2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[NotSparta]

Whoa, where did King TUTT go?

https://i.imgur.com/xsHCDkL.png

Western Caribbean it appears

[REDHurricane]

Every year around the 1st to the 15th of August when everyone is quite certain that the season is bust, I am always looking at the coast of Africa to see when those winds blowing the dust across the Atlantic start to migrate north, and if you look right now, it is starting to happen. Those huge plumes of dust are aimed more to the north than they were at the beginning of the month. I expect that will continue to progress. That is generally when the MDR "wakes up"

Spot on -- I haven't posted yet so far this Atlantic season because there's been nothing of note to talk about, and that's to be expected. No, there aren't any hurricanes now and there probably won't be any for the next few weeks per usual. Yes, the hurricanes are going to come starting around late August/early September like they always do. Wake me up on August 20th (give or take a week) and then we'll get to the interesting stuff.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Whoa, where did King TUTT go?

https://i.imgur.com/xsHCDkL.png

Still some hefty shear in the Caribbean, probably partially spurred by EPAC MJO. It will likely subside when it propagates away from there though.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Something we haven't seen much of this year:

[WeatherBoy2000]

The Euro weeklies is calling for an above avg August overall, especially during the middle of the month:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_tcyc_family_frequency?base_time=202507290000&parameter=Accumulated%20cyclone%20energy&valid_time=202509010000

[LarryWx]

The Euro weeklies is calling for an above avg August overall, especially during the middle of the month:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_tcyc_family_frequency?base_time=202507290000&parameter=Accumulated%20cyclone%20energy&valid_time=202509010000

My rough estimate of ACE progged by today’s Euro Weeklies:

Aug 4-10: 3
Aug 11-17: 8
Aug 18-24: 11-12
Aug 25-31: 13-14

These 4 weeks would add to ~36, meaning a notably more active than active era normal for August should today’s EW verify closely.

Since the active era began, 6 Augusts (1995-6, 1998-2000, and 2004) had significantly >36 ACE, while 18 had significantly <36. That leaves 6 Augusts fairly close to 36 (say 31-41): 2005, 2007, 2010, 2012, 2021, and 2023.

After those 6 Augusts, how was each Sept vs 1995-2024 climo? 2005, 2010, 2021, and 2023 were active while 2007 was inactive and 2012 was near avg.

How were the Octs? 2005, 2010, and 2012 were above avg while 2021 and 2023 were near avg and 2007 was quiet.

Other than hoping for another 2007, this isn’t encouraging for someone who wants an inactive season, especially considering the progged weak La Niña per RONI.

[NotSparta]

I remember last year there was a count of the total waves each season showing how 2024 was falling behind. I wonder how that looks now

[StormWeather]

I remember last year there was a count of the total waves each season showing how 2024 was falling behind. I wonder how that looks now

Unfortunately we don’t have a wave thread this year, otherwise we might have known.

[cycloneye]

I remember last year there was a count of the total waves each season showing how 2024 was falling behind. I wonder how that looks now

Hey Alex. Found what you were looking for, how many tropical waves have been introduced so far in 2025 and the countdown is at #25 with the one in Eastern Atlantic. This met from Venezuela Esteban Perdomo has done this for the past few years. Look at his account at X. I was lazy to start the waves thread.

https://x.com/EstebanWXcast

[cycloneye]

The Saharan air Layer in general has not been too dense like the 2020 one. Read Lowrys message.

https://michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/sa ... -show-this

 https://x.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1950582044133576825

[StormWeather]

The Saharan air Layer in general has not been too dense like the 2020 one. Read Lowrys message.

https://michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/sa ... -show-this

 https://x.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1950582044133576825

That’s ominous. How’s the Hadley cell doing? Because the MDR sucked in 2020 due to a stretched out cell, only allowing one deep tropics major in Teddy.

[NotSparta]

The Saharan air Layer in general has not been too dense like the 2020 one. Read Lowrys message.

https://michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/sa ... -show-this

 https://x.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1950582044133576825

That’s ominous. How’s the Hadley cell doing? Because the MDR sucked in 2020 due to a stretched out cell, only allowing one deep tropics major in Teddy.

It's been stretched out basically every year this decade aside from 2023 (Nino year), does not appear to be any different in 2025

[StormWeather]

The Saharan air Layer in general has not been too dense like the 2020 one. Read Lowrys message.

https://michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/sa ... -show-this

 https://x.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1950582044133576825

That’s ominous. How’s the Hadley cell doing? Because the MDR sucked in 2020 due to a stretched out cell, only allowing one deep tropics major in Teddy.

It's been stretched out basically every year this decade aside from 2023 (Nino year), does not appear to be any different in 2025

So how will that affect this season? I noticed that the Saharan dust is at its lowest on record. I saw something about 2020 and dust, and I presume that 2020 had pretty prolific dust outbreaks?

[cycloneye]

Webb's updated forecast.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1948151595952132487

[LarryWx]

Though 8/4-10 dropped due to no support likely partially related to little support for the current MDR AEW, the Euro Weeklies are slightly more ominous than yesterday’s for August’s ACE as a whole:

% of 2005-24 averages:
8/4-10: 80% (slightly lower than yest.)
8/11-17: 190% (slightly higher than yest.)
8/18-24: 210% (much higher than yest.)
8/25-31: 110% (same as yest)

Taken as a whole, these probably imply a prog of ~38 ACE for next month fwiw. Please don’t shoot the innocent messenger!

[chaser1]

Webb's updated forecast.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1948151595952132487

Hmmm, is it just me or did Webb seem um...... out of character??

[NotSparta]

Though 8/4-10 dropped due to no support likely partially related to little support for the current MDR AEW, the Euro Weeklies are slightly more ominous than yesterday’s for August’s ACE as a whole:

% of 2005-24 averages:
8/4-10: 80% (slightly lower than yest.)
8/11-17: 190% (slightly higher than yest.)
8/18-24: 210% (much higher than yest.)
8/25-31: 110% (same as yest)

Taken as a whole, these probably imply a prog of ~38 ACE for next month fwiw. Please don’t shoot the innocent messenger!

Not trying to shoot the messenger lol but do keep in mind these really did not do well last year. The drop inside 2 weeks but high values outside of it is a red flag. Wouldn't be surprised if next time this week we see the 8/11-17 come down too