.imgur.com/QfCvmTz.png

Let’s see if the signal picks up. That's 1 maybe 2 members with legit TCs

This is true but given the time of year..... and to play devils advocate .... what business is there for any MDR signal this early?

[Ubuntwo]

0z Euro, in just over two days. That's another S/TS, in almost the same spot as Dolly. Looks like the vorticity comes from that thing formerly in the Gulf.

[GCANE]

GFS continues to amplify the west Carib wave.
Hits the Yucatan in 246 hrs.
Develops it the GOM.
Very consistent run-to-run strengthening.

[GCANE]

Run-to-run showing dramtically improved UL conditions in the GOM as it comes off the Yucatan.