Rita Recon Reports

[superfly]

45 knot sustained, medium-strength TS.

Very good news.

Uh no... it's VERY close to being a hurricane.

I have seen nothing to support above a 60MPH TS. I still have no clue why NHC upgraded to 70MPH.

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 200257
AF304 0818A RITA HDOB 24 KNHC
0246. 2443N 07916W 03051 0158 059 048 082 082 048 03256 0000000000
0247 2442N 07918W 03048 0159 059 048 086 082 048 03254 0000000000
0247. 2441N 07919W 03049 0157 054 046 086 080 047 03253 0000000000
0248 2439N 07918W 03045 0152 051 044 086 078 044 03243 0000000000
0248. 2437N 07917W 03048 0150 051 044 086 078 044 03246 0000000000
0249 2435N 07916W 03049 0148 051 043 082 082 043 03244 0000000000
0249. 2434N 07916W 03048 0147 052 043 074 074 043 03243 0000000100
0250 2432N 07915W 03046 0146 060 039 070 070 039 03239 0000000000
0250. 2431N 07914W 03050 0145 058 041 072 072 041 03243 0000000000
0251 2429N 07913W 03048 0143 053 042 076 076 043 03239 0000000000
0251. 2428N 07912W 03047 0142 049 042 080 080 042 03237 0000000000
0252 2426N 07911W 03049 0141 047 046 076 076 046 03237 0000000000
0252. 2424N 07911W 03047 0141 047 046 080 080 047 03235 0000000000
0253 2422N 07911W 03049 0139 048 048 080 080 049 03235 0000000000
0253. 2419N 07911W 03047 0139 048 049 084 084 049 03233 0000000000
0254 2417N 07911W 03049 0139 046 050 086 082 050 03235 0000000000
0254. 2415N 07911W 03048 0137 044 050 084 084 051 03232 0000000000
0255 2413N 07911W 03048 0136 041 049 080 080 050 03231 0000000000
0255. 2411N 07911W 03048 0135 040 049 082 082 049 03230 0000000000
0256 2409N 07911W 03047 0134 039 046 068 068 048 03228 0000000000

[cycloneye]

UZNT13 KNHC 200246
XXAA 70037 99243 70788 08048 99007 25811 02532 00062 25206 02535
92745 21200 05053 85476 18015 07058 70121 07000 06560 88999 77999
31313 09608 80236
61616 AF304 0818A RITA OB 07
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 2426N07887W 0240 MBL WND 03038 AEV 20507 DLM W
ND 05550 007737 WL150 02535 075 =
XXBB 70038 99243 70788 08048 00007 25811 11968 22800 22850 18015
33740 12215 44697 05800
21212 00007 02532 11977 03040 22963 03037 33949 03546 44940 04050
55933 05046 66924 05054 77909 05055 88897 05562 99870 06554 11850
07058 22697 06560
31313 09608 80236
61616 AF304 0818A RITA OB 07
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 2426N07887W 0240 MBL WND 03038 AEV 20507 DLM W
ND 05550 007737 WL150 02535 075 =



Dropsonde.

[Brent]

From the discussion:

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
HAS REPORTED MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 59 KT 39 N MI
NORTHWEST OF OF THE CENTER...AND A CENTER DROPSONDE OF 992 MB WITH
33 KT SURFACE WINDS. BASED ON THE THIS...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990 MB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT.

If the winds haven't responded, they will.

[superfly]

Winds respond to what? 990mb pressure is not much lower than what it was before. I fully expect this to become a hurricane, but there is nothing that supports that it is more than a 60 MPH TS right now.

[NorthGaWeather]

45 knot sustained, medium-strength TS.

Very good news.

Uh no... it's VERY close to being a hurricane.

I have seen nothing to support above a 60MPH TS. I still have no clue why NHC upgraded to 70MPH.

Obviously they know more about the situation.

[Brent]

Winds respond to what? 990mb pressure is not much lower than what it was before. I fully expect this to become a hurricane, but there is nothing that supports that it is more than a 60 MPH TS right now.

990 mb supports a 70 mph storm though...

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 200307
AF304 0818A RITA HDOB 25 KNHC
0256. 2407N 07911W 03050 0131 040 044 056 056 045 03229 0000000000
0257 2405N 07911W 03046 0132 044 047 080 080 047 03225 0000000000
0257. 2403N 07911W 03048 0128 041 046 076 076 047 03224 0000000000
0258 2401N 07911W 03047 0128 042 047 058 058 049 03222 0000000100
0258. 2359N 07911W 03053 0127 050 051 060 060 053 03227 0000000100
0259 2357N 07911W 03046 0126 044 047 062 062 047 03219 0000000100
0259. 2355N 07911W 03047 0126 046 045 066 066 048 03220 0000000000
0300 2353N 07911W 03047 0126 049 045 078 078 046 03221 0000000000
0300. 2351N 07911W 03047 0126 043 042 084 084 043 03221 0000000000
0301 2349N 07911W 03050 0125 042 044 078 078 045 03223 0000000100
0301. 2347N 07911W 03045 0124 049 044 082 082 045 03217 0000000100
0302 2345N 07911W 03050 0123 045 046 084 084 046 03220 0000000000
0302. 2343N 07911W 03048 0123 040 046 088 088 046 03219 0000000000
0303 2340N 07911W 03048 0121 035 047 086 086 048 03216 0000000000
0303. 2338N 07911W 03045 0122 028 042 082 082 043 03214 0000000000
0304 2336N 07911W 03051 0121 024 041 082 082 042 03219 0000000000
0304. 2334N 07911W 03047 0121 018 039 088 088 040 03215 0000000000
0305 2332N 07911W 03050 0120 013 041 090 090 042 03218 0000000000
0305. 2330N 07911W 03047 0119 009 042 088 088 043 03213 0000000000
0306 2328N 07911W 03049 0119 007 046 086 086 047 03215 0000000000

[ConvergenceZone]

I think the Satellite signature alone shows that it's extremely close to becomming a hurricane. It looks ALOT better than it did earlier and I'm sure drops in pressure will soon follow. I thought it would be one on the 11:00 pm advisory, but I guess we will have to wait until the 2:00 am advisory to call it an official hurricane.

[cycloneye]

611
URNT11 KNHC 200302
97779 02434 30246 79118 30500 07040 06069 /3155
RMK AF304 0818A RITA OB 08

[superfly]

I have seen nothing to support above a 60MPH TS. I still have no clue why NHC upgraded to 70MPH.

Obviously they know more about the situation.

We have the same recon data as they do and the highest recon winds found were 67kts at 800-mb which corresponds to 61MPH surface winds.

Winds respond to what? 990mb pressure is not much lower than what it was before. I fully expect this to become a hurricane, but there is nothing that supports that it is more than a 60 MPH TS right now.

990 mb supports a 70 mph storm though...

They upgraded to 70MPH at 993mb. Plus, classification is based on winds when we have actual recon in there and not the pressure. Also as we have seen all season, pressure has not corresponded with winds well this year.

[superfly]

I think the Satellite signature alone shows that it's extremely close to becomming a hurricane. It looks ALOT better than it did earlier and I'm sure drops in pressure will soon follow. I thought it would be one on the 11:00 pm advisory, but I guess we will have to wait until the 2:00 am advisory to call it an official hurricane.

You don't base intensity on satellite when there's recon in there. Satellite suggests strengthening and I fully expect it to become a hurricane but it's been classified as a 70MPH TS since 2 PM EST and I've seen no data (besides the flawed microwave) that suggests anything higher than 60 MPH.

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 200317
AF304 0818A RITA HDOB 26 KNHC
0306. 2326N 07911W 03047 0118 007 047 082 082 048 03213 0000000000
0307 2323N 07911W 03048 0120 008 047 080 080 049 03215 0000000000
0307. 2321N 07911W 03047 0121 001 042 084 084 042 03215 0000000000
0308 2319N 07911W 03048 0119 358 040 088 088 041 03215 0000000000
0308. 2317N 07911W 03048 0120 358 037 088 078 037 03216 0000000000
0309 2315N 07911W 03048 0119 357 039 086 076 039 03215 0000000000
0309. 2313N 07911W 03048 0119 356 038 090 076 039 03215 0000000000
0310 2311N 07911W 03048 0119 353 035 096 066 035 03214 0000000000
0310. 2309N 07911W 03047 0119 352 034 098 064 034 03214 0000000000
0311 2306N 07911W 03049 0119 348 032 096 066 032 03216 0000000000
0311. 2304N 07911W 03049 0120 346 032 090 070 033 03216 0000000000
0312 2302N 07911W 03047 0119 343 032 092 070 033 03213 0000000000
0312. 2300N 07911W 03048 0119 346 031 092 070 031 03215 0000000000
0313 2258N 07911W 03048 0119 353 031 096 072 032 03215 0000000100
0313. 2256N 07911W 03048 0120 348 034 090 074 035 03216 0000000000
0314 2254N 07911W 03048 0121 343 037 090 070 037 03216 0000000000
0314. 2252N 07911W 03048 0122 338 040 086 072 040 03218 0000000000
0315 2250N 07911W 03047 0123 337 040 086 066 041 03218 0000000000
0315. 2248N 07911W 03052 0130 336 040 090 060 041 03230 0000000000
0316 2247N 07909W 03044 0125 335 037 088 054 038 03216 0000000000

[JTD]

[pressure has not corresponded with winds well this year.

That's not true. The winds catching up to match the pressure has taken a while but the winds whether it be in Emily, Dennis or Katrina have ALWAYS caught up to the pressure.

[NorthGaWeather]

I have seen nothing to support above a 60MPH TS. I still have no clue why NHC upgraded to 70MPH.

Obviously they know more about the situation.

We have the same recon data as they do and the highest recon winds found were 67kts at 800-mb which corresponds to 61MPH surface winds.

Winds respond to what? 990mb pressure is not much lower than what it was before. I fully expect this to become a hurricane, but there is nothing that supports that it is more than a 60 MPH TS right now.

990 mb supports a 70 mph storm though...

They upgraded to 70MPH at 993mb. Plus, classification is based on winds when we have actual recon in there and not the pressure. Also as we have seen all season, pressure has not corresponded with winds well this year.

There's a reason they work at the NHC and you don't.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think the Satellite signature alone shows that it's extremely close to becomming a hurricane. It looks ALOT better than it did earlier and I'm sure drops in pressure will soon follow. I thought it would be one on the 11:00 pm advisory, but I guess we will have to wait until the 2:00 am advisory to call it an official hurricane.

You don't base intensity on satellite when there's recon in there. Satellite suggests strengthening and I fully expect it to become a hurricane but it's been classified as a 70MPH TS since 2 PM EST and I've seen no data (besides the flawed microwave) that suggests anything higher than 60 MPH.

They must have had some reason for doing it. They are the professionals after all. Perhaps they are seeing something others aren't. Again, they must have had their reasons for making it 70 mph.

[cycloneye]

URNT14 KNHC 200303
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
INBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01222 10763 13148 10807 20033
02223 20765 23143 20807 20033
03225 30767 33137 30707 21033
04226 40770 43129 40808 21035
05227 50772 53107 50606 22041
06229 60774 63083 60707 24038
07231 70775 73057 71110 23016
MF229 M0774 MF051
OBS 01 AT 01:44:00Z
OBS 07 AT 02:09:30Z
OBS 01 SFC WND /////
OUTBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01235 10779 13052 11210 04036
02237 20781 23076 21010 06046
03238 30783 33103 31107 06055
04240 40785 43122 40909 07054
05242 50787 53131 50707 07056
06244 60789 63143 60707 06055
07245 70791 73154 70808 06047
MF238 M0782 MF059
OBS 01 AT 02:18:10Z
OBS 07 AT 02:42:30Z
OBS 07 SFC WND /////
AF304 0818A RITA OB 09

[superfly]

I think the Satellite signature alone shows that it's extremely close to becomming a hurricane. It looks ALOT better than it did earlier and I'm sure drops in pressure will soon follow. I thought it would be one on the 11:00 pm advisory, but I guess we will have to wait until the 2:00 am advisory to call it an official hurricane.

You don't base intensity on satellite when there's recon in there. Satellite suggests strengthening and I fully expect it to become a hurricane but it's been classified as a 70MPH TS since 2 PM EST and I've seen no data (besides the flawed microwave) that suggests anything higher than 60 MPH.

They must have had some reason for doing it. They are the professionals after all. Perhaps they are seeing something others aren't. Again, they must have had their reasons for making it 75 mph.

Well, my personal opinion is that the reason was to give the Keys more incentive to evacuate but I won't get into that.

[Brent]

Well, my personal opinion is that the reason was to give the Keys more incentive to evacuate but I won't get into that.

What is wrong with that exactly???

[ConvergenceZone]

and it really doesn't matter anyway since it will probably be upgraded on the next advisory

didn't mean to get off topic here, back to the recon reports