2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Tailgater33]

Quite a little flare up NE Puerto Rico, shrimp look to it and all. Northern end of a wave. I haven’t been watching much but I don’t see it mentioned so I guess it’ll be puffed in the morning.

[ChrisH-UK]

You wake up and look at the satellites to see this and the models are like nope nothing, hmm.

[BobHarlem]

You wake up and look at the satellites to see this and the models are like nope nothing, hmm.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/6362/afVFde.gif [/url]

Has some vorticity also. (leftovers from 94L)

[Blown Away]

06z GFS... Now showing a weak signal with this area moving through NE Caribbean and fizzles out in the SE Bahamas...

[Blown Away]

12z GEFS... Definite uptick and intensity for a few members...


12z ECENS... Backing off on development...

[Stratton23]

Still cant write this wave off yet, Euro AIFS is sticking with its guns, still some support on the GEFS, it aint over till its over

[BobHarlem]

beyond the Canadian/EuroAI wave is the regular euro with this

[Stratton23]

00z ICON shows development of the wave ( that the Euro AI was showing development on )

[Stratton23]

CMC 00z On board with development, strong TS off shore of eastern US

[BobHarlem]

Standard operational 0z Euro is looking a lot closer to the AI now, fwiw. Although it doesn't really develop the system until it gets into the Gulf. Once there it's more bullish than the AI (979mb hurricane approaching LA there) And other wave following up east of it. AI this time is a little stronger east of Florida, but doesn't develop in the Gulf nearly as much. GFS hints at it too, but it takes the energy mostly over the Caribbean islands which keeps the thing weak. I have to wonder if the GFS shifted north of the islands if anything would change on it.



Ensembles like the system off the Carolinas -- operationals not so much. Ensembles aren't too keen on the MDR thing, however.

[ronjon]

06z Euro AI continues it's development of our wave with low crossing S FL and a tropical storm riding up the west coast of Florida. 00z Operational Euro on board with low developing into a 979 mb hurricane in the GOM. Still way out in the long range but models starting the perk up as we enter August.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Standard operational 0z Euro is looking a lot closer to the AI now, fwiw. Although it doesn't really develop the system until it gets into the Gulf. Once there it's more bullish than the AI (979mb hurricane approaching LA there) And other wave following up east of it. AI this time is a little stronger east of Florida, but doesn't develop in the Gulf nearly as much. GFS hints at it too, but it takes the energy mostly over the Caribbean islands which keeps the thing weak. I have to wonder if the GFS shifted north of the islands if anything would change on it.

https://i.postimg.cc/cJ3hk6cS/ecmwf-z850-vort-watl-fh135-360.gif

Ensembles like the system off the Carolinas -- operationals not so much. Ensembles aren't too keen on the MDR thing, however.

There's a third one in the MDR at the tail end of the run. Subject to change at this juncture obviously but this might be the model picking up on increased favorability as the MJO moves out of the Pacific and into our region of the world.

[Stratton23]

CMC develops a weak system that crosses florida and into the NE gulf

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET fwiw has TCG/a TD at 168 in the far NW Bahamas:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 26.9N 78.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.08.2025 168 26.9N 78.3W 1014 27

[StormWeather]

Anyone notice that the 00Z GFS run today wanted Iona’s remnants to survive all the way to the Philippines?

[BobHarlem]

This video is Bill Read and more talking with Mark Andersson one of the main folks behind the new Google Deep Mind model (NTWC)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPXebRV_KPE

[LarryWx]

The UKMET is back to having a TD form on the 0Z. But unlike yesterday’s 0Z, which developed the current central MDR wave that was moving NNW to threaten the SE US, this one forms on an old front just off the SE US coast. After forming, it crawls NNE to just offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast remaining as a TD:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 32.0N 75.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.08.2025 96 31.4N 75.7W 1010 29
1200UTC 04.08.2025 108 32.1N 74.8W 1012 25
0000UTC 05.08.2025 120 32.1N 75.0W 1013 25
1200UTC 05.08.2025 132 33.1N 73.9W 1015 23
0000UTC 06.08.2025 144 34.3N 73.9W 1015 23
1200UTC 06.08.2025 156 35.7N 73.6W 1014 30
0000UTC 07.08.2025 168 37.6N 73.0W 1012 28

——————-
*Edit: 0Z Euro is a bit similar to 0Z UKMET but with just a very weak sfc low rather than a TD. It similarly goes up the US E coast just offshore and the toward Cape Cod and Maine.